Zogby has OH, FL going to Bush... VA, PA toss-up.

Zogby ^ | 11/2/04 | Deezle

[deezle]

This looks good to me... because Bush will get VA and it seems like CO and NM should be pretty easy too.

http://www.zogby.com/

[StJacques]

Here is Zogby's final Electoral Map:





How many of you think Colorado will go for Kerry? And how about leaving Virginia as "undecided"?

[rmgatto]

Correction: VA for kerry?

[connectthedots]

Blue states lost seven, so it was a 14 EV swing.

[tdewey10]

I'm with you--but don't delete the thread, rename it.

[Lunkhead_01]

I can't believe that VA, NM, and CO will not be in the Bush column at the end of the day. If we take the rest of Zogby at face value, that is, all the other RED and BLUE states as being RED and BLUE and PA being a toss up, we have Bush 279, Kerry 238, Undecided 21. So the final ADJUSTED (loved it don't you) Zogby would be either Bush 300, Kerry 238 or Bush 279, Kerry 259.

(I am also not convinced that Zogby has the upper Midwest right either.)

[cvq3842]

PLEASE, LET'S ALL MAKE SURE WE'RE ALL DOING EVERYTHING WE CAN, IN ADDITION TO POSTING HERE. WE ALL APPRECIATE THE UPDATES, BUT THERE'S A LOT MORE TO DO TO GET THE VOTE OUT TODAY! I PLAN TO LOG OFF AND WORK ALSO!

MY APOLOGIES IN ADVANCE TO ANYONE OFFENDED BY MY MESSAGE. ALL I WANT IS WHAT YOU WANT - A BIG BUSH WIN!!!

GOD BLESS, ALL.

[tfelice]

PA is looking good for Bush. Turnout is very high in the burbs. Also there is a heavy first time turn out among the Amish and Mennonite communities, all of which goes for Bush. Incidentally, those folks are unable to be contacted for polling which I think makes up for any gap that Bush has had in recent polling.

[nina0113]

No need to delete the thread - it's not POSSIBLE to suppress the Free Republic vote.

[CyberAnt]

Are you sure - because it was REPUBLICANS who brought the case - and the OHSC has already ruled last night that repubs can have poll watchers. I don't recall this being about any dems.

[Coldwater Creek]

Too many military for the Dem to take Virgina.

[HenryLeeII]

Kerry pulled his people out of Virginia two or three weeks ago, and the only advertising I see on TV is for the local congressional races. If Zogby thinks we're going for Kerry, he needs another cup of Kool-Aid to just go ahead and finish himself off...

[beyond the sea]

Zogby is a moron, ignore him for the rest of the day.

Zogby is a moron, ignore him for the rest of your life!

[CAluvdubya]

Just wait, pretty soon Zogby will have Calif. as a toss-up. hahahahaha! Zogby's next job.....Straight man in comedy duo hitting the circuit in Reno. (not good enough for Vegas).

[Coldwater Creek]

Snow doesn't matter, sand storms do.

[EGPWS]

Actually Zogby has it as a tie and whoever wins PA wins the election.

What changed Zogbys mind this time?

[Luis Gonzalez]

Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 1, 2004 5:00pm)
*Please note that Zogby Final predictions
will come out Election Day at 5 pm*

2004 Presidential Election

	Electoral Votes:
Bush	252
Kerry	252
Tie	Virginia (13)
Tie	Pennsylvania (21)

---

Here's how we got there...

George Bush (Electoral Vote)

UT	5	KS	6
WY	3	MS	6
ID	4	SC	8
AK	3	IN	11
NE	5	KY	8
ND	3	AL	9
MT	3	GA	15
SD	3	LA	9
OK	7	TX	34

John Kerry (Electoral Vote)

ME	4	MD	10
VT	3	CT	7
IL	21	HI	4
RI	4	NY	31
DE	3	MA	12
NJ	15	DC	3
CA	55

Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142

Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:

	2000	2004 Our Call	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
	%Margin	%Margin
Arizona (10)*	Bush + 6.28%	Bush 6%	10	-
Arkansas (6)*	Bush + 5.44%	Bush 3%	6	-
Colorado (9)	Bush + 8.36%	Kerry 3%	-	9
Florida (27)	Bush + 0.01%	Bush 3%	27	-
Iowa (7)	Gore + 0.31%	Kerry 5%	-	7
Michigan (17)	Gore + 5.13%	Kerry 6%	-	17
Minnesota (10)	Gore + 2.4%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Missouri (11)*	Bush + 3.34%	Bush 3%	11	-
Nevada (5)	Bush + 3.55%	Bush 5%	5	-
New Hampshire (4) *	Bush + 1.27%	Kerry 5%	-	4
New Mexico (5)	Gore + 0.06%	Kerry 3%	-	5
North Carolina (15)*	Bush + 12.83%	Bush 3%	15	-
Oregon (7)*	Gore + 0.44%	Kerry 10%	-	7
Ohio (20)	Bush + 3.51%	Bush 4%	20	-
Pennsylvania (21)	Gore + 4.17%	Tie	-	-
Tennessee (11)*	Bush + 3.86%	Bush 4%	11	-
Virginia (13)*	Bush + 7.00%	Tie	-	-
Washington (11)*	Gore + 5.58%	Kerry 11%	-	11
West Virginia (5)*	Bush + 6.32%	Bush 4%	5	-
Wisconsin (10)	Gore + 0.22%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Battleground State Totals			110	80
Current Grand Total:			252	252

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 12:23pm)
*Please note that Zogby Final predictions will
come out Election Day at 5 pm*

(11/1/2004)

[Legion04]

hopefully zogby is right, and the latest exit polls (as per drudge) are wrong.

[SilentServiceCPOWife]

I just voted in VA and I politely declined the Democrat sample ballot offered to me. The woman sighed and said, "I guess I better get used to this". There is no way in hell that Kerry will take VA.

[processing please hold]

I thought on Fox, Zogby said Co. was going Kerry?

[BladeLWS]

Zogby is trying to get it right at the last second, because if he's off by to much at the end no one will listen to him anymore lol.