Possible military coup in Syria debunked

Publius Pundit ^ | 03/17/2005 | Robert Mayer

[Robert Mayer]

Just got an email back from Joshua Landis from Syria Comment, who is inside Damascus.

Dear Robert, Someone has a rich imagination. All is normal here as far as I can tell. Sunny spring day and everyone is bustling about happily. The military attaché at the US embassy just emailed me about what he should wear to dinner tonight - casual or formal? Didn't suggest bullet proof vest, so I assume all is normal.

Best to you from Damascus. Joshua

Great to know. I guess we can all calm down a bit, and chalk it up to rumor for now.

DOUBLE DENIAL: Sasa from The Syrian News Wire emails me this:

Hi Robert, You just made my heart miss a few hundred beats. Everything quiet here, nothing from anyone I've spoken to in the last few minutes. And it would be hard to cover up anyway, with the number of foreign journalists here at the moment. Who on Earth fed you such a gorgeous nightmare? S.

Nothing to see here, folks. Or there, for that matter. She also has a little info about the LFP which is worth noting:

Ohhhhh. Thanks for the info Robert! Word of warning. Take anything that comes out of LFP with a bucket full of salt. They are the post-Phalange group (the Israeli army's proxy in Lebanon during the Civil War). Unfortuantely, as much as I support the Lebanese Opposition movement inside Lebanon, the outsiders (like LFP and other American based organisations) have a very different agenda to the real, nationalist independent opposition (like Walid Jumblatt - he's even called for a dialogue with Hizbollah and close relationship with Syria, even keeping some troops in if there's no political interference).

[Robert Mayer]

Hope this clears everything up for everyone. The original laughable material can be found here.

[sunnysky]

Quote "The original laughable material can be found here"

Laughable?

I think not. Something IS going to happen there. VERY believable at this point. To say that it is laughable is beyond comment.

[deepFR]

Too bad, if they were busy fighting each other, maybe they would have fewer resources available to them to abet insurgency in Iraq.

[Strategerist]

To say that it is laughable is beyond comment.

What's laughable is the amazing amounts of blind faith that FReepers put into reports from obscure foreign sources they've never heard of before.

[Robert Mayer]

Exactly my point.

[talosiv]

I smell info ops. Someone turning up the heat on Assad a couple of degrees.

-R

[Billthedrill]

Pity, really - it would have put a spotlight on a group of people who are more responsible than most for the death and destruction in that part of the Middle East. Ah, well, their time will come...

[sigSEGV]

Yeah. Next thing they'll be saying Libya will voluntarily give up its nukes, or Iraq will have free elections.

[Robert Mayer]

Relevance?

[nettuno]

What about the possible location of WMD in the Beeka'a valley? Any sources on that?

[Robert Mayer]

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=582
I noted it in one of my Lebanon roundups. It is well known that the military has satellite imagery of trucks moving to and from Iraq to the Bekaa Valley. It is also known to be swarmed with Syrian intelligence, drugs, and weapons. Strangely enough, a ton of explosives was found missing from there a week before Hariri was killed. Heh. I wouldn't put too much money on it, but I would put at least some pocket change.

[nettuno]

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that at least some of the WMD are there. Why do you say we should not put to much money in this Idea. I think if Assad comes clean it could be a way to keep himself in power.

[Robert Mayer]

Well, I say it for a couple of reasons. Since the Syrian army and intelligence is withdrawing to the Bekaa Valley before withdrawing to the border, they could do the same thing that previously happened: move the stuff. The pictures from the Lebanese news services of the troops withdrawing show vehicles that are all completely covered. If the stuff is in Bekaa, then I think Assad will try to move it back to Syria.

[FreedomNeocon]

Whats amazing is that the hypocracy keeps you 'safe' from being tricked, also makes you useless and an annoyance in these threads.

If all you're going to do is 'make fun' and critize people for being "so dumb", you really should just stick to your 'strategic' threads.

I have a hard time flaming you, and I really don't mean to offend you personally, because alot of what you write is brilliant.

I just don't get why you feel the need to go around to all of the speculative threads telling people how childish and stupid they are for beliving a plausable argument from a source you don't deem "worthy"

With the net, the only thing DUMBER than beliveing everything you read, is not believing anything you read.

[nettuno]

Maybe, but the the problems he is having in Lebanon can be easily transferred to Syria. What if instead of Beirut, you have 1.5 million people in the streets of Damascus? How long can the regime survive? Obviously it is now harder to stop manifestations since he has 150 000 US troops on his border. Would it no be better for him to give us the WMD's, then blame it all on the Hezbollahs and Iran? This way he becomes a Ga-daffy or a Mubarak, i.e. a new champion of change. Obviously he gets to stay in power.

[Robert Mayer]

Anything is kind of speculation at this point. We do know that Assad is weaker than his father, and the military hardliners don't like that. On the other hand, "Hama rules" may come into play, and that would be worst case, especially if they have the WMD.

What you suggest I have seen floated as well. The possiblity that he is negotiating with the U.S. to suddenly go good, become a national hero, and keep his status through a fair election that overwhelmingly sweeps him into office.

Like I said, anything like this is speculative. I'm just waiting to see what happens. I don't think a giant protest will erupt in Damascus though.

[JeffersonRepublic.com]

Baghdad Bob, speaks up

[Paul C. Jesup]

Like when the U.S.S.R. lied that they were having no problems while Chernobyl had a nuclear meltdown.

It's not like a tyranny hasn't lied before when they were having problems, both in external and internal cases.

The Syrian comment in this artilce could be a lie.

[sunnysky]

Yeah WHATEVER

[FreedomNeocon]

Well they are continuing to update free-lebanon.com not backing down from their story. Still seems like a super long shot, but at the VERY least, an highly interesting piece of 'fiction'

---

March 18, 2005
Damascus Rebellion: Update #4
Syria's Secret Wars

The following information arrived from Syria last night:

The Air force base of Dumair around the capital Damascus has been attacked. This base for the Syrian Air force is in charge of protecting the capital Damascus. Maher el Assad who is in charge "temporarily" of the Air Force Military Intelligence command gave the orders to attack the base. There are around 15 Syrian officers pilots dead, the base has been "cleaned up" after the attack and the presumed casualties have been declared "transferred" to a different military base within Syria. Another attack was launched against a similar military base around Katana and West of Homs in Syria, we have no reports yet of the number of casualties there. This news was confirmed from delicate sources within the Syrian Military.

The withdrawal of the Syrian Army from Lebanon precipitated a negative moral effect on the Alawite regime in Syria. Things were getting unstable inside the Syrian military after the withdrawal from Lebanon. On one side between Sunnis and Alawite and the other side between Old Guard officers and New Guard in charge of the regime.

When President Bashar Assad assumed power in Syria, his first move he did was to replace the Old Guard by a New Guard to better protect his regime interests. Indeed, General Ghazi Kannan was removed from "Military Intelligence" duty and given the "Interior Ministry" in Syria. General Hassan Khalil who headed the Military Intelligence was also removed from his post and replaced by his deputy then General Assef Shawkat, Bashar's brother in law.

The removal of Ghazi Kanaan from the military Intelligence didn't prevent Kanaan from retaining a powerful structure within the Alawite command in Syria, indeed he had and still has popularity among the Army and Intelligence officers.

To consolidate his relations with the West, Kanaan kept in contact with the "CIA" station based in Jordan. He hoped that one day they will help him consolidate Syria under his control in a fashion that he will become Syria's strong man in the future. He mislead the Americans many time in Iraq, and is still misleading them by playing a double game in helping and deceiving them at the same time to gain US trust to enforce his political stature inside Syria and gain the momentum to defeat the US Forces in Iraq--an old traditional Syrian game .

Ghazi Kanaan, unhappy from his withdrawal of his Military Intelligence position, pushed General Rustom Ghazaleh, his trusted "lieutenant," to fill his place in the Syrian Military Intelligence for Lebanon, a structure that control a billion dollar industry in that country. Rustom is a loyal officer that does not oppose nor object to Ghazi's sympathies and loyalties. When President Assad decided on the withdrawal of the Syrian Troops from Lebanon, Kanaan, to test the water with Bashar Regime, financed and supported a military and intelligence network within the Army and the Intelligence apparatus to stay loyal to him and extend his influence on the ground. Kanaan's, staying behind the scenes, network started to distribute news among the Syrian Army against the withdrawal from Lebanon and its danger to the Alawite community. Without taking any chances, the Regime alarmed that this situation could spread inside the military and go out of control, 3 military bases were attacked simultaneously around 3 AM by Air and Land assault. Most of the Syrian officer dead were military pilots at the Doumair base in charge of protecting Damascus. There are some casualties in Katana and around Homs bases also, we do not have details yet as this hour. We will try to provide few names at a later stage.

Intelligence indications coming from Syria reported that Kanaan was rallying support among the Army barracks and Intelligence networks in Damascus. President Bashar Assad left the capital leaving Gen. Assef Shawkat in place trying to defuse the tension and find a compromise. There are no indication of the whereabout of President Assad as this hour. Reports indicate he was between Aleppo and Western Syria, some demonstrations were held yesterday in Tartous favoring his support .

The situation is calm today but the tension remains very high within the military, yet things can break out any minute . The situation looks normal but is not normal.

The divisions are deep within the Army and Intelligence command between Gen. Assef Shawkat, Bashar and Maher Assad versus Ghazi Kanaan and his group of officers in the Army and Intelligence. There is a temporary "truce" declared to figure out the outcome of this reality but nobody can predict its durability as every camp is reinforcing its potential for survival. Both Syrian camps have weight, influence and power within the Alawite constituency in Syria.

Yesterday, by instruction of Ghazi Kanaan, Syrian General Rustom Ghazaleh held a meeting with all the Security Chiefs of the Lebanese Intelligence services in the Presidential Palace in Lebanon with the knowledge of President Lahoud. The purpose of the meeting was to put a political plan into action to clear them and clear Syria from any involvement in Prime Minister Hariri's murder. Technically, after taking their time to remove and clear all evidence of Syria participation in the Hariri murder, General Jamil Asseyed, in a secret understanding with General Rustom Ghazaleh, held a press conference yesterday putting himself at the service of the investigation.

We hope our friends in Damascus had a nice Party last night as we warn them the situation is not as "normal" as they think. The Regime in Syria is not going to brief the US Press, nor the Embassy nor the Syrian Public as to what is being prepared and done secretly behind the scenes.
Things are reaching a serious stage