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Final Just the Facts: Memo from Matthew Dowd
George W. Bush ^ | November 4, 2004

Posted on 11/04/2004 1:20:56 PM PST by RWR8189

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FR: MATTHEW DOWD
CHIEF STRATEGIST
RE: INITIAL STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

President Bush won a historic victory yesterday by defeating John Kerry by more than 3.5 million votes,

58.6 million to 55.1 million (51% to 48%) and winning the Electoral College 286 to 252. In doing so, President Bush:

• Becomes the first presidential candidate to win more than 50% of the popular vote since 1988.

• Received the most votes by any presidential candidate in history - over 58 million, even breaking President Reagan’s 1984 mark of 54.5 million votes.

• Becomes the first President re-elected while gaining seats in the House and the Senate since 1936, and the first Republican President to be re-elected with House and Senate majorities since 1924.

• Received a higher percentage of the popular vote than any Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.

• Garnered 7 million more popular votes than in 2000 - more than twice the amount that President Clinton increased his vote between 1992 and 1996.

• Increased his percent of the vote from 2000 in 45 out of 50 states, including a 4 percent increase in John Kerry’s home state of Massachusetts.  President Bush ran just as strongly in the key battleground states as he did nationally. In the 14 most competitive states (AR, CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, WI, and WV), President Bush won 51% of the vote to John Kerry’s 49% -- an improvement of 2 points from his 2000 performance in those states. Yesterday also revealed that the Republican Party has made historic gains with minority voters and women. Exit polling revealed that President Bush won 42% of Hispanics (up from 35% in 2000), 11% of African-Americans (up from 9% in 2000), 24% of Jewish voters (up from 19% in 2000), and 47% of women (up from 43% in 2000). In Florida, 55% of Hispanic voters supported President Bush, an increase of 6 points from 2000. Just as we predicted, undecided and late-deciding voters went to the President Bush by a small margin. Despite media predictions that Kerry would win up to 90% of late-deciding voters, exit polling reveals that President Bush won voters who decided in the week before the election, 51% to 48%. Furthermore, as we predicted, yesterday was the first time in modern political history that an equal number of Republicans and Democrats turned out for a presidential election. The Democrats’ 4-point advantage in 2000 evaporated, with Republicans and Democrats both at 37% of the electorate in 2004.

On a strategic and tactical level, Bush-Cheney '04 and the Republican National Committee helped the President turnout a record number of Republicans and make historic gains among swing groups through an unprecedented volunteer grassroots organization and the most sophisticated advertising and voter contact strategy in campaign history: Some highlights include:

• Combining traditional shoe-leather grassroots outreach with an unprecedented online effort to build a network of millions of volunteers who spread the President’s message and helped turnout the vote on Election Day

• Employing cutting-edge research to efficiently target Republicans and Swing Voters through media buys and voter contact, the first time a presidential campaign utilized such research.

• Advertising heavily on national cable and radio to deliver the President’s message to both influentials and voters who had moved away from traditional broadcast TV, another first for a presidential campaign.

• Building new support among Hispanic and African American voters through local outreach, arned media, and specialty media buys.

• Delivering maps and directions to polling places to our committed supporters and using ophisticated, targeted Internet advertising in the closing days of the campaign to get out the ote.

On a personal note, this should be the last “Dowd” memo because I am GTT (for those unfamiliar, that eans “Gone To Texas.”)


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bc04; bush43; bushvictory; dowd; gwb2004; mattdowd; matthewdowd; realignment
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1 posted on 11/04/2004 1:21:01 PM PST by RWR8189
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To: RWR8189

Sweet Victory and Revenge!


2 posted on 11/04/2004 1:22:37 PM PST by JessieHelmsJr
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To: RWR8189
• Garnered 7 million more popular votes than in 2000 - more than twice the amount that President Clinton increased his vote between 1992 and 1996.

my favorite..aimed right at the left and their "most popular President ever" bilge..

3 posted on 11/04/2004 1:23:59 PM PST by WoodstockCat (DNC and John Kerry: Forgers R' Us)
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To: RWR8189

Bump for reference.


4 posted on 11/04/2004 1:24:28 PM PST by mattdono ("Crush the democrats, drive them before you, and hear the lamentations of the scumbags" -Big Arnie)
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To: RWR8189

Great rundown of the stats but .....

Mr President, please fire Norman Mineta!!!


5 posted on 11/04/2004 1:27:55 PM PST by Rummyfan
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: RWR8189
". . . Becomes the first presidential candidate to win more than 50% of the popular vote since 1988. . . ."

I wonder if the Democrats have sat down and asked themselves what it means that no Democrat has been elected President of the United States with a clear majority of the popular vote since 1976? Four times a Republican candidate has won 50%+ of the popular vote since Carter; Reagan in 1984 and 1986, George H. W. Bush in 1988, and George W. Bush in 2004.

Are there any Democrats who think that this statistic is meaningful?
7 posted on 11/04/2004 1:30:34 PM PST by StJacques
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To: WoodstockCat

Another myth is that Clinton never won a majority "because of Ross Perot". He never won a majority because most voters chose not to vote for him.


8 posted on 11/04/2004 1:37:06 PM PST by scottinoc
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To: RWR8189
"the first Republican President to be re-elected with House and Senate majorities since 1924."

To be precise about it, the President who was elected in 1924 was Calvin Coolidge.

Coolidge was not really "re-elected" President in 1924.

He had been elected Vice President in 1920, and became President when President Harding died in 1923.

9 posted on 11/04/2004 1:39:45 PM PST by chs68
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To: JessieHelmsJr

Bump for later reference for my RAT friends and family....hehhehehe...gosh, I'm mean...;-)



10 posted on 11/04/2004 1:40:05 PM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: RWR8189

bump


11 posted on 11/04/2004 1:40:09 PM PST by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: mattdono

ME TOO.

I wish the bookmark feature actually worked...


12 posted on 11/04/2004 1:42:34 PM PST by RobRoy (You only "know" what you experience. Everything else is mere belief.)
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To: RWR8189

Also, another piece of data that shatters the myth that undecideds go 2-1 for the challenger in Presidential races...Dowd's numbers showed a 51-48 in favor of Bush for undecideds.


13 posted on 11/04/2004 1:44:19 PM PST by mrs9x
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To: scottinoc

...Another myth is that Clinton never won a majority "because of Ross Perot"...

Man, I had not heard that one. That's exactly backwards.
Conservatives went for Perot, not liberals. Bush 41 would have been reelected handily.


14 posted on 11/04/2004 1:45:37 PM PST by planekT
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To: RobRoy

?
the bookmark feature works just fine for me.


15 posted on 11/04/2004 1:46:54 PM PST by King Prout ("We've found more WMDs in Iraq than we've found disenfranchised blacks in Florida." - Ann Coulter)
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To: JessieHelmsJr
• Employing cutting-edge research to efficiently target Republicans and Swing Voters through media buys and voter contact, the first time a presidential campaign utilized such research.

It seems odd that this was the first Presidential campaign ever to use targeted advertising. What was different about this "cutting-edge" research and traditional demographic research?
16 posted on 11/04/2004 1:52:36 PM PST by highimpact (Where are we going in this handbasket?)
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To: RWR8189

I'm loving this...


17 posted on 11/04/2004 2:13:50 PM PST by kesg
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To: RWR8189

I know that this was written by Matthew Dowd yesterday, so some information is already outdated. Votes are still being counted in many States (absentee) and as of today, the President has nearly, 59,100,000 votes. Also, here is an interesting fact. When the MSM and the liberals tell you that we have a "divided" nation, tell them that THEY are absolutely, positively WRONG!! How could we be divded, when 83%, YES....83% of counties in the United States voted to re-elect President Bush?? An amazing statistic, isn't it?? PASS THE WORD!!


18 posted on 11/04/2004 2:16:03 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: King Prout

Well, I found out that it will tell you that it has been bookmarked and gives you the option to return to the thread. If you don't select that option, the bookmark does not show up - at least not for me. My last one did show up after I selected that option, but many others are simply not there.

It might be that the message shows up too soon, implying that it has been bookmarked when, in fact, you MUST return to the thread for the process to complete.

I dunno. You would think that if you get a message saying the bookmark has been added that it would have been added. I'm not whining about it. I'm just observing it.


19 posted on 11/04/2004 2:16:30 PM PST by RobRoy (You only "know" what you experience. Everything else is mere belief.)
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To: highimpact

I don't think that targeted advertising is new. I think that the "technology" used to identify our base of support, was the new aspect of the campaign. I hope we keep the technology under lock and key. We certainly don't want the democRats to have it!! :-)


20 posted on 11/04/2004 2:19:53 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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