[Congressman Billybob]

I am only one of many well-grounded people both here on FreeRepublic and in the blogosphere who understand American politics better than most people in the MSM. It ain't that hard, folks. We just dig harder for the facts and then pay attention to them when we find them.

Is that so difficult? I don't think so.

[RobFromGa]

What does Kerry do next, does he drag this through litigation?

[rikkir]

"What does Kerry do next, does he drag this through litigation?"
Same question from me o wise one of the tarheel mtns, can Kerry now cheat his way into the White House?

[WOSG]

I expected an 8 point lead for Bush ... it looks to be 3-4 points. Evan Thomas was wrong - the MSM isnt good for 15%, it's been reduced to being good for around 5%. JMHO.

Comepensation:

Sen John Thune.
Sen Tom Coburn.
+4 GOP pickup in the Senate (SD,NC,SC,GA,FL,LA, -IL, -CO)

[King Prout]

You Da Man

[King Prout]

There are people who really understand the dynamics of American elections. But they are more likely to be somewhere in the blogosphere than to be on the network news or published in the MSM.

side note: this is true for just about every field of human endeavor, aside from "being a DNC cat's-paw"

[weegee]

Media Schadenfreude and Media Shenanigans PING

[newgeezer]

US: Alabama; US: Alaska; US: Arizona; US: Arkansas; US: California; US: Colorado; US: Connecticut; US: Delaware; US: District of Columbia; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Hawaii; US: Idaho; US: Illinois; US: Indiana; US: Iowa; US: Kansas; US: Kentucky; US: Louisiana; US: Maine; US: Maryland; US: Massachusetts; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Mississippi; US: Missouri; US: Montana; US: Nebraska; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: New Jersey; US: New Mexico; US: New York; US: North Carolina; US: North Dakota; US: Ohio; US: Oklahoma; US: Oregon; US: Pennsylvania; US: Rhode Island; US: South Carolina; US: South Dakota; US: Tennessee; US: Texas; US: Utah; US: Vermont; US: Virginia; US: Washington; US: West Virginia; US: Wisconsin; US: Wyoming;

Unsure how this (vanity?) thread qualifies as local news for all those states, I will agree that you sure do know your politics! ;O)

[Robert A Cook PE]

Subtle.

Accurate!

[KOZ.]

my prediction..... Congressman Billybob running for Congress :)

[neverdem]

You got this veteran nailed. The 35% of veterans for Kerry are probably almost all formerly drafted veterans and lifelong dems.

[Constitution Day]

Congressman Billybob's latest!

Please FRmail Constitution Day, TaxRelief OR Helms if you want to be added to or removed from this North Carolina ping list.

[Alia]

Excellent analysis, Congressman Billybob! There's one point you didn't bring up: You aren't having to kiss up or suck up to an MSM agenda, in order to keep your job, or get a promotion.

I did some interviewing here in NC -- I found among sensible Kerry supporters -- their lament and wish AFL-CIO Unions would come to NC. I pointed how, very succintly and point by point -- HOW UNIONS BANKRUPTED CALIFORNIA. And how forced Union Members have to pay "dues" against their will when those very dues are being used in political ways which are totally against an individual's political choices. All they could do is stare at me blankly. It was clear, these people had NO CONCEPT of how Unions have been destroying the economies of numerous cities, counties and possibly states in the United States.

[Mike Fieschko]

When the political scientists finish analyzing this election, here’s what they will find: Unions are the both the money and volunteer backbones of the Democrat Party. But unions have been shrinking steadily in their percentage in the population. Union households are now only about 14 percent of all households. On the other hand, households which have a veteran in them are now about 26 percent of all households.

These demographic changes have been occurring for some time, and it is correct to note them.

Have you pondered the Roe Effect?

From the article:

[The Roe Effect is] "theory is that abortion is making America more conservative than it otherwise would be.

"[Assuming that] liberal and Democratic women are more likely to have abortions. [And] that children's political views tend to reflect those of their parents ... on average. Thus abortion depletes the next generation of liberals and eventually makes the population more conservative."

[Gritty]

Nice article. How you managed to write up something coherent like this at three something in the morning is beyond me. Even Brit Hume was unable to do simple addition or subtraction and stay awake by then, much less write about it.

Don't feel too bad about the innaccuracies of some of your predictions, Congressman. You had the trend nailed and the direction zeroed. Even the Great Zogby missed those! Dick Cheney told us the numbers two weeks ago and we should have listened to him, 52-48.

But you probably could not have anticipated in your wildest dreams a scant two months ago just how deeply the MSM were in the tank for their stooges and the lengths they would go to throw this election to their friends. If it weren't for their stellar help, your 10% prediction would have held or been exceeded, IMHO.

The fact this election was so close when the other side was running such a dud should just give us pause to reflect on how much more serious work is needed to be done in this country to ensure our survival as a free people.

[NCSteve]

Is that so difficult? I don't think so.

Your results are pretty good, John. Predicting the outcomes of elections is a lot harder than most people realize. It requires a modicum of common sense and a willingness to listen to what Joe Sixpack is actually saying (or in some cases, what he is not saying).

So on two accounts, journalists fail those criteria. First, common sense. These are the people who Mark Twain advised us failed at ditching and shoe making. We cannot possibly hold expectations of journalists that are too low. Second, willingness to listen. Journalists substitute ego for brains. Listening to Joe Sixpack means they might actually have to come in close contact with said entity. Since they aren't likely to do that at a Washington/New York/Chicago/Los Angeles cocktail party, the very idea is just too low to contemplate. They would much prefer having someone collect exit polls for them so they can pontificate at a safe distance.

As much regard as I have for Brit Hume, for example, he was genuinely horrified last night when it turned out that exit polling data was utterly and completely bogus. He looked like a man caught with a flat tire and no tools.

Until and unless the media leave their elitism behind, they will continue to drift further and further out of touch with the reality of American politics. I have no solution for the overall mental acuity of the press, maybe it is our fault because we demand so little of them. On the bright side, elections should get more entertaining every cycle as we can now open up the office pool to bet on just how wrong the media's predictions will be.

[Delphinium]

Is that so difficult? I don't think so

No it is not.

I am a woman with little, or no formal education who understands this stuff.

I am proud to say I understood so well that I planned and executed a campaign with little, or no help,(or money) except my candidate, and we took out one of the last democrats standing in Idaho.

He was a popular, 8 term democrat and I was told several times by republicans who supported him, it was impossible to beat him.

Maybe this is one of the 121 seats at the state level you predicted.