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Could Bush have won Pennsylvania if he would have endorsed Toomey instead of Spector?
Don'tmoveon.org ^ | 11/4/04

Posted on 11/04/2004 8:30:06 AM PST by truthandlife

Could President Bush have won Pennsylvania if he would have endorsed Toomey instead of Spector? Toomey lost in the Republican primary (49½ to 50½ %). Things were looking pretty good for Toomey until Bush weighed in. He could have left it at a pro-forma statement of support, but instead he came to Pittsburgh to stand beside Specter and say: "I appreciate my friendship with Arlen Specter. He's been a friend for quite a while. I'm proud to campaign for him. I think he's earned another term in the United States Senate. He's a bit independent-minded sometimes, but there's nothing wrong with that."

Concerning this independence of mind, Ann Coulter writes: "More than any other person in America, Arlen Specter is responsible for a runaway Supreme Court that has turned every political issue into a 'constitutional' matter, giving radical liberals an uninterrupted string of victories in the culture wars."

When Toomey seemed to be closing the gap despite kind words from on high for his opponent, Specter put out campaign ads with the theme "Pat Toomey vs. George W. Bush" and touted Bush’s support in a last minute blitz of telephone calls.

Now Arlen Spector at a news conference less than 12 hours after winning a record fifth Senate term, Specter wasted no time in asserting himself.

"If you have a race that is won by a percent or two, you have a narrowly divided country, and that's not a traditional mandate," he said. "President Bush will have that very much in mind."

Could Bush have won Pennsylvania if the Republicans would have had a more conservative candidate to vote for in the Senate? Would more conservatives have voted in Pennsylvania?

What does Bush and the Senate need to do to punish Arlen Specter?


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: battleground; gwb2004; specter; toomey

1 posted on 11/04/2004 8:30:07 AM PST by truthandlife
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To: truthandlife

I dunno...I think Toomey would have lost in PA.


2 posted on 11/04/2004 8:32:12 AM PST by RockinRight (Bush's rallies look like World Series games. Kerry's rallies look like Little League games.)
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To: truthandlife

Yes - that and "supressing" the massive voter fraud in Philly...


3 posted on 11/04/2004 8:33:04 AM PST by 2banana (They want to die for Islam and we want to kill them)
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To: RockinRight

We'll never know if Toomey would have won. But we'd still be better off with 54 senators and no Chairman Specter.


4 posted on 11/04/2004 8:33:26 AM PST by The Old Hoosier (Right makes might.)
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To: RockinRight

Specter got more votes than John Kerry in PA. There were over 150,000 people who voted for Kerry and Specter. None of those people would have voted for Pat Toomey. Arlen Specter is arguably the most popluar politician in Pennsylavnia. It sucks, but that's the truth.


5 posted on 11/04/2004 8:33:55 AM PST by Dems_R_Losers (Proud Reagan Alumna!)
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To: truthandlife
I think Bush could have won Pennsylvania if we could exclude Philadelphia, he could have won Michigan if we could exclude Detroit, he could have won Winconsin if we could exclude Milwaukee, and I think he may had a chance in Illinois if we could exclude Chicago.
6 posted on 11/04/2004 8:34:04 AM PST by longhorn too
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: truthandlife
No, Philadelphia is to much dead weight dragging the whole state down. I supported Toomey in the primaries and did not vote for Sphincter. The conservative turnout here in Berks county was incredible and I don't think it could have been much better.
8 posted on 11/04/2004 8:34:53 AM PST by ol painless (ol' painless is out of the bag)
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To: 2banana

I don't quite understand why the Republicans didn't do more about vote fraud this time around in Pennsylvania. Bush was suppose to win in 2000 with Ridge in office and he lost because of vote fraud. Same thing in 2004 because of governor Ed Rendall's Democrat Vote Fraud Machine.

I


9 posted on 11/04/2004 8:35:05 AM PST by truthandlife (http://www.neverforgetneveragain.com -- If you want Bush re-elected pass on this video link!!!!)
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To: truthandlife

Not likely, sorry.


10 posted on 11/04/2004 8:35:47 AM PST by HitmanLV (I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.)
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To: RockinRight

>>>>I dunno...I think Toomey would have lost in PA.

I don't think you just ask if Toomey would have won or lost. You also have to ask what his place on the ticket would have meant for Bush. I'm guessing that some PA conservatives, disgusted with Bush's endorsement, stayed home. The results in PA just don't seem to match the results elsewhere in my mind.

I think they would have come and voted if Toomey had been on the ballet, and its hard to say how much that could have helped the president there.

patent


11 posted on 11/04/2004 8:36:18 AM PST by patent (A baby is God's opinion that life should go on. Carl Sandburg)
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To: truthandlife

No way to win PA until you get Pilly votes from 80% Demon to 65% Demon


12 posted on 11/04/2004 8:37:09 AM PST by Rippin
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To: truthandlife
I despise Specter as much as anyone around here, but there's no way that Bush couldn't back him. Bush is the leader of the party, and the party's incumbents NEED to know that the party won't sandbag them. Bush's backing of Specter didn't earn him any loyalty from Specter himself, but it certainly earned him the loyalty of many other officeholders. They know they can count on the Big Man, no question at all.

Toomey will be back. There's talk of putting him up against Rendell.

13 posted on 11/04/2004 8:37:18 AM PST by Physicist
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To: truthandlife

See:

Phillly Fraud by the numbers (a logical look at Philadelphia)


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1268546/posts


14 posted on 11/04/2004 8:37:19 AM PST by 2banana (They want to die for Islam and we want to kill them)
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To: Dems_R_Losers
There were over 150,000 people who voted for Kerry and Specter.

These votes were from the Union-bots. The AFL-CIO endorsed Specter over Hoeffel.

15 posted on 11/04/2004 8:38:18 AM PST by Mannaggia l'America
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To: truthandlife

Toomey would have definitely lost. However, it would have made no difference to Bush's showing in PA. I can understand how many think think the senate Republicans would be better off without Specter, but I disagree. This is likely Specter's last term, and I don't see him actively blocking the President's judicial selections.


16 posted on 11/04/2004 8:39:24 AM PST by Yancey Ward
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To: truthandlife
No. The fix was in by Rendell. Philadelphia county delivered the additional 300K votes required to carry PA. Oddly no one was suspicious that the largest county in the state was the first to post their returns while the smaller ones arrived much later.
17 posted on 11/04/2004 8:45:00 AM PST by PA Engineer (Liberalism is a Hate Crime-Liberate America from the occupation media!)
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To: truthandlife
The short answer to this question is no.

It's based on a fundamentally incorrect assumption that conservatives didn't turn out, or if we did, we didn't vote for the President. The GOTV effort in PA was huge, and successful. And conservative Republicans went for Bush. We were angry over the endorsement, and we're still angry because Specter is such a hyperinflated windbag who's done so much to harm the conservative cause, and because unlike GWB and Rick Santorum, we know he isn't finished with that yet.

The "Republicans" who went for Kerry are Country Clubbers living in the Philly suburbs. Last time, they went for Gore. This time, they went for Kerry. If anything, Specter could have helped us with this group: they're his kind of "Republican." He did not. To my knowledge he didn't even make a single positive statement about the President during the campaign, anywhere, anytime.

To win Pennsylvania, Bush needed to flip two areas. He needed to get the votes of ethnic Catholics in Coal Country who went for Reagen twice. He made some progress, but he didn't get as much as he needed. He also needed to flip the Philly suburbs back into the Republican column. He didn't.

Theories about rampant fraud or derailment by angry conservatives don't wash. Fraud happens, but you don't come up 125,000 votes short. No significant number of conservatives was so determined to punish Bush that they stayed home. The stakes were too high.

Those of us who know Specter knew we wouldn't have to do anything to punish the President for his foolish lapse: Specter is going to punish Bush plenty in the next four years, without any help from deranged right wingers.

18 posted on 11/04/2004 8:47:59 AM PST by FredZarguna (Ready now thy pajamas. For the Dark Queen begins to gather all evil things unto herself.)
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To: truthandlife
I think Bush had a slight chance of winning PA if Specter wasn't on the ballot. Pennsylvania is a strong pro-life state (they elected a pro-life Democrat to two terms as governor) - and having Specter on the ticket meant the GOP had to tip-toe around that issue instead of pulling out all the stops.

And, in the ultimate irony of this election, the GOP removed the main obstructionists for conservative judges in the Senate - only to have that role replaced by one of their own, that they could have gotten rid of as well.

19 posted on 11/04/2004 8:48:38 AM PST by dirtboy (Tagline temporarily out of commission due to excessive intake of gin-soaked raisins)
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To: truthandlife

Weigh this carefully. In the politics of yesteryear, as expressed by another President from Texas, LBJ, this would have been "Keeping his p****r in my pocket", but I am sure that George W. Bush is nowhere nearly that pragmatic or cynical. As it is, Arlen Specter is beholden to Bush now, and as chair of the Judiciary Committee, is in a position to steer the nominations for the Federal bench, all the way up to the Supreme Court. All Bush should have to do is pick up the phone, and the wheels are already greased.

If Bill Frist can show some cojones, and hold the Democrats' feet to the fire when they threaten a filibuster, by keeping any filibuster going non-stop until they sit down, he may just be able to break that tactic for good. At best, the Democrats will abandon the tactic for good, and at the minimum, it would put them on notice, there is just not much tolerance for disruptive activities.


20 posted on 11/04/2004 8:53:07 AM PST by alloysteel
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To: Yancey Ward
This is likely Specter's last term, and I don't see him actively blocking the President's judicial selections.

You are exactly wrong. Not only do I doubt this is Specter's last term (provided his health holds up), but if it is he's going to be even farther left, even meaner, and even more aggressive about his personal agenda with no Republican primary to look forward to in 2011.

21 posted on 11/04/2004 8:53:52 AM PST by FredZarguna (Ready now thy pajamas. For the Dark Queen begins to gather all evil things unto herself.)
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To: truthandlife
"Could Bush have won Pennsylvania if the Republicans would have had a more conservative candidate to vote for in the Senate? Would more conservatives have voted in Pennsylvania?"

You bet your ass!

22 posted on 11/04/2004 8:56:30 AM PST by LuigiBasco (It's LONG past time to restart The Crusades.)
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To: Dems_R_Losers
Arlen Specter is arguably the most popluar politician in Pennsylavnia. It sucks, but that's the truth.

That is the truth. I have relatives that really like him and many of them are democrats. Sphincter once replied personally by mail to one of my aunts years ago and took care of a phone company harassing her.

23 posted on 11/04/2004 8:56:44 AM PST by KC_Conspirator (I am poster #48)
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To: 2banana; truthandlife
Yes - that and "supressing" the massive voter fraud in Philly...

I have to agree. A lot of us supported Toomey. But the Philly vote machine and all it's oddities were working overtime on that one. That's why we need to vote out Rendell despite the Philly thing next time. Hopefully Toomey will give it another try. And I know a lot of people who voted for 'Spectre' through clenched teeth because Hoeffel is like Rendell's clone. But after Spectre's post election spew, I'm wondering if he's just the same.

24 posted on 11/04/2004 8:59:56 AM PST by fortunecookie (My grandparents didn't flee communism so that I could live in Kerry's Kommune.)
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To: longhorn too

Bush could have won if voter fraud was not a factor.
Illinois and Pa are nototious for union mobster voter fraud.


25 posted on 11/04/2004 9:07:04 AM PST by MaryJaneNC
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To: alloysteel
If Bill Frist can show some cojones, and hold the Democrats' feet to the fire when they threaten a filibuster, by keeping any filibuster going non-stop until they sit down, he may just be able to break that tactic for good.

If the GOP doesn't change the rule up front at the start of the new Congress to disallow filibuster of nominees where constitutional "advice and consent" is required, then we will know he is not serious about winning on judicial appointments. The stakes are high, the Dims will pull out all the stops to prevent 3 Scalia-type appointments to the Supreme Court, and will filibuster til the cows come home, even if Teddy Kennedy is that cow. Specter, Snowe, and Chafee will join them in this, and even if a few Dims don't join in, a filibuster will continue to be successful.

The ONLY strategy that will demonstrate to the Dims and to the RINOs that we mean business is to insert into the organizing resolution of the Senate that there will be no filibusters for appointments, or they will be limited to one week. Filibusters are NOT meant to thwart the will of the majority of the Senate; they are a delaying tactic to be used when someone feels strongly about an issue AND thinks he/she can eventually muster the votes to stop something from being rammed through. Therefore, it is OK by me if they allow filibusters, IF they are limited in duration.

They only need 50 votes for the organizing resolution. If they can't get 50 pubbies to revise the rules on filibusters, then this session will accomplish nothing, and the GOP will be blamed, and its base will desert it in 2006 and 2008, and then Hillary! or someone like her will win in a cakewalk. The stakes are high here people! It starts in December with Frist.

26 posted on 11/04/2004 9:18:42 AM PST by Defiant (Democrats: Don't go away mad, just go away.)
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To: truthandlife; Torie
I don't quite understand why the Republicans didn't do more about vote fraud this time around in Pennsylvania. Bush was suppose to win in 2000 with Ridge in office and he lost because of vote fraud. Same thing in 2004 because of governor Ed Rendall's Democrat Vote Fraud Machine.

Bush lost because he has been unable to carry the Philadelphia suburbs. Pro-life Conservatives Santorum and Fisher in 2000, and Moderater Specter and Pro-life Conservative Corbett in 2004 did, and they won.

Its as simple as that. It has nothing to do with fraud, of which there is next to zero.

Philadelphia fraud is a do-nothing excuse for Monday Morning Quaterbacks whom simply don't understand that Bush didn't sell well in the Philly suburbs, even as the Republicans mostly cleaned up at the down ticket races in these same locales.

Personally, I think that Republicans need to run an attractive northern Pro-Life/Pro-Gun German Catholic Governor to win bascially Republican states like Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. That's why I keep suggesting John Engler of Michigan. Schweiker of Pennsylvania would have also been a good candidate had he stuck around longer.

As long as we stick with southerners and Californians we aren't going to do as well up north as we should as a party.

Whether or not doing well in those states is important to us as a party is a different question. I believe they are the only way to a lasting majority.

27 posted on 11/04/2004 9:21:09 AM PST by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: FredZarguna

Since 2000, Specter has been voting more to the right than his previous incarnations.

See his ACU record.

I still don't like him, but lets see where things go.


28 posted on 11/04/2004 9:25:29 AM PST by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: Physicist

When's the next election for Governor of Pennsylvania? It'd be nice if it were 2006, so that the fraudulent voting could be cleaned up in time for the 2008 Presidential Campaign.


29 posted on 11/04/2004 9:31:55 AM PST by Optimus Prime (Do liberals even qualify as sentient beings?)
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To: shellcracker
Absolutely not, and I say this as a PA voter. If anything, it would have driven the swing voters in suburban Philly and Pittsburgh further into the Kerry column.

That would be contrary to Bush's winning strategy everywhere else: Get the conservative vote energized and bring it out in large numbers.

That would have been the only way to win in PA, too. But not with Snarlin' Arlen.

30 posted on 11/04/2004 9:38:45 AM PST by eno_ (Freedom Lite, it's almost worth defending.)
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To: Hermann the Cherusker
Yes, his ACU rating has come up. Sadly, that's been his pattern of behavior in his "contract" year. If Senate business stays in law enforcement and national defense, his rating will stay high--I think he's actually been pretty good in these areas.
31 posted on 11/04/2004 9:41:05 AM PST by FredZarguna (Ready now thy pajamas. For the Dark Queen begins to gather all evil things unto herself.)
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Comment #32 Removed by Moderator

Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: shellcracker

Primaries tend to bring out the hardcore PARTY folks. People like me, that write checks and make phone calls during primary campaigns.

Bush won based on people who go to church - mainly big new prosperous protestant churches. These are not (always) the same people who are invovled in party work.


34 posted on 11/04/2004 10:52:09 AM PST by eno_ (Freedom Lite, it's almost worth defending.)
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To: Hermann the Cherusker

Kerry seemed to have had a massive vote out of Philadelphia however, as compared to Gore. It looks like Gerlach will be spending his last term in Congress. Chester is deteriorating almost as fast of Montgomery it seems.


35 posted on 11/04/2004 11:03:01 AM PST by Torie
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To: Torie
...a massive vote out of Philadelphia however, as compared to Gore.

Wow, they turned out 247% of the dead/felon/senile vote???

Seriously, though, the fact that Bush successfully turned out conservatives in amazing numbers should not de-focus us from the issue of massive vote fraud. Fraud is the backbone of the Democrat party. Target the PEOPLE that operate the fraud.

36 posted on 11/04/2004 11:15:15 AM PST by eno_ (Freedom Lite, it's almost worth defending.)
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To: Torie

Gerlach is in trouble because the eastern Pennsylvania redistricting was an enormous mistake. Gerlach must fight uphill against Lower Merion, Norristown, and Reading.

We should have sent Holden and Kanjorski into a single district from Scranton through Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton to Reading.

We should also have pitted Hoeffel and Fattah in a district including Lower Merion, Norristown, Cheltenham, Abington, NW Philly, western North and northern West Philly.

We should then have left Borski mostly alone by stripping out East Oak Lane, Olney, Juniata Park, Oxford Circle, Frankford, and Castor Gardens from his district (Wards 61, 42, 33, 23, 62, and 54), while adding in Bensalem, Levitttown, and Morrisville from Bucks County. This would keep it a marginally competitive district for us by stripping overwhelming Philly Democrat neighborhoods out while ading in Democrat leaning Bucks suburbs, probably more competitive than the curret District 13, which is missing some of the best parts of NE Philly for Republicans which were given to Bucks County. It wouldn't be even in registration, but it would be by voting thanks to conservative Democrats in Tacony and Port Richmond.

Then with Bucks County, we could have added in the Lower Moreland-Hatboro-Lansdale-E. Greenville fringe of Montgomer County to what was then Greenwood's district to make it non-competitive for a Democrat.

Finally, Gerlach would have his district from the remainder of Montgomer County, northern Chester County, and southern Berks County. This would have been another non-competivie district for Democrats.

Really this whole thing was done really dumb, dumb, dumb because we tried to get greedy with Districts 6, 13, and 17 and got bitten in the ass by the shifts in Abington and Lower Merion (no thank you for this Bob Asher!). Even Weldon isn't sitting pretty.

Three districts for Democrats in Philly needed 1,950,000 people. Philly was 1,530,000. Lower Bucks County (Bensalem, Bristol, Morrisville) is another 150,000. Lower Montgomery County (Lower Merion, Abington, Cheltenham, and Norristown) is 190,000. The strip of Delaware County along the river to Chester is 80,000. This would have been perfect, and we'd have a 13-6 state delegation with an outside opportunity in NE Philly and lower Bucks - 3 in Philly, 1 in Pittsburgh, 1 in Johsntown, and 1 in Scranton/Reading.

We will waste a lot of money unseating Holden when we could have let the Democrats do it for us, and we will waste even more defending our position in Philadelphia when we could have made it non-competitive.

As it is, we have 12-7, we can't unseat Holden, we are likely to lose Gerlach, and Fitzpatrick is going to have tough fights for a while.

The only bright side to all of this is we have another chance in 8 years, when we will lose another 2 congressional seats.


37 posted on 11/04/2004 11:33:50 AM PST by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: truthandlife

What's worse is that Santorum also endorsed Specter...


38 posted on 11/04/2004 11:35:56 AM PST by animoveritas
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To: longhorn too

"I think he may had a chance in Illinois if we could exclude Chicago."

No doubt about that! I am from Illinois, and most of our counties went for Bush. I did a quick tally in a spreadsheet using the county by county results posted at USAtoday.com. To the best of my knowledge the numbers match up with what is posted at the website I got them from.

Bush = 2,364,015 votes; Kerry = 2,826,757 votes. In Cook county alone, Kerry got 1,389,631 votes compared to Bush's 583,774 votes. If you take away those Cook county votes, Bush wins by a margin of 343,115.





39 posted on 11/06/2004 12:21:35 AM PST by wrigsmom
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