What was the date of the re-start?
Their date patterns may be so obvious as to betray their re-stocking of Po-210 triggers.
Posted on 04/19/2005 11:27:44 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
U.S. policy on North seen in flux
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April 20, 2005 - WASHINGTON - Speaking to an American newspaper, North Korea's top diplomat in New York said the country has shut down its nuclear reactor and plans to increase its nuclear deterrent. At the same time, the United States warned that it may soon change its policy and clamp down on the North economically and militarily.
According to a report in USA Today, Han Song-ryol, North Korean deputy ambassador to the United Nations, said Monday that his government has shut down its reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex and plans to remove spent fuel rods to build bombs in efforts to increase the country's deterrent power against a possible U.S. attack. The communist state claims that it is nuclear armed and has been warning repeatedly that it would increase its nuclear stockpiles. The South Korean government confirmed Monday that North Korea's five-megawatt reactor was shut down sometime this month. The action escalates tensions on the Korean Peninsula, as it implies an imminent upgrade of Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programs.
White House spokesman Scott McClellan warned Monday that Washington could refer the issue to the UN Security Council if North Korea refuses to come back to six-party nuclear disarmament talks.
A U.S. State Department official spoke of tougher options. Speaking to the JoongAng Ilbo on condition of anonymity, the official said Washington believes that Pyongyang, if left alone ,will eventually conduct a nuclear test. He said the United States would likely impose economic sanctions against North Korea in a few months, adding that Washington will have to act, rather than "bluffing," during the summer to cope with the worsening situation.
He said the United States will seek cooperation with Japan on economic sanctions, and that it expects opposition from China and South Korea. While the actual impact of economic sanctions imposed by the United States alone will be relatively small, Japan-led sanctions could be damaging. China is North Korea's largest trade partner, followed by South Korea and then Japan.
The State Department source also mentioned the possibility of increasing military pressure on the North, including sending more U.S. troops and an aircraft carrier to the Korean Peninsula. He said, however, that the United States will wait until June to observe the North's moves.
Seoul yesterday downplayed the statements from Washington. Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said there had been no consultations with South Korea on the matter, adding that he thought it was just a "reminder" to the North.
by Kim Chong-hyuck, Kang Chan-ho <myoja@joongang.co.kr>
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200504/19/200504192231524939900090209021.html |
c#20
Ah... but the year's not out, and the jury's not in.
You know, N. Korea restarted their nuclear reactor again. So they may not do it in next several weeks, but could still do it before the end of this year, technically speaking.
I don't know how many times since 2001 we've already crossed over the "red line", though. Next time we should not threaten anything ... just do it. They'll get the message in Pyongyang soon enough. What a charade. How many more rounds of "six party talks" in Communist Beijing are they going to jack us around on??
Self-Ping for later.
What was the date of the re-start?
Their date patterns may be so obvious as to betray their re-stocking of Po-210 triggers.
Here is the article:
N.Korea restarts Yongbyon nuclear reactor-report
Sun Aug 21, 1:24 AM ET
TOKYO (Reuters) - A U.S. satellite has detected signs that North Korea recently restarted a reactor that could be used for the extraction of material to make nuclear warheads, a Japanese newspaper said on Sunday.
The surveillance satellite detected steam coming out of a boiler connected to a building housing the five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon, Asahi Shimbun said, quoting unnamed sources related to six-way nuclear crisis talks, including a senior U.S. official.
The sources said the steam had been detected before the resumption of the six-way talks in late July that aimed to entice the North to give up its nuclear weapons and bomb-making programmes in exchange for economic aid and security guarantees.
"It is hard to think that the boiler would operate by itself while the nuclear reactor is stopped. It can only be concluded that North Korea has put in new nuclear fuel rods and has restarted the nuclear reactor," Asahi quoted a U.S. government source as saying.
South Korea said in April the reactor's operations had been suspended and the following month, North Korea said it had completed extracting 8,000 fuel rods from the 5 megawatt reactor.
Rods from old-style graphite reactors can be processed to extract plutonium, a key component in nuclear bombs. Restarting the reactor could mean the North aims to extract more plutonium from the new rods.
North Korea said in February that it possessed nuclear weapons.
North Korea has also spread gravel over a road near a separate unfinished 50-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon. Construction was halted in the 1990s under a previous, and now defunct, nuclear agreement with the United States. Repairing the road could be a sign the North is preparing to resume building work, Asahi said.
The Yongbyon complex, around 100 km (60 miles) north of North Korea's capital, Pyongyang, is the center of the communist state's nuclear programmes.
"North Korea has been suggesting that it is ready to scrap such nuclear reactors, but it is steadily expanding the scope of its nuclear development behind the scenes," the senior U.S. official said.
Six-way talks between North and South Korea, the United States, Russia, Japan and China are to resume in the week of August 29 after 13 days of talks in Beijing from late July to early August failed to reach an accord.
source: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050821/ts_nm/korea_north_reactor_dc_1
They re-started the reactor on Sunday?!
That's precisely within the time window for maintaining viable Po-210 triggers. They went 4 months with no reactor, and now they'll have replacement Po-210 triggers available in 3 weeks or less, just as the old triggers expired.
They are spending the minimum possible amount of cash... Running their reactor long enough to build their Po-210 triggers, then offline for 4 months, then re-starting their reactor just before the old triggers expire.
We know the general size of this reactor, so now lets see how long they keep it on-line this time. That should give us a ballpark estimate for the number of Po-210 triggers that they are making, which will show the maximum size of their potential nuclear arsenal.
Four months?
NK went the last four months with their reactor shut down. Now it's been re-started.
Hmmmm, good point.
You can make design trade offs between efficiency and shelf life. Our fizz-fuse-fizz designs have shelf lives of ~ 25 years or more. They aren't very large either. I recent saw a set up for 250 ktons at the Nevada Test Site about half the size of a washing machine.
It's highly unlikely that NK's first generation nuclear weapons, if any, are as advanced as U.S. models.
NK had to be **given** uranium separating centrifuges from Pakistan, for crying out loud! NK hasn't even been confident-enough of their technology to perform a nuke test.
...And the shelf-life for our triggers isn't even 25 years. Pits/Cores would be pushing that timeframe, much less triggers.
Thanks for the ping.
Whether the US takes counter measures earlier or later; before the test or after, it makes no difference. North Korea WILL test a nuke, and they will do it before the year is out."
Clock's ticking.
Looks like I was wrong again. ;>)
I could have told you that months and months ago!
See post #3.
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