I think the (typical and tired MSM) spin that recruiting is more successful in Europe because of Iraq is pure b.s. Everything I've read is that the non-Iraqi insurgents are almost entirely from neighboring countries. Fighting the U.S. ain't nothing -- in terms of rewards and, especially, of punishments -- like fighting the Russians (low morale, inept, ill equipped) or the Bosnian Serbs (corrupt, thuggish, ill disciplined). In most places where your itinerant islamists go jihading they can preen and posture as heroes, and much of the population treats them as such, or did in recent years. That ain't the case in Iraq. Their support is rapidly evaporating even in Sunni regions since the transfer of sovereignty and then the elections. Arab media is increasingly turning against them as well. Young men, particularly from tribalistic or "honor" cultures like those associated with Islam, won't make sacrifices if they can't be heroes, and perceived as such.
I'm no expert in any sense, but for whatever it's worth a year ago I would have guessed it would take 5 to 10 years to completely defeat the Iraqi insurgency. Now I'd guess 2 or 3 max. I'd also bet there will henceforth be a steady decline in insurgent/terrorist activity, with few if any significant rallies.
Again, I'm no expert, but I've found in pretty safe to far to assume the opposite of what the MSM predicts.
They may be running out of willing suicide bombers. In fact some have been chained to their cars which sugests taking a person's family hostage might be a motivation. But is there any real evidence that the insurgents are losing support in the sunni neighborhoods?
They didn't participate in the vote and there are no real indications that I've seen that they've turned on the insurgents. If you see it please let me know as I would like to agree with you but the number of attacks seems to remain relatively constant if shifting more toward ING targets that are less well protected.
I think it as likely that Iraq will devolve into ethnic civil war.