Posted on 01/24/2005 1:15:14 PM PST by 68skylark
WASHINGTON (AP) — The strain of fighting a longer, bloodier war in Iraq than U.S. commanders originally foresaw brings forth a question that most would have dismissed only a year ago: Is the military in danger of running out of reserve troops?
At first glance the answer would appear to be a clear no. There are nearly 1.2 million men and women on the reserve rolls, and only about 70,000 are now in Iraq to supplement the regulars.
But a deeper look inside the Army National Guard, Army Reserve and Marine Corps Reserve suggests a grimmer picture: At the current pace and size of American troop deployments to Iraq, the availability of suitable reserve combat troops could become a problem as early as next year.
The National Guard says it has about 86,000 citizen soldiers available for future deployments to Iraq, fewer than it has sent there over the past two years. And it has used up virtually all of its most readily deployable combat brigades.
In an indication of the concern about a thinning of its ranks, last month the National Guard tripled the re-enlistment bonuses offered to soldiers in Iraq who can fill critical skill shortages.
Similarly, the Army Reserve has about 37,500 deployable soldiers left — about 18 percent of its total troop strength.
The Marine Corps Reserve appears to be in a comparable position, because most of its 40,000 troops have been mobilized at least once already. Officials said they have no figures available on how many are available for future deployments to Iraq.
Both the Army and the Marines are soliciting reservists to volunteer for duty in Iraq.
"The reserves are pretty well shot" after the Pentagon makes the next troop rotation, starting this summer, said Robert Goldich, a defense analyst at the Congressional Research Service.
Among the evidence:
—Of the National Guard's 15 best-trained, best-equipped and most ready-to-deploy combat brigades, all but one are either in Iraq now, have demobilized after returning from a one-year tour there or have been alerted for duty in 2005-2006.
The exception is the South Carolina National Guard's 218th Infantry Brigade, which has had not been deployed to Iraq as a full brigade because smaller groups of its soldiers have been mobilized periodically for homeland defense and numerous missions abroad, including Iraq.
—The Army Reserve, with about 205,000 citizen soldiers on its rolls for support rather than combat duty, has been so heavily used since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks that, for practical purposes, it has only about 37,500 troops available to perform the kinds of missions required in Iraq, according to an internal briefing chart entitled, "What's Left in the Army Reserve?"
—The chief of the Army Reserve, Lt. Gen. James R. Helmly, recently advised other Army leaders that his citizen militia is in "grave danger" of being unable to meet all its operational responsibilities. He said the Reserve is "rapidly degenerating into a 'broken' force."
The mix of troops in the U.S. force rotation now under way in Iraq is about 50 percent active duty and 50 percent reserves. But that is set to change to 70 percent active and 30 percent reserve for the rotation after that, beginning this summer, because combat-ready Guard units have been tapped out.
Thus, two active-duty Army divisions that have already served one-year tours in Iraq — the 101st Airborne and the 4th Infantry — have been selected to return in the coming rotation. The 1st Marine Expeditionary Force already is on its second tour in Iraq.
The potential squeeze could be avoided if security conditions in Iraq improve so dramatically this year that the Pentagon decides it can achieve stability with a smaller force.
The original expectation, after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, was that a troop withdrawal could begin within weeks. But an unanticipated insurgency — which turned out to be lethal and resilient — changed the picture and led to the stressful situation the Army faces today.
In some respects, the use of Army and Marine reservists in Iraq has been a success story. Goldich, the defense analyst, said their performance has generally been excellent. Commanders sing their praise. Yet there is a limit to the reserves' resources, and the limit may be nearing.
It's not the absolute number of reservists that poses a problem. It's the number who have the right skills for what is required in Iraq and who have not already served lengthy tours on active duty since President Bush authorized the Pentagon three days after the Sept. 11 attacks to mobilize as many as 1 million reservists for up to 24 months.
A portion of the best-trained reservists are approaching the 24-month limit, and some senior officials inside the Army are considering whether the limit should be redefined so that mobilizations over the past three years would, in effect, not count against the 24-month limit.
The Guard and Reserve are hurting in other ways, too. Their casualties in Iraq have been mounting (16 deaths in October, 28 in November, 20 in December and at least 15 in the first 13 days of January), and the National Guard and Army Reserve have been missing their recruiting goals.
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On the Net:
Army National Guard at http://www.ngb.army.mil
Army Reserve at http://www4.army.mil/USAR/home/index.php
Marine Corps Reserve at http://www.marforres.usmc.mil/
If there's such a godd***ed shortage of troops, why are so many willing volunteers passed over so far? I smell hype from the MSM -- not a real crisis. They want to make Americans worried, and give hope to our enemies.
IP on AP.
Imagine that!/sarcasm..Thank you trying to serve.
My son - Army Reserve - has volunteered for overseas assignment 3 times. Currently he is on active duty at Fort Hood. He feels useless though - thinks he should be overseas where he can do the job he is trained for.
I did 3 tours in Nam, with 5th SF. I'd re-enlist in an heartbeat, but at 55, the local Army Recruiter says I'm past the age requirements. He took my app and copy of DD214, anyway.
All this talk about the Reserve running out! Not only is it hype and bs, but not even a mention in the article of the number of Active Duty we have and can use if we need to.
Another ap(old media) story that doesn't understand how the military works.
Another link recently talks about shortages, at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1325187/posts
Also, USA Today has this related topic:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-01-23-navy-air-recruits_x.htm
...
I agree but if you are waiting to go overseas and they keep telling you "NO", why on earth are they bringing back troops whose enlistments have been up for awile or officers who have already resigned after 8 years or so. I know they can do this and I'm not flaming anyone but i'm curious as to why this is happening IF there are those waiting to go. Does it have to do with specialties???????
Sounds like you've done more than your share already. Time to sit down and let someone else have a turn for a change!
For awhile (9 years) I served in uniform with the state defense force in my state, mostly with retirees and other prior service guys. It was a great experience -- I think it had by far the most motivated soldiers I've ever seen, since each one really wanted to be there. If any freepers want to see if their state has such an organization, click here: http://www.sgaus.org/States.htm or here: http://www.sgaus.org/.
I think the Coast Guard Auxiliary can also use good folks, and there are probably a few other ways for prior service folks to get back into uniform for the war on terrorism.
We have had two young men in the California National Guard tell us that they have volunteered to go to Iraq and were told no or wait.
The military moves in strange ways -- ways that only they understand.
When it comes to Army or Air Guard vs. Reserve (both part of the greater "reserve forces"), the Guard also has a state mission, so you don't want to take a state's total Guard force down too far. That may have nothing to do with the case you mentioned, but just pointing that out.
You make a good point. In my opinion, it's a good argument for states to establish a state defense force of their own. About half the states in the U.S. have done so -- I think they're an underutilized asset.
But rather than take care of their own internal needs themselves, most states would rather bitch and moan and complain to Washington to ask for more troops who get federal funding (e.g. National Guard) -- even if that strains our ability to fight overseas.
In truth, yeah it partly has to do with specialties -- some are in really short supply and more likely to get recalled & deployed. (I think military police and helicopter mechanics are in the shortest supply, but there could be other tight specialties as well -- intelligence, medical, even truck drivers, etc. And Special Forces fall into their own, unique category.)
In other cases, there are people (like me) very willing to serve, but some of the administrative people are really slow at putting through our paperwork and getting us the schools we have to have in order to deploy.
So basically, there's a whole stew of complex reasons why things work like they do, and not all the reasons are good ones, I'm afraid.
One of the young men brought up this. However, he did a mini tour in S Korea a few years ago on a volunteer basis. I believe that was during the Clintoon years.
Here's a general "FYI" on the current reservist/guard levels deployed (it originally had and extra 100,000 ("111,928") for the USAF, which I knew was wrong based on previous numbers reported...correcting it made the total number deployed accurate):
As of January 19, 2004, DoD reports that 192,507 members of the National Guard and Reserve who have been mobilized. This includes:
162,857 Army National Guard and Army Reserve
3,567 Naval Reserve
11,928 Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve
13,188 Marine Corps Reserve
967 Coast Guard Reserve
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