Angola Marburg/Ebola Growth Rate Plots

Free Republic | April 30, 2005 | 2ndreconmarine

[Covenantor]

Here's the lastest plot by 2ndreconmarine

[Covenantor]

Plot 5 above

[Covenantor]

Plot 5 above

[Dog Gone]

I wish we could assign a confidence factor to these numbers, but that's not possible given the data we have to work with.

We have the low side--the official reported cases, but we don't have an upside threshold. Presumably that number is even higher than the predicted case numbers, but the data is so squirrely it is at best a trailing indicator.

[Dad yer funny]

I walked by The Zambia Mission to the UN yesterday ,...was quite tempted to just ring the bell ,... but Botswana is the one I think would be more receptive , no?

[2ndreconmarine]

We have the low side--the official reported cases, but we don't have an upside threshold.

Actually, I would argue that the predicted cases are the upside value. The reason is that the predicted cases are based on growth rates before MSF, WHO and other medical volunteers became engaged. They are also before the general population became aware of Marburg and how to stop it.

Therefore, I believe these curves are bounding values, both the high and low sides.