Posted on 2/14/2005, 6:09:36 PM by FlyLow
(CNSNews.com) - Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States.
Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world.
The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities."
According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States will continue to dominate the next decade both economically and militarily; and the U.S. is "positioned to replicate the investment boom of the 1995- 2005 decade."
The forecast also says the U.S. gradually will shift its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Pacific basin. Stratfor predict the U.S. will triumph over the "jihadist" insurgents; and it predicts "major leadership transitions" in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
The forecast also says Europe's political union will collapse but its economic union will endure. Tensions will increase over Muslim immigration to European nations, the analysis said. And it said Russian attempts to expand could present new problems.
Russia is collapsing and will become increasingly nationalist and anti-Western, Stratfor said in a "highlights" press release.
China's economic growth will slow down, the analysis predicted, leading to a "flight of investment." Moreover, China will experience "social upheavals" because of the gulf between rich and poor.
Japan will succeed China as the principal Asian power, and Taiwan will align itself with Japan, the forecast said.
Stratfor, based in Austin, Texas, said it draws on a global network of intelligence sources in formulated its global analyses.
Damn. Good forecast but Strafor is never right.
Was just about to ask that very question...
The USA SHOULD be number one. Those who stand with us, KUDOS!
Those who stand against us: DOOM ON YOU!
Wow... ya think?
They are partially right. US will dominate as long as Republicans hold power. The old EU will flounder, while the former East Bloc countries rise in world stature.
Sounds questionable.
I agree with most of this.
I think Russia could go in a number of directions - becoming anti-Western is one of them.
I also believe that Vietnam will become the next pool of cheap labor and may undergo significant Westernization - which will be the reason for the reversal of China's recent fortune.
Time will tell but America's future important partners are India, Japan, and Austriala.
The real question is: How much is this going to cost us? Seems that if America leads the world, it must pay all the bills and forgive all the debts owed to us.
I think this is a very expensive position for us to be in.
Japan will eclipse China????
> Japan will succeed China as the principal Asian power, and Taiwan will align itself with Japan,
When the moon is in the seventh house, and Jupiter aligns with Mars...
China has not yet tasted competition. As soon at that happens, the cracks in the banking system will show.
The problem with China is that its system cannot absorb creative destruction. And that is the problem the Soviet system had.
A democracy can absorb creative destruction. It could let the huge, subsidized state enterprises go bankrupt.
China cannot because a population wedded to the "iron rice bowl" would riot. So it has to export like crazy to get the cash to subsidize the money pit state enterprises because its system is to fragile to survive large scale unemployment.
I tend to believe that God means for us to remain dominant. We are the bastion of Christianity and it doesn't seem too far a stretch to think that He planned it that way for the final battles to come. Even as we seem to be heading for the cesspool of decline, the rest of the world is sliding even faster...
What does Wretchard of FR and Belmont fame think of this?
A broken clock is right a couple times a day. This makes more sense than anything else. I can not see how anyone can be high on the health of Europe longterm. Japan should be ready to roar again, and there is no reason the US won't keep its dominance. The biggest problem is I think China will remain strong.
Nah. Too much corruption. Too much cronyism. The Sov, er, Russian economy has the same world dominating potential the Nazi's economy had: none at all.
Remember when everybody thought the "tigers" of SE Asia were going to take off like a rocket, then they tanked? Look for Russia to go the same way.
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