Posted on 11/01/2004 7:17:09 PM PST by Bosco
Rain Monday night, all day Tuesday.
Is this good news?
Is Columbus a Republican or democrat area?
It matters except when it doesn't.
Good. Libbies don't like the rain. Much easier to stay home eating Ding-Dongs and watching Okra.
Franklin County was carried by Gore in 2000. But, not by a huge margin
I think this will be good. People without jobs who usually vote for government handouts will stay home if it's raining hard.
Heavy democrat...let it rain.
Aha! The Halliburton Election Day Rainmaking Voter Suppression machine has come online. Karl Rove's diabolical weather altering scheme is worthy of C. Montgomery Burns!
Not sure it matters much. The Demonrats have gotten many of their zombies to vote early. Besides, weather is not much of a factor inside prisons or 6' underground in graveyards, where many of their voters live. Furthermore, their big weapons, the lawyers, will be indoors all day filing suits.
Columbus went for Gore last time (lots of Gov't employees in Franklin county) but those visits from the governator should help push it towards Bush.
On and off rain forecasted for Cleveland all day, too.
The republican operatives supposedly like rain. I am not sure if it makes a difference. The big joke today is now "Rove made it rain"
My take is that it's bad for democrats... they aren't energized about sKerry. Imagine waiting in line for several hours (if turnout is as high as anticipated by the MSM) in the rain and cold to vote for someone you aren't that passionate about.
On the other hand, the republican base is generally more passionate about our candidate. That combined with a strong GOTV effort should work in our favor.
I didn't know Columbus was as big as it is until I went up there and did some work. Big City, huge inner city.
Midwest
A cold front sliding eastward through the Ohio Valley will keep much of the lower Midwest damp, although by late in the day, the precipitation should be confined to the Ohio Valley and extreme southern Missouri. Morning voters across southeastern Michigan, southeastern Indiana and much of Ohio will have to dodge raindrops. Sunny skies are expected over the Plains and Upper Midwest. High temperatures should be close to seasonal averages with readings mostly in the 40s and 50s, the 60s in the Ohio Valley.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1265700/posts
Well, if it's anything like Minnesota, (where it is currently raining) it's a good thing. Inclement weather tends to keep the bicycle crowd away.
I'm thinking that shards of glass and rain are good for glass crawling Ohio Republicans.
Weather Impact on Presidential Elections
Political scientists and even the average voter have speculated that weather can influence voter turnout by making people less willing to brave foul weather to go to the polls. (“It's too cold and this rain is terrible. Does my vote really matter that much to make it worth it?”) There is an old saying in New York that a rainy day is good news for the Democratic candidate because Republicans in rural upstate New York would not brave the elements, whereas the Democratic supporters in the urban areas would be less inconvenienced to vote ( Source : The Weather Factor , David Ludlum, p. 102.).
Voter turnout is a key focus of all political campaigns, with campaign managers frequently citing that low voter turnout in key areas of support for their candidate is a missed opportunity of sorts to gain valuable votes in all races, but especially in close races.
With the 2004 presidential election resembling a neck-and-neck horse race down to the wire, any factor that could impact voter turnout or sway voters to one candidate or another is especially interesting. There is ample evidence to support the role of weather influencing voter turnout in previous elections.
Historical Cases
In his book The Weather Factor , David Ludlum cites nine elections from 1840 to 1976 as having a weather influence. Of them, six involved weather conditions being favorable in Northeastern states (especially New York ) to the point where had foul weather occurred in those key states, the election outcome may have been changed. This includes the 1976 election, when Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford by 54 electoral votes. Weather was mild in Ohio and Hawaii , two states where the election was very close. Had turnout been reduced because of adverse weather, the results of the election may have been different.
There are 3 other cases Ludlum cites where foul weather played a role, most notably 1916 (according to Ludlum) when Woodrow Wilson defeated Charles Evan Hughes, in part due to a very narrow victory in California . In the morning, a winter storm had dumped over a foot of snow in the mountainous areas of northeastern California , where Democratic support was strong. Had the storm lasted longer, Wilson may have received fewer votes from his supporters there, and the election could have changed.
Forecast
Ohio
Statewide voter turnout in Ohio was down in 2000 (62% of registered voters) compared to 1996 (66%) and 1992 (76%), with some light rain scattered across the state. Other factors likely came into play here with the weather, though, as the rain was not that heavy, and the counties that saw rain did not see voter turnout decrease more than counties with no rain.
(snip)
EXPECTED VOTER TURNOUT: Moderately Affected
NOTE: Follow the link for more state forcasts.
http://www.us.weathernews.com/weathertovote/
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