Time to fire Debbie Stabenow in 2006 (Scouting Report)

Secretary of state ^ | 2-5-05 | Voters

[Dan from Michigan]

2000 US Senate - Stabenow vs Spence Abraham

	TOTAL	Spence	Debbie
COUNTY	BY	Abraham	Stabenow
CODE/NAME	COUNTY	REP	DEM	REP%	DEM%	difference	% diiference
82 WAYNE	759,508	228,547	512,759	30.09%	67.51%	-284,212	-37.42%
25 GENESEE	186,510	66,910	115,373	35.87%	61.86%	-48,463	-25.98%
81 WASHTENAW	143,017	52,990	85,305	37.05%	59.65%	-32,315	-22.60%
33 INGHAM	119,843	47,171	69,582	39.36%	58.06%	-22,411	-18.70%
27 GOGEBIC	7,973	3,304	4,460	41.44%	55.94%	-1,156	-14.50%
73 SAGINAW	92,675	43,277	47,564	46.70%	51.32%	-4,287	-4.63%
43 LAKE	4,607	2,127	2,309	46.17%	50.12%	-182	-3.95%
09 BAY	50,912	23,986	25,503	47.11%	50.09%	-1,517	-2.98%
61 MUSKEGON	67,948	32,510	34,142	47.85%	50.25%	-1,632	-2.40%
52 MARQUETTE	28,662	13,575	14,238	47.36%	49.68%	-663	-2.31%
50 MACOMB	338,811	163,150	164,596	48.15%	48.58%	-1,446	-0.43%
36 IRON	6,023	2,921	2,944	48.50%	48.88%	-23	-0.38%
58 MONROE	59,999	29,049	29,227	48.42%	48.71%	-178	-0.30%
63 OAKLAND	563,098	277,180	268,853	49.22%	47.75%	8,327	1.48%
18 CLARE	12,453	6,211	5,855	49.88%	47.02%	356	2.86%
02 ALGER	4,211	2,113	1,978	50.18%	46.97%	135	3.21%
06 ARENAC	7,024	3,560	3,317	50.68%	47.22%	243	3.46%
23 EATON	48,716	24,990	22,657	51.30%	46.51%	2,333	4.79%
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	4,096	2,124	1,909	51.86%	46.61%	215	5.25%
13 CALHOUN	54,549	28,068	25,116	51.45%	46.04%	2,952	5.41%
74 ST. CLAIR	67,408	34,364	30,659	50.98%	45.48%	3,705	5.50%
39 KALAMAZOO	99,479	51,478	45,295	51.75%	45.53%	6,183	6.22%
26 GLADWIN	11,472	5,948	5,211	51.85%	45.42%	737	6.42%
37 ISABELLA	20,774	10,742	9,314	51.71%	44.83%	1,428	6.87%
65 OGEMAW	9,646	5,028	4,345	52.13%	45.04%	683	7.08%
78 SHIAWASSEE	31,804	16,693	14,253	52.49%	44.82%	2,440	7.67%
35 IOSCO	12,970	6,822	5,815	52.60%	44.83%	1,007	7.76%
51 MANISTEE	11,078	5,831	4,961	52.64%	44.78%	870	7.85%
66 ONTONAGON	3,985	2,095	1,777	52.57%	44.59%	318	7.98%
46 LENAWEE	38,481	20,483	16,994	53.23%	44.16%	3,489	9.07%
72 ROSCOMMON	12,702	6,756	5,603	53.19%	44.11%	1,153	9.08%
21 DELTA	17,016	9,151	7,566	53.78%	44.46%	1,585	9.31%
07 BARAGA	3,240	1,734	1,423	53.52%	43.92%	311	9.60%
38 JACKSON	61,257	32,958	26,616	53.80%	43.45%	6,342	10.35%
42 KEWEENAW	1,309	704	568	53.78%	43.39%	136	10.39%
04 ALPENA	13,519	7,316	5,902	54.12%	43.66%	1,414	10.46%
80 VAN BUREN	28,472	15,443	12,399	54.24%	43.55%	3,044	10.69%
55 MENOMINEE	9,929	5,368	4,277	54.06%	43.08%	1,091	10.99%
31 HOUGHTON	13,702	7,437	5,857	54.28%	42.75%	1,580	11.53%
71 PRESQUE ISLE	7,006	3,854	3,007	55.01%	42.92%	847	12.09%
22 DICKINSON	12,614	7,023	5,319	55.68%	42.17%	1,704	13.51%
17 CHIPPEWA	14,087	7,849	5,899	55.72%	41.88%	1,950	13.84%
53 MASON	12,844	7,190	5,275	55.98%	41.07%	1,915	14.91%
44 LAPEER	36,803	20,486	14,934	55.66%	40.58%	5,552	15.09%
10 BENZIE	7,655	4,290	3,133	56.04%	40.93%	1,157	15.11%
19 CLINTON	31,846	17,991	13,141	56.49%	41.26%	4,850	15.23%
64 OCEANA	10,344	5,931	4,212	57.34%	40.72%	1,719	16.62%
79 TUSCOLA	24,271	13,863	9,762	57.12%	40.22%	4,101	16.90%
14 CASS	19,296	11,102	7,744	57.54%	40.13%	3,358	17.40%
16 CHEBOYGAN	12,340	7,094	4,933	57.49%	39.98%	2,161	17.51%
01 ALCONA	5,775	3,356	2,305	58.11%	39.91%	1,051	18.20%
59 MONTCALM	22,124	12,880	8,801	58.22%	39.78%	4,079	18.44%
60 MONTMORENCY	4,838	2,799	1,900	57.85%	39.27%	899	18.58%
54 MECOSTA	14,431	8,388	5,695	58.12%	39.46%	2,693	18.66%
49 MACKINAC	5,833	3,390	2,298	58.12%	39.40%	1,092	18.72%
47 LIVINGSTON	74,974	43,471	29,319	57.98%	39.11%	14,152	18.88%
20 CRAWFORD	6,255	3,605	2,412	57.63%	38.56%	1,193	19.07%
29 GRATIOT	14,890	8,687	5,845	58.34%	39.25%	2,842	19.09%
12 BRANCH	15,483	9,057	6,043	58.50%	39.03%	3,014	19.47%
11 BERRIEN	63,833	37,721	24,727	59.09%	38.74%	12,994	20.36%
40 KALKASKA	6,492	3,853	2,457	59.35%	37.85%	1,396	21.50%
83 WEXFORD	12,803	7,564	4,796	59.08%	37.46%	2,768	21.62%
15 CHARLEVOIX	12,297	7,274	4,588	59.15%	37.31%	2,686	21.84%
68 OSCODA	3,918	2,336	1,478	59.62%	37.72%	858	21.90%
56 MIDLAND	38,428	22,885	14,438	59.55%	37.57%	8,447	21.98%
34 IONIA	23,254	13,971	8,772	60.08%	37.72%	5,199	22.36%
48 LUCE	2,495	1,497	935	60.00%	37.47%	562	22.53%
67 OSCEOLA	9,537	5,714	3,556	59.91%	37.29%	2,158	22.63%
45 LEELANAU	11,782	7,046	4,376	59.80%	37.14%	2,670	22.66%
62 NEWAYGO	19,238	11,641	7,139	60.51%	37.11%	4,502	23.40%
76 SANILAC	18,316	11,095	6,643	60.58%	36.27%	4,452	24.31%
41 KENT	248,083	151,844	90,732	61.21%	36.57%	61,112	24.63%
08 BARRY	26,053	15,897	9,429	61.02%	36.19%	6,468	24.83%
32 HURON	15,671	9,720	5,672	62.03%	36.19%	4,048	25.83%
69 OTSEGO	10,374	6,364	3,682	61.35%	35.49%	2,682	25.85%
05 ANTRIM	11,355	6,984	4,018	61.51%	35.39%	2,966	26.12%
30 HILLSDALE	16,768	10,366	5,931	61.82%	35.37%	4,435	26.45%
24 EMMET	14,536	8,957	5,061	61.62%	34.82%	3,896	26.80%
75 ST. JOSEPH	21,515	13,366	7,569	62.12%	35.18%	5,797	26.94%
28 GD. TRAVERSE	37,720	23,371	13,055	61.96%	34.61%	10,316	27.35%
03 ALLEGAN	44,536	28,847	14,520	64.77%	32.60%	14,327	32.17%
57 MISSAUKEE	6,449	4,359	1,905	67.59%	29.54%	2,454	38.05%
70 OTTAWA	109,645	79,601	27,974	72.60%	25.51%	51,627	47.09%
Total	4,167,685	1,994,693	2,061,952	47.86%	49.47%	-67,259	-1.61%
	1998 District 8 Race - Stabenow vs Munsell
	TOTAL	Susan	Debbie
		Munsell	Stab-ne-now
Ingham (all)	92479	28632	59616	30.96%	64.46%	-30,984	-33.50%
Genesee (Southern & Flint Twp)	39217	13742	24384	35.04%	62.18%	-10,642	-27.14%
Oakland (Rose and Holly Twps)	4808	1866	2659	38.81%	55.30%	-793	-16.49%
Shiawassee (East)	6056	2402	3383	39.66%	55.86%	-981	-16.20%
Washtenaw (Ann Arbor Burbs)	25059	10916	13404	43.56%	53.49%	-2,488	-9.93%
Livingston (all)	50421	26696	21723	52.95%	43.08%	4,973	9.86%
Total	218040	84254	125169	38.64%	57.41%	-40,915	-18.76%
	2000 District 8 Race - Rogers vs Byrum - non redistricted
	TOTAL	Mike	Dianne
		Rogers	Byrum	REP	DEM	Difference	Difference %
Ingham	118092	47363	67923	40.11%	57.52%	-20,560	-17.41%
Genesee	54654	24619	28917	45.05%	52.91%	-4,298	-7.86%
Oakland	6878	3433	3136	49.91%	45.59%	297	4.32%
Washtenaw	36492	18554	16799	50.84%	46.03%	1,755	4.81%
Shiawassee	7744	4289	3300	55.38%	42.61%	989	12.77%
Livingston	73719	46932	25004	63.66%	33.92%	21,928	29.75%
Total	297609	145190	145079	48.79%	48.75%	111	0.04%

[Dan from Michigan]

Michigan 2004 Bush vs Kerry by county

Tri-County(part) 2004 Bush vs Kerry

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Background history

Stab started off in local politics back in Lansing. She was a state rep/state senator for years. She first ran for statewide office in 1994 in an attempt to take out John Engler. She lost to Howard Wolpe in the primary and then became the Lt Governor nominee running with Wolpe(They both run together). Wolpe and Stabenow got their butts kicked by Engler/Binsfeld

In 1996, Stabenow ran for Congress against incumbent Dick Chrysler who won in the 1994 landslide. Chrysler's a good guy, but the unions dumped $2 million in that race and the district leaned slightly democrat. Stab won with 52 or 53% if I remember.

In 98, we should have taken out Stab. Engler was facing Fieger who dragged down the entire ticket. However, Right to life skipped this race. Sue Munsell was pro-choice, and for some reason Stabenow has a following in Livingston County(compared to other dems). Combining the two, it was not good and unfortunatly, springboarded her 2000 race. I posted Rogers 2000 for comparasion with the 1998 race.

Gore/Kerry Counties Stab lost in 2000
Oakland(Both), Arenac(both), Alger(Kerry), Calhoun(Gore), Kalamazoo(Both), Isabella(Both), Ogemaw(Gore), Iosco(Gore), Manistee(Gore), Roscommon(Gore).
Outside of Kalamazoo and Oakland, most of these are more blue collar areas. Oakland was Spence Abraham's home. Kalamazoo is the home of Western Michigan University, and also has a large black population in the city.

Counties Stab won that Bush won
Macomb, Alpena, Iron, Monroe - Bush won them all in 2004 by a close margin.

Stabenow also has problems outside of the Lansing area and Flint/Detroit areas. She had very low numbers for a dem in Bay, Marquette, Lake, and Saginaw which have a lot of social conservatives. Muskegon was a shocker as well. Those 5 areas are all usually 54-55% Spence Abraham ran ahead of Bush in most of the state, especially up North, and that factored in the dem counties as well up there. Alpena was a disaster for Stabenow.

But she made up for in the 8th district pre-redistricting counties. Ingham, Livingston, Washtenaw, Shiawassee, and Genessee.(Only two Oakland twps are there) She ran almost with Gore in Eaton, Jackson, and Clinton counties which are in Lansing's media market. Same with Lapeer which is Flint's market. They aren't in the 8th district, but are in the same media markets.

Ingham County is Stab's home, and she ran slightly ahead of Gore there. She campaigned hard in Livingston County and did well here for a democrat(Bush's 4th best county). She ran even with Gore in Washtenaw and only slightly behind Shiawassee Counties. SWGenesee was in her district, and was her best area outside of Wayne County.

------------------

If the Republican candidate is to beat Stab, he (or she) is going to have to match Spence (or Bush 04) up North. I think that is very possible if you run a pro-lifer and pro-gunner. They don't get worse than Stab on those two - despite what she says. Obstructionism should hurt her up there too.

The GOP has been losing ground in Kalamazoo, Muskegon, Kent(still solid GOP, but not like it used to be), Oakland, and Washtenaw Counties. The bleeding there needs to be taken care of as soon as possible. Some of it is migration(Washtenaw and Oakland), but we need to fight there.

The candidate also has to strike hard at the pre-redistrict 8th district areas. Livingston needs to be able to balance out Ingham County one on one - at least 63%, perferably 65%+. Ingham's a homer so that will be hard to break, but the rural areas could be up for grabs. Byrum got clipped by Rogers on her own turf there to lose overall by 88 votes after the recount. Throw Eaton, Lapeer(Going more GOP) and Jackson into the mix as well there. If Stab loses her regional base there, we'll have an easier time making up those Wayne County votes.

I think we can take Macomb and Monroe. We won those two in a row(02/04) and a Stabenow Democrat is easier to beat than a John Dingell democrat in those two areas.

--------------

So who's in? And who may be in?

Declared
Bart Baron - Frequent candidate from Troy. He has a personal crusade against Joe Knollenberg and is a Buchananite. He switched parties to run as a democrat in 2002, and switched back this year. He's going to lose the primary.

Keith Butler - He's a founder and Bishop of the Word of Faith Christian Center in Southfield. He's an outspoken conservative and is the only known republican to win a seat on Detroit City Council in recent years. Can he cut into enough of the Detroit and Southfield vote against Stabenow? That's the big question.

--------------

Other possible candidates.
Mike Bouchard - Oakland County Sheriff. I really don't know that much about him on the issues. He's won in Oakland County which has been a trouble spot for us.
Nick Smith - Former 7th District congressman. A bit of a moderate and a maverick. Squishy on guns(sometimes goes our way), but also voted to get out of the UN. Fairly low profile. I'd back him over Stabenow.
Jane Abraham - Spence Abraham's wife. I believe she runs a pro-life counter to Emily's list.
Mike Rogers - Congressman who replaced Stabenow in the 8th district. He's got my support if he runs. I think he's the best shot we have, and can eliminate Stabenow's 8th district edge outside of Genesee(which is no longer his district). He even won Ingham County and Lansing itself in 2002, and almost won Ingham in 2004.

There may be other candidates as well.

[drt1]

One can hope - I think Stabinow is doable. Perhaps the corruption and financial debacles of Detroit might actually get the robots there to rethink just who/what is in their best interests - Wouldn't take many.

[Dolphy]

While I don't know that much about AG Cox, I have been impressed with him during the couple of times I've heard him speak. I wish he would consider running but I've read that he isn't.

Do you know anything about Butler?

I am almost embarrassed by the lack of national level Republican talent here. Rove and company certainly aren't adverse to pushing electable talent and the silence is discouraging.

[Dan from Michigan]

2006 ping.

[Dan from Michigan]

I'm 99% positive that Mike Cox and Terri Land are both going to run for re-election. While it's never say never.

All I know about Keith Butler was from his website and his speeches. He has some recognition in the Detroit area and does write some guest columns for the Detroit News.

IMO - Candice Miller and Mike Rogers would take Stabenow out, and maybe Granholm.

[PGalt]

Thanks for the scouting report. Very informative. BUMP!

[Dolphy]

That's what I understand about Cox and Land as well. I also just recently read that Miller is not leaning towards a run at Granholm, though I had been under the impression that she was.

I'm not that familiar with Rogers. Is he the sort of candidate who can create a buzz? I look at how weak the Republicans were against Levin, and how bored the entire state must have been in the Spence-Debbie election and I grow very concerned :)

[Dan from Michigan]

I'm not that familiar with Rogers. Is he the sort of candidate who can create a buzz? i>

Rogers has charisma and is a very good campaigner.

[Dolphy]

A good campaigner with charisma is exactly what we need. I worked hard on the Bush campaign here and I'll do the same thing for a Senatorial candidate that has the energy, record and charisma to run a good race. Besides, I have already advised Debbie that I will work very hard to help defeat her...I need to keep my word:)

[Skybird]

I always thought that Ted Nugent (a.k.a. "Motor City Madman") would be an outstanding senatorial candidate to take on either Levin or Stabenow. Guess that's a no-go now that he's taken up residence not too far from GWB in Crawford, Texas.

[Dan from Michigan]

To be blunt, I think Nugent would be the conservative version of Geoff Fieger and get likely the same results Fieger did. Nuge would probably win Ottawa, Missaukee, Allegan, and Livingston counties - and that's about it.

[ChuckK]

This article says that former Detroit Symphony Orchestra Chairman Peter Cummings is also considering the race. I don't know much about him, but he's apparently Max Fisher's son-in law, so he'd definitely be able to fund his campaign. He was also the 1998 Detroit News "Michiganian of the Year" for whatever that's worth

As for Butler, he seems like he could be another Herman Cain type candidate that excites the national base. The only question is whether he would get treated like Marvin Scott or Barack Obama should he make it out of the primary.

Another positive about Nick Smith is that he voted against the prescription drug bill despite strong pressure from Hastert and Candice Miller, so he's principled and would be backed big time by the Club for Growth (though he's a little old for my liking).

[Clintonfatigued]

"Stab won with 52 or 53% if I remember."

Actually, Stabenow won by 55% to 45%. It was one of the better showings against an incumbent Congressman that year.

[Clintonfatigued]

Keith Butler does have a personal fortune, or at least that's what I read. However, he is a largely unteseted candidate. I think he should run for another office, like Wayne County Commissioner or something like that. While he has a lot of good qualities, he doesn't strike me as ready for prime time.

Michael Bouchard would be an excellent candidate if he can raise the money. His history of winning votes in Oakland County would be an invaluable asset.

[ride the whirlwind]

Thanks for compiling all of this information in one thread.

[Dan from Michigan]

Bouchard's in

[Dan from Michigan]

Bouchard's out. Health reasons.