Posted on 11/02/2004 10:41:28 AM PST by GulliverSwift
LANCASTER COUNTY, PA - Lancaster County voters, turning out in massive numbers, gave President Bush a wide but not unexpected lead over Democrat John Kerry early this morning, a New Era exit poll found.
The Republican president grabbed a more than 2-to-1 margin over Kerry, the survey of 167 voters at 23 polling places found. In all, 70 percent said they chose Bush, and 30 percent said they chose Kerry.
Turnout was extraordinarily heavy across the county. At some of the polling places, the line of voters was 100 — and in one case 200 — deep, the wait at least an hour.
In interviews, voters who chose Bush said overwhelmingly that they did so because of his strong position on homeland security and the fight against terrorism.
“I think he’s tough on terror and experienced in dealing with it,” said Neil Kalvelage, 33, a Hershey Foods worker who lives in Manheim Township and chose Bush.
“He’s not going to put outside global political issues above what he thinks is best for America.”
Other Bush supporters cited the president’s character as the reason they voted to re-elect him.
“I think he’s honest, sincere and moral. He does have the best interest of the country at heart,” said Anna Gerlitzki, 57, a saleswoman from Columbia. “He pulled this country together on 9-11 and he pulled the economy together.”
Those who chose Kerry, on the other hand, said they have serious misgivings about Bush’s decision to invade Iraq in March of 2003, a war that has now led to some 1,100 U.S. troop deaths.
“I voted for John Kerry because my cousin is in Iraq,’’ said Nijia Jackson, 26, of Lancaster. “We want to bring our troops home.’’
Kerry supporters also said they believe the Democrat would do more to improve the economy.
“I just don’t think the U.S. can take Bush for four more years on the economy,” said Troy Sheaffer, 26, of Manheim. “A lot of friends are losing jobs and can’t raise their families on any $8-an-hour job they can pick up. It’s ridiculous.”
Bush’s wide margin in early-morning voting lays the groundwork for a potential record-setting victory here.
Local Republicans have said they are shooting for at least 125,000 votes for the president in Lancaster County. But if the turnout here reaches 70 percent, and Bush maintains his large lead, the overwhelmingly conservative county could well give Bush 140,000 votes.
Of the county’s 287,000 active registered voters, 60 percent or roughly 172,300 are Republicans, and 26 percent or 73,600 are Democrats.
Bush’s margin this morning was not unexpected. In 2000, he beat his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, about 66 percent to 31 percent. Bush got about 115,000 votes to Gore’s 60,500.
Today, Bush’s support was strongest in the city’s immediate suburbs and rural parts of the county. He was winning in those townships by a 3-to-1 margin, the New Era exit poll found.
Becky Martin, 35, an accounting manager from East Donegal Township, said Bush appealed to her because he seemed more genuine during the debates than did Kerry.
“A lot of coverage said John Kerry won the debate because he appeared more presidential, but there are a lot more than appearances when you’re actually going to lead the country,” she said.
Bush was winning in boroughs by a 2-to-1 margin.
In the southern Lancaster County borough of Quarryville, Elvis Ridley, 32, voted for Bush because of the president’s stances on religious issues such as abortion and gay marriage.
“We can not get rid of the Ten Commandments,’’ said Ridley. “I don’t see why the Bible is even being debated.’’
In the northeast part of the county, Marty Nissly, 47, of Denver Borough, explained her vote for Bush this way: “I believe he has the same Christian values that I do. I think that John Kerry is insincere, and I don’t think he’s given us credibility.”
In Lancaster City, home to only 12 percent of the county’s registered voters, Kerry was beating Bush by about 60 percent to 40 percent in early voting.
City resident Shalya Marsh, 27, an artist, voted for Kerry “mainly for my right to choose, but I think the current president isn’t doing a good job. He’s alienating the international community and that frightens me,” she said.
The New Era exit poll is only a snapshot of early morning voting activity, but it has proven in past years to be a reliable indicator of voter preferences. The survey was conducted between 7 and 9:15 a.m. by eight New Era reporters.
The poll focused solely on the race for president, but county voters were also selecting candidates for U.S. Senate and House, as well as the General Assembly and Pennsylvania row offices: attorney general, auditor general and treasurer.
Lancaster is THE most conservative county in the state. Also, if there is going to be an "AMish Vote" that's where it will show. 2/3rds Bush there no big deal, but if turnout goes above 80% there its great.
It's Amish Country.
South Central PA...
Is 2:1 enough in this county (if it holds up in other, similar counties) to overcome Rendell-land?
Yes and the Amish vote comes pounding home
Might be enough to overcome the fraud in Philly...
I had all but conceded PA to Kerry.
Maybe it will surprise us!
If I'm not mistaken, Lancaster County has a big Amish population that is solidly backing GWB.
Nope. Lancaster County is mostly rural Amish farm country, not even close to sufficient to offset Philadelphia County.
East of Harrisburg and west of Philly; real Amish country.
Good salt-of-the-earth folks. I expect no less of them.
Amen!
True, but Santorum said earlier that PA overall is looking good so far!
me too... i had it in the same boat as DC
This is going to be good.. :-)
Keep the faith everyone!
We'll need every voter from this District/County to overcome Philadelphia.
You missed my question, I think. I certainly don't think your county will offset: what I'm asking is, what % of your vote has to go R to be indicative of a Bush win in OH? 50% 70%?
Rush stopped short of predicting a Bush win in PA, but at the end of his show yesterday he did say don't be surprised to see Bush win there. He specifically mentioned great numbers in W. PA.
You missed my question, I think. I certainly don't think your county will offset: what I'm asking is, what % of your vote has to go R to be indicative of a Bush win in PA? 50% 70%?
I sure hope this continues!!! GO PA!!!!!!
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