Posted on 03/21/2005 6:55:49 PM PST by RWR8189
GOP state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka is preparing to run for governor -- raising money, polling and reaching out to key state and national Republicans.
If all goes as planned, Topinka, elected three times as state treasurer and a former chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, is expected to announce a bid to topple Gov. Blagojevich when the legislative session ends, sometime in late spring or early summer.
Last week in Washington, Nancy Kimme, Topinka's chief of staff who doubles as her top political adviser, met with Michael Stokke, the deputy chief of staff for House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) who handles Hastert's political portfolio. She also met with representatives of the Republican Governors Association.
I ran into Kimme outside of Stokke's office in the Capitol.
Kimme is briefing key state and national Republicans on a poll Topinka commissioned to test the treasurer's viability and Blagojevich's vulnerability.
Nationally, the White House and GOP campaign organizations are interested in mounting 2006 challenges in Democratic blue states, such as Illinois. The Bush White House might play a role in brokering the Illinois GOP primary a year from now in order to prevent a bruising, expensive primary.
The poll of 800 likely Illinois voters was conducted March 6-8 by Republican pollster Linda DiVall with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. The upbeat results cleared a hurdle for Topinka, who wants to run only if she is convinced she is the Republicans' strongest candidate to pit against the governor.
Since January, Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) and Ron Gidwitz, a businessman and former state schools chief, have been traveling the state, testing the waters for a gubernatorial campaign. Ice cream chain owner and investment-fund manager Jim Oberweis is also mulling a run for governor, despite two GOP primary defeats for the U.S. Senate.
The other major hurdle still remaining for Topinka is financial. Topinka has been working the phones, telling potential donors she can be competitive in a governor's race if she has the financial resources to match Blagojevich. As of Dec. 31, Blagojevich reported a $10.4 million cash-on-hand balance in his war chest.
On Sunday, Pete Giangreco, a Blagojevich campaign consultant, told me the governor expects to have a $20 million bankroll for his second-term campaign. Giangreco said the governor has been stepping up the pace of his fund-raising in the last few weeks.
I usually don't write about candidate polls because campaigns only want to reveal a few self-serving pages. I am reporting on the Topinka poll because I was able to look at all the results.
The poll showed that Blagojevich's approval rating was at 48 percent and his disapproval number at 45 percent.
Unlike Blagojevich, whose political strength rests in Chicago and its suburbs, Topinka has a strong statewide base and could win just by adding a very few points on the margins, the poll found.
Other findings from the Topinka poll:
*Asked if it was time for a new person to be governor, 47 percent said "yes."
*In a hypothetical November 2006 horse race, Blagojevich and Topinka start in a tie. Asked to choose between the two, 42 percent were for Topinka and 45 percent for Blagojevich, with 11 percent undecided.
*Blagojevich is popular with women, especially those who are more than 60 years old.
*The abortion issue will likely be a factor in a GOP primary that Topinka will have to confront. Some 42 percent of GOP primary voters are anti-abortion, and the issue impacts their vote. Topinka supports abortion rights, but she is in favor of parental notification for minors and is against late-term abortion.
*Topinka is not likely to be politically punished for presiding over the state party during the U.S. Senate debacle last year -- the withdrawal of Jack Ryan and the installation of Alan Keyes as his replacement.
Giangreco said Blagojevich's job-approval ratings were at an acceptable place and, foreshadowing what may lie ahead, said "Topinka stands for the past -- she sits on the sidelines and criticizes -- it will be hard for her to do any 'change' campaign.''
They're both a couple of hacks from political dynasties. Same old, same old.
What's Alan Keyes doing these days?
Oy vey.......
Topinka got that joke of a candidate, Alan Keyes to run Illinois as head of the Republican party. Not only that she appears weak as a conservative.
Somebody needs to get Bloggo out of there.
What about Henry Hyde and the now retired Peter Fitzgerald?
Judy is not the answer. I'm not going to get into who's a RINO or a "real" Repubiclan, but we need a new face. The George Ryan stench will pick up again in September when his trial starts. Even if Judy was a rock-hard conservative, the fact that she's been a Republican state wide official from the George Ryan days is going to be a liability. Blago is vulnerable.
Topinka is George Ryan in drag. She's a power-hungry hack who will only further weaken the already insipid Republican Party in Illinois. I know that she's a child of God, but she's also one disgusting human being.
Anyone tied to Lyin' Ryan needs to be primaried.
Singing is my guess. He did a lot of that during the campaign. Somewhere over the rainbow seemed to be his favorite....
Hastert is also a RINO. The only conservative from IL used to be Philip Crane. Hastert hates Crane.
Crane was my rep, and though he may have been a conservative, he should have seen the writing on the wall and retired.
How is Hastert a RINO? His voting record proves to be a conservative Republican voting record.
http://www.issues2000.org/IL/Denny_Hastert.htm
Forgot about Fitzgerald...don't know who Henry Hyde is, though.
To quote an earlier post, "Oy vey ....."
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