Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola - update 14

World Health Organization ^ | 2005-04-21 | WHO

[Boundless]

As of 19 April, the Ministry of Health in Angola has reported 266 cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever. Of these cases, 239 were fatal. In Uige Province, which remains the epicentre of the outbreak, 250 cases, of which 228 were fatal, were reported as of 20 April. ...

[Boundless]

Still spinning old numbers.

A more honest assessment is in this ctv.ca story:
Angola Marburg virus outbreak not yet contained

"Unfortunately the numbers are going up. We don't
see any signs of it being under control. We know
we're in for a hard fight," says Daigle [WHO].
"Whether we're in the peak or the downside, I don't
think our experts know. But we know it's not contained."

[conservative in nyc]

Can the numbers be going up because there is more awareness about the disease, leading to more diagnoses of the disease?

[Pelham]

Marburg + jet aircraft + porous borders =

[Boundless]

> Can the numbers be going up because there is more
> awareness about the disease, leading to more
> diagnoses of the disease?

The point of my posting was that although WHO has at least
posted a "daily" update after a lapse of nearly a week,
the numbers haven't changed since the weekend, and are
lower than numbers we've seen in other reports (e.g. 277
dead in Uige alone).

Late last week, the "authorities" in Angola tighted the
requirements for classifying a case as Marburg, and
"administratively reclassified" many prior cases,
excluding them from the count.

Basically, the numbers were not terribly reliable prior
to the meddling, and now they've basically stopped
telling the world anything credible.

This situation is either coming under control, or is
about to explode.

If it were coming under control, congrats would be due
all around, and they'd have no trouble being honest.

No Reports.
You Decide.

[conservative in nyc]

Sounds like something a UN organization would do. Thanks.

[Boundless]

Worth a ping?

[datura]

Well, when you have the CDC and WHO both avoiding the release of any new data it would be quite hard to doubt that this one has finally left the gates like a horse race. Luanda has what, about 4 million population in the immediate area?

Last honest reports stated that no one had been reporting into the hospital in Ulge and people were hiding their dead. By the time you die from this disease, the virus has invaded nearly every cell - making your corpse extremely virulent. They've stopped the data hoping we'll stop watching, because they've lost control.

[Smokin' Joe]

They've stopped the data hoping we'll stop watching,

I still haven't heard a peep from the MSM about this.

[dsc]

"I still haven't heard a peep from the MSM about this."

Heard a few seconds of old information on Paul Harvey this AM.

[cajungirl]

That might be the scenario but I doubt it.

[ordinaryguy]

[dc-zoo]

Those photos appear much like what I saw on a Fox News clip Saturday night when the reporter mentioned local people were hiding their sick to keep them out of the hospital.

[2ndreconmarine]

As of 19 April, the Ministry of Health in Angola has reported 266 cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever. Of these cases, 239 were fatal. In Uige Province, which remains the epicentre of the outbreak, 250 cases, of which 228 were fatal,

Apparently these numbers are underreporting (wrong) because they are below the total fatalities, just for Uigi (277) listed earlier.

However, assuming they are lying equally on the number of fatalities and the number of cases. Then:

239/266 = 89.9%
228/250 = 91.2%

Therefore:
1. The growth continues.
2. The growth has not slowed down at all.
3. The growth is slow, but clearly inexorable.
4. The growth rate is exponential with a time constant of between 20 and 100 days.
5. These numbers are consistent with the exponential growth rate for 237 ==> 266

[EternalHope]

However, assuming they are lying equally on the number of fatalities and the number of cases. Then:

I agree with your analysis, assuming your assumption that they are "lying equally" is correct.

However, I suspect "lying equally" would be purely accidental... (In fact, if they knew enough to do what you did, I suspect the numbers would have been "administratively adjusted" a little more...)

I'm wondering why we are getting so few reports, and nothing new at all from Uige except government functionaries saying all is well. I have to think good news would be shouted from the rooftops.

[null and void]

ping

[Dog Gone]

It continues to spread, but at what rate? It's impossible to tell.

It isn't quite as contagious as it first appeared, or we'd at least have some anecdotal accounts of thousands of deaths.

And it doesn't appear that it's hit the slums of Luanda. The deaths there were from people from Uige seeking treatment, and it doesn't appear that they infected anyone.

If they can't give us accurate casualty figures, they could at least tell us a little more about the virus. We know it's spread by any body fluid. How long can it live once exposed to air? Can you get Marburg simply by touching such a fluid, or does it have to be ingested or enter through a scratch or sore on your body?

And what happened to the woman who tested positive for Marburg at the hospital and decided to escape to have a baby? I'd love to know who cleaned up that mess.

[bitt]

back up Judith Anne ping list -

[Boundless]

WHO Update for 22 April is on-line.
Pretty much content-free.

Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola - update 15

[Mears]

It's the approximately 95% death rate that scares the heck out of me.

Good Lord!

[bitt]

http://allafrica.com/stories/200504220446.html

Health Ministry Sets Up Group Against Marburg Fever
Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique (Maputo)

April 22, 2005
Posted to the web April 22, 2005

Maputo

The Mozambican Health Ministry has set up a working group with the task of collecting information on the Marburg haemorrhagic fever and to advise on the necessary means to equip the country's health units to face the epidemic in case it should reach Mozambique.

Health ministry spokesperson Martinho Djedje told reporters that the possibility of this disease reaching Mozambique is still remote, but his institution created the group as a matter of prevention.


Djedje said that, in terms of staff, Mozambique is prepared to respond to an eventual outbreak of the disease.

Besides collecting information, for use by health staff and the public at large, the ministry is also working to identify suitable places where any eventual cases can be treated.

Another preventive measure is the monitoring of the health status of all people visiting the country from Angola, where the disease has killed over 230 people.

After the outbreak of Marburg fever in Angola, on 22 March, several African countries, including South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Uganda and Cameroon, have been taking preventive steps to face the situation in case they become affected. The first cases of Marburg Fever in Angola were detected in October last year, but only on 22 March did the authorities declare that an outbreak of the deadly disease was under way. 264 cases have been diagnosed, so far, that have resulted in 239 deaths.

This is the most serious outbreak of Marburg fever on record. Before the Angolan outbreak, cases of the disease were reported in the DRC between 1998 and 2000, with 123 known deaths.