FRANCE WARNS NO PLAN B IF VOTERS REJECT EU CONSTITUTION(is this a threat?)

Tocqueville Connection ^ | 04/16/05

[TigerLikesRooster]

But Barnier expressed confidence that the French government could yet change voters ' minds despite new opinion polls confirming that most voters oppose the historic text, due to be put to the vote on May 29.

FRANCE WARNS NO PLAN B IF VOTERS REJECT EU CONSTITUTION Received Saturday, 16 April 2005 09:18:00 GMT LUXEMBOURG, April 16 (AFP) - French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier warned Saturday that Paris has no plan B if voters reject the EU constitution in a referendum next month, reiterating that a "no" would seriously weaken France.     But Barnier expressed confidence that the French government could yet change voters' minds despite new opinion polls confirming that most voters oppose the historic text, due to be put to the vote on May 29.     "It has been clearly explained that if France rejects this constitution, it would be weakened both in terms of its ideas and its interests," he said, speaking on the sidelines of a meeting with his EU counterparts in Luxembourg.     But he said: "I am confident that in the coming weeks, ahead of May 29, we can make people understand the stakes."     The constitution, which aims to streamline decision-making in the expanded 25-member European Union, must be ratified by all member states. A rejection in France, one of the EU's largest countries, would effectively kill the treaty.     Barnier said Paris had no alternative proposals in the case of a French no vote. "We have put everything on the table. There will not be another constitution," he said.     "There cannot be any other discussions for a very long time, and we will remain with the current treaties and we know that these treaties are unsatisfactory."     President Jacques Chirac launched a personal effort to persuade voters on French television Thursday night. But two new opinion polls Saturday indicated opposition to the EU constitution had increased to 56 percent of voters.     The French minister denied that Chirac had miscalculated.     "I think he wanted himself to make this referendum into a popular vote, because it is a very important text for Europe and for France, and (he wants) every French person to express their view."     "Every French person must take responsibility. That is the choice on May 29," he added. http://www.ttc.org/200504160918.j3g9ig607662.htm

[austinTparty]

Your reply is a bit confused. A "no" vote maintains French sovereignity, a "yes" vote surrenders to Brussels---and you think a "no" makes France the dictator of Europe??? A "no" vote is the only way to eviscerate this terrible leviathan of a constitution.

Despite what many FReepers think, a weak, failed Europe is most emphatically NOT in the US' best interest. A strong, vibrant thriving Europe is--as a trading partner, as a counterweight to Chinese nationalism, as another pressure point on Arab oil dominance, as a counterweight to Salafist Islamists... and the way to achieve a Europe which can partner with the US is to encourage a "Europe as common market", not a political entity which ossifies socialism into a constitution. Tempting though Schadenfreude may be, be careful that you don't cut off more than your nose to spite your face.

[meatloaf]

I guess that means the elimination of Iranian nuclear facilities will have to wait until after the vote.

[hinckley buzzard]

"Every French person must take responsibility. That is the choice on May 29,"

Imagine, having your future depend on the French taking responsibility. ay-yi-yi.

[PAR35]

France would in effect be the dictator of Europe.

Only if they learn to speak German and make Berlin the capitol.

[ScaniaBoy]

Two new polls after Chirac's TV-"debate" show an increasing No lead:

Both CSA and Ifop have a 56% vs 44% lead for the NO's. CSAs previous poll had the No in the lead with 55-45, and Ifop 53-47.

The lead is now growing to numbers where it will be almost impossible for the French establishment to cheat. But it is still 6 weeks to the referendum.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #25

I suppose they need really convincing excuse to put off the vote.

[ScaniaBoy]

I suppose they need really convincing excuse to put off the vote.

Yes, they do.

I have said before that one should be wary about the French foreign policy the closer we get to the referendum. I think the only chance Chirac has is to engineer a major international crisis. If he can argue that it is France (and EU) against the US (or China, or Israel, or...) then maybe he will be able to pull off a win.

And a win is extremely important for him. A loss and he may lose the chance to defend his presidency. If he isn't reelected he will drop his immunity and will probably face a messy corruption trial.

But there is another possibility. He may do a "de Gaulle", and make a complete turn around vis-à-vis EU after a No win. He could stand for a pro-French, anti-EU, anti-globalisation policy, which could possibly give him another period in the Elysee palace.

That would be an interesting development since that could mean a partial breakup of the EU. (snivel, snivel)

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #27

So much political capital have been invested in EU by French elites. They have been working on it for decades. If Chirac suddenly turn against EU, I wonder other French elites would put up with him. Wouldn't they turn him in if that happens?

[ScaniaBoy]

Sure , it would be a gamble. But his party (and the whole right) is doing badly in France at the moment. If a "renationalized" Chirac wins traction in some early polls, there may well be a majority of politicians on the right who will support him.

Remember that Front National has about 15% of the national vote. The traditional parties on the right are squeezed by the re-emergent socialists and FN. They need a question that would vitalize their supporters.

The French has only really been in favour of the European unification as long as it 1) protected them against German aggression 2) made France an important player on the world stage, and 3) was economically advantageous.

At the moment it is questionable if the EU gives France any of these advantages.

Germany is not seen as a threat at the moment. With declining birth numbers, aging population, massive unemployment, and the a unreformed East Germany, it is hard to see Germany as a threat in the near future. However, I would guess that French policy would still be directed towards forming a "core" EU, ie Germany, France, Belgium, and maybe the Netherlands. That would probably be an idea that would be supported both by the right and the left.

But of course this may all be pipe-dreams. Chirac may not even consider his continued presidency in danger, even if he loses the referendum...

[Southack]

"This thing is going to pass, one way or the other."

France is far too corrupt to let mere democracy interfere with their elite plans.

Regardless of what the French vote for or against, the French government will report that the EU vote passes.

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

Can we 'filibuster' the vote from the U.S.?

Some Euro-Leftists tried to interfere in our November elections...particularly in Ohio.

[iopscusa]

SB, thanks for the ping, like your tagline:
Right Wing Research AND Attack

[SevenofNine]

You know what I wonder if we seeing the end of Chiac political career if EU vote is reject by Frogs