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Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 1, 2004 5:00pm)
*Please note that Zogby Final predictions
will come out Election Day at 5 pm*

**2004 Presidential Election**
	Electoral Votes:
Bush	252
Kerry	252
Tie	Virginia (13)
Tie	Pennsylvania (21)

Here's how we got there...

2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:

**George Bush (Electoral Vote)**
UT	5	KS	6
WY	3	MS	6
ID	4	SC	8
AK	3	IN	11
NE	5	KY	8
ND	3	AL	9
MT	3	GA	15
SD	3	LA	9
OK	7	TX	34

**John Kerry (Electoral Vote)**
ME	4	MD	10
VT	3	CT	7
IL	21	HI	4
RI	4	NY	31
DE	3	MA	12
NJ	15	DC	3
CA	55

Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142

Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

**2004 Battleground States:**
	2000	2004 Our Call	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
	%Margin	%Margin
Arizona (10)*	Bush + 6.28%	Bush 6%	10	-
Arkansas (6)*	Bush + 5.44%	Bush 3%	6	-
Colorado (9)	Bush + 8.36%	Kerry 3%	-	9
Florida (27)	Bush + 0.01%	Bush 3%	27	-
Iowa (7)	Gore + 0.31%	Kerry 5%	-	7
Michigan (17)	Gore + 5.13%	Kerry 6%	-	17
Minnesota (10)	Gore + 2.4%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Missouri (11)*	Bush + 3.34%	Bush 3%	11	-
Nevada (5)	Bush + 3.55%	Bush 5%	5	-
New Hampshire (4) *	Bush + 1.27%	Kerry 5%	-	4
New Mexico (5)	Gore + 0.06%	Kerry 3%	-	5
North Carolina (15)*	Bush + 12.83%	Bush 3%	15	-
Oregon (7)*	Gore + 0.44%	Kerry 10%	-	7
Ohio (20)	Bush + 3.51%	Bush 4%	20	-
Pennsylvania (21)	Gore + 4.17%	Tie	-	-
Tennessee (11)*	Bush + 3.86%	Bush 4%	11	-
Virginia (13)*	Bush + 7.00%	Tie	-	-
Washington (11)*	Gore + 5.58%	Kerry 11%	-	11
West Virginia (5)*	Bush + 6.32%	Bush 4%	5	-
Wisconsin (10)	Gore + 0.22%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Battleground State Totals			110	80
Current Grand Total:			252	252

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 12:23pm)
*Please note that Zogby Final predictions will
come out Election Day at 5 pm*

(11/1/2004)