Posted on 11/03/2004 5:21:48 PM PST by zamboni
The Bush win is even stronger than it looks
The pundits have made much of the point that this was pretty much a repeat of the 2000 election and that the election map looks almost identical to four years ago. In 2000, Bush won 30 states and this time he won 31.
There are only three states that are different from 2000. This time New Mexico and Iowa went for Bush and New Hampshire went away from Bush.
However, this misses the real strength of the Bush win. Bush did not just repeat what he did in 2000. He went way beyond that by dramatically increasing his percentage of the vote in many states across the nation. He did better than he did the last time in 32 states altogether, including many of the states that he did not carry. Seventeen of these states had a shift of five percentage points or more for Bush and four had a double digit shift for Bush.
The top ten states showing a significant shift for Bush are shown below, which include some of notable Democrat strongholds:
State |
Bush % Shift |
Alabama |
12 |
Hawaii |
10 |
Oklahoma |
10 |
Tennessee |
10 |
New Jersey |
9 |
Connecticut |
8 |
Rhode Island |
8 |
Louisiana |
7 |
New York |
7 |
Here is the complete list:
State |
2000 Bush Margin |
2004 Bush Margin |
Margin Change |
Alabama |
14 |
26 |
12 |
Alaska |
31 |
27 |
-4 |
Arizona |
6 |
11 |
5 |
Arkansas |
5 |
9 |
4 |
California |
-11 |
-11 |
0 |
Colorado |
9 |
7 |
-2 |
Connecticut |
-18 |
-10 |
8 |
Delaware |
-13 |
-7 |
6 |
District of Columbia |
-76 |
-81 |
-5 |
Florida |
0 |
5 |
5 |
Georgia |
12 |
18 |
6 |
Hawaii |
-19 |
-9 |
10 |
Idaho |
39 |
38 |
-1 |
Illinois |
-12 |
-10 |
2 |
Indiana |
16 |
21 |
5 |
Iowa |
-1 |
1 |
2 |
Kansas |
21 |
25 |
4 |
Kentucky |
16 |
20 |
4 |
Louisiana |
8 |
15 |
7 |
Maine |
-5 |
-8 |
-3 |
Maryland |
-16 |
-13 |
3 |
Massachusetts |
-27 |
-25 |
2 |
Michigan |
-5 |
-3 |
2 |
Minnesota |
-2 |
-3 |
-1 |
Mississippi |
17 |
20 |
3 |
Missouri |
3 |
8 |
5 |
Montana |
25 |
20 |
-5 |
Nebraska |
29 |
35 |
6 |
Nevada |
4 |
3 |
-1 |
New Hampshire |
1 |
-1 |
-2 |
New Jersey |
-16 |
-7 |
9 |
New Mexico |
0 |
1 |
1 |
New York |
-25 |
-18 |
7 |
North Carolina |
13 |
12 |
-1 |
North Dakota |
28 |
27 |
-1 |
Ohio |
4 |
2 |
-2 |
Oklahoma |
22 |
32 |
10 |
Oregon |
0 |
-4 |
-4 |
Pennsylvania |
-5 |
-2 |
3 |
Rhode Island |
-29 |
-21 |
8 |
South Carolina |
16 |
17 |
1 |
South Dakota |
22 |
21 |
-1 |
Tennessee |
4 |
14 |
10 |
Texas |
21 |
23 |
2 |
Utah |
41 |
44 |
3 |
Vermont |
-10 |
-20 |
-10 |
Virginia |
8 |
9 |
1 |
Washington |
-5 |
-7 |
-2 |
West Virginia |
6 |
13 |
7 |
Wisconsin |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
Wyoming |
40 |
40 |
0 |
9th Circus Court of Appeals. Barbara Boxer. Gray Davis. Willie Brown. Uh...San Francisco. Scott Peterson, Robert Blake, O.J. Simpson, Rodney King. Kobe Bryant. Hollywood.
And, if you want to go back a generation: Charlie Manson and Watts.
With apologies to Freepers and other normal people trapped out there, let's face it: it's a waste of real estate.
Thanks. I knew this, but I hadn't seen all the numbers quite like this. Very good.
I was wondering about this myself - how did the turnout on both sides affect each state from the last election. Great research !!!
This is fascinating. Good post!
A most excellent post. Thanks for the great info.
Recent years? Not much. But if you go back more than a few, you'll leave out RR and RMN, so be nice. LOL. Some of us *are* trapped out here.
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