Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

The key paragraph in Ronald Brownstein's analysis is the following one. Usually a President's re-election turns out to be the high-water mark for the party in power. In virtually every case except in 1998, it has lost ground both in the popular vote and the electoral college, by the time of the next election - when there's usually a pent-up public demand for a change of party. Can President Bush break this historical pattern? The stakes are high for him and the GOP as they look forward to the mid-term 2006 election and then to the next presidential election in 2008 that will decide President Bush's successor.
1 posted on 11/15/2004 1:58:20 AM PST by goldstategop
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies ]


To: goldstategop

Thats a redundant headline. and he used 'victory' twice in it


2 posted on 11/15/2004 2:00:01 AM PST by GeronL (http://images7.fotki.com/v125/photos/2/215708/780411/reow-vi.jpg?1100155138)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

First of all, it wasn't a small cushion of victory no matter how they try to spin it. Secondly, if the attacks here on FR already are any indication, the President's enemies will be his own party.


4 posted on 11/15/2004 2:03:48 AM PST by ladyinred (Congratulations President Bush! Four more years!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

There is always a danger in great victory, for example the British Tory win in 1992 was considered to be a great achievement at the time, yet it lead to the defeats of 1997 and 2001; had we lost marginally to Labour then, the Tories would have been back in (and strongly so) in 1997.

That said, this looks like an attempt to find the silver-lining to the cloud (from the left-wing perspective); Pres. Bush increased his popular vote, his share of the popular vote, his share of the Electoral College, and his party's representation in both houses of Congress. This is nothing other than a disaster for the Democratic Party.


6 posted on 11/15/2004 2:12:41 AM PST by tjwmason ("The English, the English, the English are best; I wouldn't give tuppence for all of the rest")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop
It depends on what sort of get out the vote effort both sides mount (as always).

The left was not voting for Kerry, they were voting against Bush. Bush isn't running next time. Cheney won't be running. Hard to push against "Bush and Cheney" when neither is in the race. Some of Kerry's voter base included conflicting demographics for example homosexuals vs. Christian or even muslim black voters; they oppose same sex marriage AND they oppose attempts to liken the homosexual campaign to racial segregation (Kerry had to FLIP FLOP).

Bush got votes from "911 Democrats" who switched parties on the WOT issue (Dick Morris, Ed Koch, Ron Silver, et al), Christian conservatives who focus on abortion and same sex marriage (the Amish voters factor into Bush's Ohio victory to some degree), Americans against Kerry (a known traitor to his nation during Vietnam and someone who indicated he would sell us out to the United Nations), Americans against the Mainstream Media (the backlash to their support of Michael Moore, Rock The Liberal Vote, constant Bush bashing, hoaxes as news such as Rathergate...), and those who actively support President Bush in all of his policies (or at least see that he offers a better shot at the policies they want than Kerry could ever offer).

George W. Bush succeeded in getting more popular votes than all "ANYBODY BUT BUSH" candidates combined. A healthy majority of 3million voters. Bush got more votes than Ronald Reagan. Voters wanted to make sure that Kerry did not get in office.

Will people turn out next time? Who knows? Totally depends on what happens over the next 4 years. Will the UN disintegrate after being exposed as a part of the problem? Will the right to LIFE be clarified in the Constitution so that abortion is off the table as an issue? Will same sex marriage be off the table?

Will war or national security have new conflicts to worry voters?

The left is selling socialism a little at a time. Expect to see them yet again selling nationalized health care, more environmentalism (get people out of cars), still opposing school choice. Welfare and Social Security may also be yet again a part of their drumbeat.

9 posted on 11/15/2004 2:27:23 AM PST by weegee (WE FOUGHT ZOGBYISM November 2, 2004 - 60 Million Voters versus 60 Minutes - BUSH WINS!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

The insults these days might just as well be written by high school drama queens for all the impact they have. This is a very lightweight commentary for a paper that used to have a shred of respectability. Wave good-buy as the LAT(itanic) slips into the merky waters of oblivion.


10 posted on 11/15/2004 2:28:42 AM PST by DoughtyOne (US socialist liberalism would be dead without the help of politicians who claim to be conservatives)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

voodo predictive analysis only applies if the Washington Redskins win by a field goal kicked on a fourth down against the wind by a kicker with an even numbered jersey...


11 posted on 11/15/2004 2:33:59 AM PST by DBeers
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

hmmm, i guess he didn't read david shuster's column today about how deep the bush revolution is....http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5445086/


13 posted on 11/15/2004 2:57:03 AM PST by wildwood
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop
Measured another way, Bush won 53% of the 538 electoral college votes available this year.

Or measured another way Bush got 3.5 million more votes.

Get over it!!

16 posted on 11/15/2004 3:22:31 AM PST by Phlap (REDNECK@LIBARTS.EDU)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop
Take away so of the states that Kerry won by small margins [Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania], and it becomes a landslide for the Republicans.

Sore losers try to find a way to live with themselves the next four years. This person sounds like he has trouble accepting the Red Mandate just as some people of California wanted to join Canada.

18 posted on 11/15/2004 3:36:58 AM PST by topher
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

(Sigh

If Kerry had won the election by a margin of 51% to 48%, the leftists would be trumpeting their "mandate" to the four corners of the world and how Kerry had crushed Bush in a landslide election.

Well, turnabout is fair play. Our guy won - by a large margin and your guy lost.

Deal with it.


19 posted on 11/15/2004 3:48:37 AM PST by DustyMoment (Repeal CFR NOW!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

Yeah, the Democrats are expecting a big comeback-that's why they're moving to Canada.


20 posted on 11/15/2004 4:30:52 AM PST by libertylover (I love it when liberals are livid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

WEll I still say with a good economy , an opponent like Kerry ,and no scandals Bush should have had a landslide ala Reagan and his father's election

The barbarians are at the gate and haven't left

Iraq could get real ugly and Social Security is going to be a bitch to fix

We are living in a credit card economy that is a house of plastic

TOO many Americans don't know what a bad economy really is
and any slight downturn( they may have to give uo one of the family's 5 cell phones ) will have them convinced they are living through a Second Great Depression

This war will need $$$$$ to run etc etc

The colleges continue to turn out more brainwashed lefties every year while the conservative right pretty much tapped ALL its available resources vote wise this year


21 posted on 11/15/2004 4:36:55 AM PST by uncbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop
This and all the other hankie-wringing silver lining in clouds pieces are based on the utterly stupid idea that George Bush -- who has been incredibly successful in party building, first in Texas and now in Washington -- will, once he enters his "lame duck" term, lose all interest in continued party building.

Wake up dreamers, this is the Bush legacy!

I anticipate Ralph Reed working his magic in the Mid-west states which Bush lost narrowly, like Michigan and Wisconsin, and in the West. Considering that Kerry won California, Oregon and Washington by single digits, there is fertile grounds to capture those states as well.

Let those simple-minded left-wing sycophants in the media live in their fantasy world. They won't know what hit them!

22 posted on 11/15/2004 4:42:46 AM PST by HateBill (Democratic Message: "Kiss Terrorist A*s" vs. Republican Message: "Kick Terrorist A*s")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

If the GOP hadn't been winning so many elections by blowouts in the last 35 years, then I guess they would have more close elections.


23 posted on 11/15/2004 4:53:44 AM PST by TFine80 (Patton's Son: "There's no soap ever been invented that can wash that blood off his hands.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

Historically the GOP was supposed to lose seats in 2002; we gained.
Historically the President was supposed to lose re-election due to unemployment rate; being outspent; shaky war situation etc etc.
well he proved to be the exception to the rule
lets hope that the GOP continues to make gains


24 posted on 11/15/2004 4:54:40 AM PST by DM1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: goldstategop

Still trying to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat...
Good, let them spend the next four years convincing themselves that a) they didn't really lose this eleectin...it was stolen, or, b) while they might have lost, it really wasn't by very much. This should make for an even BIGGER loss in 2008. Thus, repeats the Rat's cycle.
It worked for 2000-2004 period, no reason it won't work again.


25 posted on 11/15/2004 5:00:12 AM PST by Baytovin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson