MOSCOW -- OFF THE MAP? (One of the few who are actually starting to get it!)

Although I agree with the general thrust of this article, I would add that Russia and Red China are working hand-in-glove to weaken and ultimately defeat the West (the US in particular)--TTS

ping!

International Eurasian Institute for Economic and Political Research

Analytic Data

Russia removes itself from endangered list
High oil prices bought time to regroup

Sabrina Tavernise

Two years ago, just about everyone from electric-company bosses to President Vladimir Putin was predicting catastrophe for 2003.

The year was to be Russia's own Y2K. A mass of foreign debt would push the country back into bankruptcy. Its infrastructure - the vast electricity grid, telephone networks, oil and gas pipelines and roads - would have aged to a critical point, creating a drag on the economy and even emergency breakdowns. And a shrinking population would reach the point where pensioners outnumbered the young. .In short, Russia had three short years to repair, rebuild, repay and reproduce. .Putin addressed his cabinet on the matter shortly after two seemingly preventable accidents: a fire in Moscow's main television tower and the sinking of the Kursk nuclear submarine. He set up a "2003 problem" commission of members of Parliament.

Now, with 2003 fast approaching, the danger seems to have faded. The economy is growing. Central bank reserves are at their highest level since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and more than quadruple the level of four years ago. The budget is in surplus for the third straight year. Companies are investing, and worker productivity is up 7 percent this year. ."There is real restructuring of companies, and this is continuing to drive Russia," said Peter Boone, head of research at Brunswick UBS Warburg, an investment bank in Moscow. "Reserves are so large they are dripping out of the central bank."

What went right? Russia, politically and economically dysfunctional as little as four years ago, is evolving toward being a respected member of the world community.

Financial self-sufficiency has eliminated the danger of a government debt crisis. Helped by the high price of crude oil, a big export, the government has set aside extra cash to help it make debt payments this year and next. It has also bought back about a quarter of the foreign debt it owes next year.

As a result, Russia will be paying $15.5 billion in foreign debt in 2003, down from more than $20 billion. For a third straight year, the Russian government is set to meet all its debt payments without real risk of default or help from foreign lenders.

"All indications are that there is a lot of money coming into Russia," said Roland Nash, head of research at Renaissance Capital, an investment bank in Moscow. "The increase in central bank reserves this year is huge."

Concern about the 2003 problem did serve to propel a central economic reform: the reorganization of Russia's vast electricity industry. While predictions of the industry's collapse were overstated, international financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have said that Russian electricity needs investment to modernize.

But such changes have been slow to move through Parliament, bogged down in arguments over how the plan to split apart the world's largest electricity grid will be carried out.

Demographic worries have been eased by a recent census. A preliminary count showed that Russia's population shrank by 2 million over the last decade, even as Russians returned from republics of the former Soviet Union. But the decline, which brought Russia's population to 145 million, was less than originally feared.

Also, a recent report of an upturn in the birthrate gave cause for optimism. Economist say that as Russia emerges from a decade-long economic slump, the birthrate may continue to recover and the death rate to decline.

A danger is in the fluctuation of the price of oil, the lifeblood of Russia's budget, which receives a third of its revenue from oil and gas. The Russian economy is more diversified than that of the largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, but is still prone to boom-and-bust swings as the commodity price of crude oil rises and falls.

Boone of Brunswick UBS Warburg contends that as long as the price of oil is at least $19 a barrel, the government's budget will not need adjusting and large oil companies will continue investment programs that have been central to the current economic expansion.

Even so, Russia would feel the pinch if oil prices, which have averaged about $25 a barrel this year, fell. A prolonged period of low prices would slow growth. Every dollar in the oil price is equal to just over $1 billion in federal revenue. Yet few expect a debt crisis - from companies or government - as both have maintained low levels of borrowing since the damaging default in the summer of 1998.

In a move welcomed by economists because it would give Russia's federal budget a much-needed injection of cash, Moscow announced this month that it would once again try to sell a 5.9 percent stake in Lukoil OAO, the country's largest oil company.

Four months earlier the government called off the sale, deeming the prices offered to be too low, but the company's shares have since climbed significantly.

The Federal Property Fund, the trustee for the state's industrial shareholdings, said the sale would reduce the state's stake in Lukoil to 7.6 percent. It gave no details on the timing of the new sale. The shares are intended to be offered in the form of American depositary receipts but will be sold on the London Stock Exchange.

But many economists in Russia argue that a low oil price would be good for the economy because it would force the country to develop other leading industries. A more diverse economy would be stronger and less dependent on the fickle oil market.

"In Russia, our natural resources are our blessing and our tragedy," Grigori Yavlinsky, leader of the liberal Yabloko political party, said at an energy conference this autumn. "They help us to develop, but they keep us from developing."

"The International Herald Tribune", December 18, 2002

http://www.iht.com/articles/80659.html

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A lot of the things you might attribute to Russian ambitions are probably no more than business propositions. For instance Syria trying to buy Russian missiles. And Saddam buying Russian equipment. That is simply large sums of money wanting to change hands. Russia has a vast arms industry and can't refuse billions in hard currency.

"Russia has a vast arms industry and can't refuse billions in hard currency."

Poor, poor Russia!!! BTW, although the US record isn't spotless, we have refused billions on countless occasions.

The reason they have to support those who we appose is thats the only way they can make money. Lets be serious, many of these weapons systems they develop they just sell and don't use themselves because they can't afford to buy them. Hell they joined the Kyoto treaty knowing how stupid it was because they knew they could extort money from the dipshit Euros They aren't communists, they are gangsters out to make a buck.

They also have an aging crisis like our own. They have an estimated population of 1 million people with AIDS. Their suicide rate is about 3.5 times that of the US. Hardly ever seen in Russia, protesters took to the streets today because the government was cutting away their pensions and benefits. Russia just got rid of deferments for University students and have started raiding campus dorms to throw people in their army. The Russian population shrunk by about 600,000 in 10 months recently. Its estimated that their population will shrink by 1/3 by 2050.

Russia is in a lot more trouble than most people realize.

"Hell they joined the Kyoto treaty knowing how stupid it was because they knew they could extort money from the dipshit Euros They aren't communists, they are gangsters out to make a buck."

Communists are ideological gangsters on a global scale. BTW, the reason they joined the Kyoto treaty was to put pressure on the US to sign an economy-killing environmental protocol. Sure they could make a few bucks by selling us a few emission credits. But the real reason was about bringing US down, not lifting themselves up--TTS

I wholeheartedly agree with you. Putin's goal is the restoration of the USSR, a Russian-led empire. At current rates, the Russian population will shrink in a hundred years to be smaller than the Germany of that time. Of course, those nuclear bombs and the delivery systems will be obsolescent (and probably irrelevant) by then.

Your extreme hatred for everything Russian is very telling.

I have said since "The Wall" came down, that the Bear will come out of hybernation, but I did not forsee that the Bear would join forces with the Dragon. We all tend to judge others by ourselves, but if we take our guard against the Communists down we are being dangerously naive.

Your extreme hatred for everything Russian is very telling.

Why do you say that? Everything TapThe Source said was true.

The joined koyoto to milk it.

Death rate still high in Russia

07/26/2004 11:50

Death rate still exceeds birth rate, although the number of live births is growing

The number of the jobless population in Russia in June of the current year reduced by only 0.1 percent vs. June of 2003, having made up five million seven hundred and forty thousand people. In percentage, it makes 7.9 of the economically active population, the Federal State Statistics Service reported.

The number of the officially registered unemployed gained 1.4 percent over the same period - up to one million five thousand and fifty-six people. About 334.5 thousand jobless people are registered in the state employment service of the Chechen republic.

The number of economically active population had made up 72.3 million people by the end of June 2004, which was close to 50 percent of the total number of the country's population. The Statistics Service said the vast majority of Russians work in large and medium-sized organizations. Almost 39 million people were employed in such companies in May of 2004 - 59 percent of the working people.

The number of steady population in the Russian Federation made up 143.8 million as of June 1st 2004. It has reduced by 0.25 percent since the beginning of the year (358,9 thousand people).

The number of babies born in January-May of the current year made up 615,5 thousand, having gained 0.9 percent vs. the same period of the last year. About 980,8 thousand people deceased - the natural population decrease in January-March of the current year made up 365,3 thousand, which was 11.3 percent as less as in January-May of 2003.

According to the State Statistics Service, the reduction of the population happened because of the natural decrease. The number of live births is growing in 53 Federation units. The monthly number of the deceased has been declining since the end of 2003 in 66 Russian regions. The death rate exceeds the birth rate 1.6 times in Russia as a whole. This figure is larger in 24 regions - up to 2.9 times. The growing birth rate in January-May of 2004 was registered only in 16 regions (it was seen in 13 regions over the same period of 2003).

The number of migrants within Russia raised by 11.3 thousand people in January-May of 2004, or by 1.5 percent vs. the same period of 2003. The Russian migration decreased by 13.7 thousand people. The reduction of the migratory growth was registered in all CIS members.

Well if we're going to be technical about it, they were strong armed into joining it by the EU. The EU transfer payments to Russia is a small price for fining and damaging US business, at which the whole Kyoto crap was aimed at anyways.

TapTheSource/FearGodNotMen/GIJoel Propaganda

Propaganda	Truth
Putin is a communist	Putin has implemented a flat tax of 13%, got rid of the Sales tax, set the corporate tax at 24%, cut the VAT in half, cut 1/3rd off the payroll tax. He has cut back on government size (shrinking government). He has put up 20% of Russian land for sale, the government is in the process of divesting of the remainder of its shares in various companies. There has been judicial reform to a sitting jury from a triumvirate of judges. There has also been a total reform of the banking center, in order to make it transparent.
Russia and China are allied to destroy the US	Russia has recently passed up China for an oil export route and choose instead Japan. China had to turn to Iran. Russia is rearming in Siberia, while she arms India with over 400 new tanks, a wing of new aircraft, two nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier to intercept Chinese shipping. Russia has armed S.Korea with T-90s, armed Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Kazakhstan. Russia has attempted (by itself and through the US) to arm Taiwan also. The majority of weapons sold to China are aimed at the US navy, to which China will not be able to catch up for at least another generation.
Russia trains with China to destroy the US/West	This year alone, Russia has had joint maneuvers with Japan & S.Korea and then again with the US and UK off the Chinese Coast.
There is a Putin pandering mafia after me.	There is a dedicated group of Freepers who are out to expose this propagandist's lies and distortions, for which he has already been banned twice.
If you are against me you must be a (take your choice) A. communist, B. Putin lover, C. Russian Orthodox, D. Russian, E. Delusional, F. All of the Above	G. None of the Above. You must be a lover of truth and a hater of yellow journalism, empty conspiracy theories and plain propaganda.
The FSB/Russians are behind all the terrorism, including the theater and Beslan.	Only someone blind or shilling for Islam would on a continuous basis shift blame away from the terrorists and onto the victims.
Russia is giving Iran nukes.	Wrong. Russia is providing a civilian nuclear reactor with a contract to return spent rods. Do most of us agree with this? No, we are against this. Is this nuclear weapons technology? No. Our allie Pakistan with the assistance of our Most Valued Trading partner China are giving Iran missile and bomb technology.
Russia, and Putin in particular, hate Israel and wish to destroy it.	Wrong. Russia is Israel's second closest allie and trading partner and provides Israel with most of its oil and sells it weapons technology.
Putin is an Atheist, a hater of Christ.	Putin was baptized as a child, a regular church goer and has proven his faith on numerous occasions.
Russia supports Islamic terrorism.	Wrong. The Soviet Union supported socialist Arab revolutionaries/terrorists like the Palestinian People's Liberation Front. Modern day Russia does not support these groups. Our allie Saudi Arabia is the number one backer of all major Islamic groups.
Putin is a dictator	Putin was popularly elected with over 70% of the vote, a mandate. He functions within a constitution. True Parliament is dominated by pro-Putin right wing parties, also elected freely. The various right parties received over 83% of the vote.
Putin hates Bush.	Putin has been Bush's loudest cheerleader, louder and in front of Sharon, Blair or Berlusconi
Putin is moving to grab power through selecting governors.	The governors still have to pass the local Oblast's Parliament's review (that's province). Further, England, Italy and France all have the same systems.
Robert W. Lee another TapTheSource writers are credible.	Hardly, most like Mr. Lee, belong to the John Birch society, an organization steeped in conspiracy theories.
Yeltsin's declaration of open borders is a hollow one for Soviet citizens, who still cannot leave their country. Even travel outside the Soviet Union is heavily restricted, regardless of the Soviet republic	Typical propaganda leveled by TapTheSource or his articles. Anyone without a criminal warrant can leave at will, so long as the receiving nation will issue a Visa.
The Secret Soviets are still in charge and everything is part of their plan.	Lets take this lunacy to its full extent: The Soviets in their diabolic mysterious master plan allowed the Warsaw pact to collapse, the countries to open up and half of them to join NATO (I guess to corrupt NATO from within, regardless that it is those new NATO members that support America now and most of old NATO that is against America, lets ignore that fact). They allowed the Soviet Union itself to fall apart, some of which is also now part of NATO. They allowed the military to degrade, trade secrets to be sold or stolen, Chinese immigrants to come in mass into southern Siberia. Most of their bases to shut down. The economy to dive and only grow again under Capitalism freer then America's. They further allowed the young to not even know who Lenin was, for Islamics (who are all pawns of the Soviets, you see) to attack Russia on a daily basis. All this so that once America was the only apparent supper power, had its military in 120+ nations they could do what? Spring their surprise offensive? Materialize the great invasion army from outer space or outer Mongolia? Or marry enough American men to convert them (think body snatchers) into 5th Columnists and take over the US from inside? (of course that more people then ever voted Republican is also part of their master and evil plan). As a matter of fact, everything that happens that makes this theory look ludicrous for the past 15 years, well that's just part of the brilliance of their master plan. Oh and did we mention that they were obviously able to make Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton, Bush Jr. into a bunch of idiots who could not see into their plan. So either this is all BS, or every American expert in the government and politician is an idiot and we as a nation are a bunch of idiots (except for the members of the John Birth Society, the only masters of the illuminate able to see this grand Jewish .. erg .. Russian conspiracy.
Russia is a dirt poor country.	Russia ranks, according to the CIA World FactBook GDP: purchasing power parity - $1.282 trillion (2003 est.), which places it just behind (now ahead) of Italy, the world's 7th largest economy. Explaining Purchasing Power Parity
Anna Politkovskaya is a reputable Russian journalist who is fighting Putin's facism.	Hardly. Anna Politkovskaya is an opportunist and a leftist. Having become a "political" refugee in the early 1990s, she now has FRENCH citizenship, writes for the socialist La Monde and the socialist Novaye Gazeta. She has staged several of her own "assassination" attempts to better her street credits while meeting constantly with Chechin and Al Quida terrorists and writing gushing love stories of them. Further, anyone who thinks that just because she hates Putin she is pro Bush, you couldn't be more wrong. She is in league with the devil incarnate, Soros, and hates Bush as much. A leftist is a leftist, but judge for yourself and read her views of Bush and the CONSERVATIVES of AMERICA. COWBOY FRIENDS (Praise for Moore)
Russia is a nation that only relies on oil.	A total lie, mostly spread by Wahhabi islamic Saudi Arabia and various NeoCons who favor US investment to Facist (and pro-Islamic) China. Read here about the state of the Russian economy that is now returning as a major industrial and IT power. Russia competes directly with India on IT and has had manufacturing climbing at an incredible rate. Financ e Ministry to work on debt payment schedule Budget surplus higher than planned Person al incomes rise in Russia Most state enterprises to be privatized by 2007 Genera l Electric plans to invest $200m in Russia Person al incomes up in September Data on industrial production posted Russia 's foreign trade reported Gov 't considering airfield privatizations Russia posts increase in industrial production Russia 's foreign debt reaches six year low Russia 's debt to drop to 23% of GDP Russia leads in GDP growth Export s to play more important role in Russian economy
Ion Mihai Pacepa is a credible source.	Ion Mihai Pacepa was a 2-Star General in the Romanian KGB. The man made a career of upholding the second worst dictatorship Cecescu, in the Warsaw Pact, second only to Stalin's SU. He spent some 30 years building this murderer's power base. Obviously Pacepa was smart enough to read the writing on the way and see the end coming. He "defected" and now makes money writing books and articles. He never stood trial for his evil crimes, after the Romanian Revolution, even as his former master was executed.
The dramatic rise of oil prices, in April-September 2002, gave Kremlin new chances for survival.	Only if one ignores the 6-7% growth rates of 200 & 2001 and the tripling of revenues from the 13% flat tax in 2001.
Russia greatly expanded military supplies to China; in January-August 2002, the two countries concluded weapons supply contracts	Moscow is in the business of selling weapons, second largest after America. Thus, when China, rich with American cash from the giant trade deficit, ordered weapons from Russia, Israel and France. Russia did not give away "supplies" but sold weapons systems. They also sold weapons systems to India, Indonesia, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Greece, Cyprus, Malaysia, Thailand and a host of other nations.
During August and the first half of September, Russia\x{2019}s Defense Ministry and Foreign Ministry made a series of tough anti-Georgian statements, using as a pretext "the presence of Chechen terrorists in the Pankisi Gorge" (a small valley in Georgia bordering Russia). In the beginning of September, Russian bombers made a strike in Georgian territory.	The Pankisi Gorge is an area about half the size of W.Virgina, covered in some of the highest mountains and some of the deepest valleys of the world. Mostly unpopulated and forested, it is used as a training base for Islamics. Recently those none existent islamics perpetrated Beslan and Baseyov himself stated or boasted that he is allied to President Sakaashvili, president of Georgia and a Soros puppet. The strikes were made at early dawn by SU-25s, an impossability for Russia, since to reach it, it's closest SU-25s would have to have taken off and flow at night. Being a second rate SU, after the SU-33s, it is a day light capable only fighter/bomber. Georgia, on the other hand, has built several SU-25s with Israeli assistance that have state of the art night capabilities. Furthermore, no hard proof of the bombing was ever presented by the Georgian government, only recycled photos from 5 years prior.
And on Sept. 11, Putin himself threatened Georgia with a heavy military strike if the Georgian government didn\x{2019}t meet Russia\x{2019}s demands. Again, Washington protested, again with no results.	This was in response to a demand that Georgia stop granting visas, protection and support to Chechins, Arabs and other Islamics in the Pankisi Gorge and was limited to Russia stepping into that territory itself. This, after Georgia's only and now formally independent TV Station reported the presence of the terrorists, embarressing then President Shevernadze.

This is an ever growing list to bring the truth forward and fight the lies of these propagandists and Allah cheerleaders.

Kyoto is a crock.I cannot clintoon actually signed away Americas future prosperity. Thank God W put a stop to it.

Putin and his KGB gang at the top are doing fine. They have a firm grip on power, having brought the oligarchs to heel, dismantled all independent media of consequence, cowed the opposition, and strangled Russia's nascent democratic institutions. With high oil prices, the state's finances are solid and the economy is rolling along. Government officials have lots of opportunities for graft, with Switzerland, Malta, Luxembourg, and other hot money havens eager to open secret accounts for them.

Ordinary Russians though are suffering from the worst public health problems of any developed country, declining fertility, and pervasive corruption and criminality. Genuine rule of law is a remote prospect and much of the new wealth being created in the country is under the control of former communists and their mafia allies.

Russia's still potent defense industry survives on exports, but its own military is in decline, unable to field new equipment and train on a wide scale. Although Russia regards the near abroad of former Soviet republics as a special sphere of influence, most of them are now aligned with the West and the rest are looking for the opportunity to do so. In a decade or two, China may well decide to reacquire territory in the East for the sake of security and oil and gas resources. When that happens, Russia may find themselves hard put to resist and friendless if they try.

Russia may find themselves hard put to resist and friendless if they try.

Which will be their just rewards. Russia is definitely not our friend.

Exactly. The EU will go to any lengths, bribing Russia with its own funds and some percentage of their GDP; ignoring China and India's pollutions, anything to try to damage America and our industry.

I can't tell you how many times I've called the Whitehouse ang my Senators and congressmen in the past bitching to them about that kyoto country killer.

Any American with half a brain knows it's a way for the EU to hurt us economically.