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The Bush win is even stronger than it looks

Posted on 11/03/2004 5:21:48 PM PST by zamboni

The Bush win is even stronger than it looks

The pundits have made much of the point that this was pretty much a repeat of the 2000 election and that the election map looks almost identical to four years ago. In 2000, Bush won 30 states and this time he won 31.

There are only three states that are different from 2000. This time New Mexico and Iowa went for Bush and New Hampshire went away from Bush.

However, this misses the real strength of the Bush win. Bush did not just repeat what he did in 2000. He went way beyond that by dramatically increasing his percentage of the vote in many states across the nation. He did better than he did the last time in 32 states altogether, including many of the states that he did not carry. Seventeen of these states had a shift of five percentage points or more for Bush and four had a double digit shift for Bush.

The top ten states showing a significant shift for Bush are shown below, which include some of notable Democrat strongholds:

State

Bush % Shift

Alabama

12

Hawaii

10

Oklahoma

10

Tennessee

10

New Jersey

9

Connecticut

8

Rhode Island

8

Louisiana

7

New York

7

Here is the complete list:

State

2000 Bush Margin

2004 Bush Margin

Margin Change

Alabama

14

26

12

Alaska

31

27

-4

Arizona

6

11

5

Arkansas

5

9

4

California

-11

-11

0

Colorado

9

7

-2

Connecticut

-18

-10

8

Delaware

-13

-7

6

District of Columbia

-76

-81

-5

Florida

0

5

5

Georgia

12

18

6

Hawaii

-19

-9

10

Idaho

39

38

-1

Illinois

-12

-10

2

Indiana

16

21

5

Iowa

-1

1

2

Kansas

21

25

4

Kentucky

16

20

4

Louisiana

8

15

7

Maine

-5

-8

-3

Maryland

-16

-13

3

Massachusetts

-27

-25

2

Michigan

-5

-3

2

Minnesota

-2

-3

-1

Mississippi

17

20

3

Missouri

3

8

5

Montana

25

20

-5

Nebraska

29

35

6

Nevada

4

3

-1

New Hampshire

1

-1

-2

New Jersey

-16

-7

9

New Mexico

0

1

1

New York

-25

-18

7

North Carolina

13

12

-1

North Dakota

28

27

-1

Ohio

4

2

-2

Oklahoma

22

32

10

Oregon

0

-4

-4

Pennsylvania

-5

-2

3

Rhode Island

-29

-21

8

South Carolina

16

17

1

South Dakota

22

21

-1

Tennessee

4

14

10

Texas

21

23

2

Utah

41

44

3

Vermont

-10

-20

-10

Virginia

8

9

1

Washington

-5

-7

-2

West Virginia

6

13

7

Wisconsin

0

-1

-1

Wyoming

40

40

0



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bushvote; gwb2004
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To: NetSurfer
I'm surprised GWB and the Republican congress even acknowledge CA as part of the union. With the exception of Ahnold, what has CA contributed to mainstream America in recent years?

9th Circus Court of Appeals. Barbara Boxer. Gray Davis. Willie Brown. Uh...San Francisco. Scott Peterson, Robert Blake, O.J. Simpson, Rodney King. Kobe Bryant. Hollywood.

And, if you want to go back a generation: Charlie Manson and Watts.

With apologies to Freepers and other normal people trapped out there, let's face it: it's a waste of real estate.

21 posted on 11/03/2004 6:21:52 PM PST by daler
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To: zamboni

Thanks. I knew this, but I hadn't seen all the numbers quite like this. Very good.


22 posted on 11/03/2004 6:23:42 PM PST by SittinYonder (Tancredo and I wanna know what you believe)
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To: zamboni

I was wondering about this myself - how did the turnout on both sides affect each state from the last election. Great research !!!


23 posted on 11/03/2004 6:29:43 PM PST by 11th_VA (VRWC Local 1077)
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To: zamboni

This is fascinating. Good post!


24 posted on 11/03/2004 6:37:30 PM PST by NYCVirago
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To: zamboni

A most excellent post. Thanks for the great info.


25 posted on 11/03/2004 6:42:47 PM PST by Starboard
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To: daler

Recent years? Not much. But if you go back more than a few, you'll leave out RR and RMN, so be nice. LOL. Some of us *are* trapped out here.


26 posted on 11/03/2004 7:46:20 PM PST by NetSurfer (All your provisional ballots are belong to us.)
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