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OH Update: Jay Cost (This Should Just About Do It)
Jay Cost | 11/2/04 | Jay Cost

Posted on 11/02/2004 8:58:59 PM PST by LS

Bush nets 20,000 votes in Butler County, Cincinnati Suburb.

Bush nets 856 in NE Wayne County. Bush still up 1.7% in NE Ohio...waiting on more Cuyahoga.

Bush nets 1990 in Marion County, West Central

West Ohio...Bush nets 2,900 votes in Darke County.

Central Ohio...reports my Hawkeye, [JAY MEANS "BUCKEYE"] "Good news for Bush. Bush up significantly in the following counties: Clark +5 (big county) Greene +3 (big county) Ross +2.6 (med county) Down BIGTIME in Coshocton (9% down) but it's a really SMALL county. All of the other 16 counties in my group, Bush is doing better by about 1-3%. But these are smaller counties (but every vote counts). Maybe down by a fraction of a point in a couple small counties."

Bush holding his own in Dayton and Columbus, reports another Hawkeye [BUCKEYE]: "Bush's percentage increase is about 1%. With 60% in Franklin (Columbus), Bush is ahead 50-49.5 -- he lost it 48-47 in 2000. With 73% in Montgomery (Dayton), Kerry is ahead 50-49 -- in 2000, Gore won it by 50-48."


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: bush; election2004; kerry; napalminthemorning; ohio
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To: Pitiricus

I agree, bro! Get that chick some ludes or something.


21 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:29 PM PST by RayStacy
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Relax Ohio is the key.

Look here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/county.000.html

I did the math, extrapolated remaining outstanding votes and assumed the trend stays steady

I come up with :
Bush: 2.214 mm
Kerry: 2.168 mm

Others, check my math.

Looks good.


22 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:36 PM PST by L`enn
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE
I guess we really have to wait.......even more.....for our final exuberance! Again, we wait till the fat lady sings!

Now the question is, after last time, can we celebrate even after the MSM calls the race for the President? Profound.
23 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:43 PM PST by SolomoninSouthDakota (John Kerry purposefully went after the wrong goose in the wrong place at the wrong time.)
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To: LS

Why on NBC did they just say that people in OH are still voting? I've been trying to NOT watch tv lest I get an ulcer.


24 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:48 PM PST by sockmonkey
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To: LS

Whoo Hoo!


25 posted on 11/02/2004 9:04:35 PM PST by ladyinred (John Kerry has a plan to change the national symbol of an Eagle to a Chicken)
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Would you please stop posting this on every freaking thread?


27 posted on 11/02/2004 9:04:49 PM PST by Trust but Verify (Their candidate uses rock stars to attract crowds. Ours IS a rock star!)
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To: LS
LS, many thanks for your cogent & reliable comments in the lead-in to election -- especially as relate to Ohio.

You da man (or lady ...)!!

28 posted on 11/02/2004 9:04:50 PM PST by dodger
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To: RayStacy

I know you cannot say from my name but it is... sister... :-)


29 posted on 11/02/2004 9:05:17 PM PST by Pitiricus
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To: Cedric

Don't know, don't care. The action is in the south. I'm a Vince Lombardi guy: Don't care what their D is, only care about running MY play. My play is the south puts this away.
If they can't win BIG in Montgomery, it's over.


30 posted on 11/02/2004 9:05:37 PM PST by LS
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To: Cedric

I am worried about Cuyahoga - look at these numbers:


It has only 741/1437 precints in!


31 posted on 11/02/2004 9:06:28 PM PST by pittsburgh gop guy
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To: LS

Bush is going for Ohio.

I am continuing to analyze by county. Cuyahoga was Kerry's only hope. It cannot pull him ahead. Kerry people say Athens can pull him ahead but it cannot provide more than 4000 additional votes-- still not enough.

It is looking great for Bush to win Ohio.


32 posted on 11/02/2004 9:06:32 PM PST by lonestar67
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To: LS
Tim Russert seems to agree with you.

So far, Bush is performing better in Ohio this year than in the 2000 election.

33 posted on 11/02/2004 9:07:02 PM PST by george wythe
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To: pittsburgh gop guy

Yeah, it's been stuck at 52% but jumped to 67%. Bush now leads by 119,000 in Ohio, and I see 55,000 more votes to Kerry based on Cuyahoga and Summitt County projections, still leaving a nice padding of a 64,000 lead for Bush.


34 posted on 11/02/2004 9:08:42 PM PST by cons_Mark
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To: Pitiricus

Apologies. Looks like we're gonna pull it out, yes? Hope and pray, hope and pray.


35 posted on 11/02/2004 9:09:28 PM PST by RayStacy
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To: dodger

Man, sir. Or madame.


36 posted on 11/02/2004 9:10:48 PM PST by LS
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To: pittsburgh gop guy

If you project out the existing vote in Cuyahoga from the 741 precincts which are 2 to 1 for Kerry, Kerry gains 225,000 votes. Bush gains 130,000 votes. This is not enough to change Bush's lead.

They would finish

2.069 million for Bush
2.028 million for Kerry

Kerry loses. Realize, that this is by counting ONLY Cuyahoga-- the most democratic and most populous Ohio county. Most of Ohio's 88 counties are strong Bush country.

It was all riding on Cuyahoga.


37 posted on 11/02/2004 9:10:57 PM PST by lonestar67
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To: cons_Mark

I think Kerry gets 80-85k in cuya - not 50

hopefully it is not enough either way......


38 posted on 11/02/2004 9:11:18 PM PST by pittsburgh gop guy
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To: lonestar67

Praise Ja-HEE-zus.


39 posted on 11/02/2004 9:11:59 PM PST by LS
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To: lonestar67

"Cuyahoga was Kerry's only hope."

Kerry: "Help me Obi-Wan Cuyahoga-i, you're my last hope."

C3P0: "I suggest you let the Bushies win."


40 posted on 11/02/2004 9:13:26 PM PST by Go_Raiders ("Being able to catch well in a crowd just means you can't get open, that's all." -- James Lofton)
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