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Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
Yahoo/AP ^ | 12/23/04 | JOHN ANTCZAK

Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one

AP

Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET

By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer

LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

 

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.

"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.

Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.

The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.

Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.

___

On the Net:

Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov




TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2029; apophis; artbell; asteroid; callingartbell; catastrophism; endoftheworld; fridaythe13th; impact; levy; shoemaker; velikovsky
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1 posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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To: hole_n_one
Friday, April 13, 2029

FRiday the 13th :-\

Coincidence 8-?

2 posted on 12/23/2004 8:26:45 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ...... The War on Terrorism is the ultimate 'faith-based' initiative.)
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To: hole_n_one

Obviously George Bush's fault.


3 posted on 12/23/2004 8:27:03 PM PST by Squawk 8888 (With enemies like Michael Moore, who needs friends?)
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To: Squawk 8888
Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029.

Then again, maybe not.

4 posted on 12/23/2004 8:28:54 PM PST by yankeedame ("Born with the gift of laughter & a sense that the world was mad.")
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To: hole_n_one

Somehow Rove is behind this.


5 posted on 12/23/2004 8:29:39 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
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To: NormsRevenge

1300 feet long, 1/300 chance....

I'm starting to believe in triskadekaphobia.


6 posted on 12/23/2004 8:29:40 PM PST by SlowBoat407 (Couldn't you have stopped shooting at us and watched your baby grow instead?)
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To: hole_n_one

So are we going to have a 25 year long asteroid party ?


7 posted on 12/23/2004 8:30:02 PM PST by Domestic Church (AMDG...Belushi's ghost is already singing Louie,Louie...)
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To: Squawk 8888

It's all because Dubya refuses to sign Kyoto. < /DU >


8 posted on 12/23/2004 8:30:30 PM PST by CounterCounterCulture (And that's the bottom line ... 'cause Triple C said so!)
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To: hole_n_one

Yikes! Better go tidy up the Y2K shelter and jot a couple crates of Spam™ on the grocery list..


9 posted on 12/23/2004 8:30:49 PM PST by doom n gloom
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To: hole_n_one

Repent! The end is near!


10 posted on 12/23/2004 8:31:23 PM PST by agitator (...And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark)
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To: hole_n_one

Oh man....just when I have been considering stopping my writhing on the ground when I gas-up at the fillin' station, just like Chief Moose advised me to do. Even though he never said we should stop.

If I do discontinue this important proceedure, I may have to reinstate it in 2028, just to be on the safe side.


11 posted on 12/23/2004 8:32:32 PM PST by PoorMuttly ("The right of the People to be Muttly shall not be infringed,")
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To: NormsRevenge

Is's all about the money if you got it throw that up!


12 posted on 12/23/2004 8:32:50 PM PST by m3d1um
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To: hole_n_one
I think I might be dead already by then.. let me do the math..

Nope, I'll be 58. Damn.

13 posted on 12/23/2004 8:34:11 PM PST by txhurl
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To: hole_n_one

Well, I guess I can stop contributing to my 401K and just spend the money. I can retire in 2032, and I guess we probably won't make it, so why bother.


14 posted on 12/23/2004 8:34:28 PM PST by Mannaggia l'America
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Animation showing the cloud of possible positions of asteroid 2004 MN4 relative to Earth in April 2029 is shown in white. The Moon's orbit is also shown, for scale. A tiny portion of the cloud intersects the Earth. The length of the cloud is directly related to current uncertainties in our knowledge of this new object's orbit. This animation will repeat itself ten times.
15 posted on 12/23/2004 8:35:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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To: Domestic Church
So are we going to have a 25 year long asteroid party ?

Sure! It might just hit Mecca!

16 posted on 12/23/2004 8:35:34 PM PST by Machkas
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To: hole_n_one

Well, so much for worrying about Social Security going bankrupt in 2030.


17 posted on 12/23/2004 8:35:56 PM PST by CurlyDave
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To: hole_n_one

Yea but homeland security will save us. Right?


18 posted on 12/23/2004 8:37:26 PM PST by PistolPaknMama (And unto us a Child is born! Merry Christmas, dear FReepers!)
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To: hole_n_one

Have the French surrendered yet?


19 posted on 12/23/2004 8:37:48 PM PST by mtg
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To: NormsRevenge
I totally missed that!

Nice catch!

20 posted on 12/23/2004 8:38:18 PM PST by hole_n_one
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