Angola Marburg 2005 Plot 2Posted on 04/30/2005 10:51:57 AM PDT by Covenantor
Here's the archive thread for the 2005 Angola Marburg virus outbreak.
2ndreconmarine has plotted the growth rate and made adjustment which have been posted on several threads.
Here's an easy reference thread.
Please post comments regarding the plots to 2ndreconmarine, as I am merely hosting the images.
Angola Marburg 2005 Plot 2
Angola Marburg 2005 Plot 3
Angola Marburg 2005 Plot 4
marburg ping
Marburg ping
Marburg ping
First, let me qualify. The analysis is based on the WHO-reported data. To the extent it is valid, the analysis is valid. To the extent it is not, the analysis is nonsense.
For example, given the data reported on the thread two days ago, we might have an additional 89, 175, or 264 cases. (c.f. Additional Marburg Cases Thread and subsequent posts)
However, for these data the following apply:
1. The plot will indicate that the growth has slowed markedly. The original growth rate (with best available numbers) was exponential with an 18 day e-folding time. It is much slower after isolation began.
2. Early analysis of the early part of the epidemic indicated even faster growth (9 day e-folding time). However, as revised data were available, the best fit converged on an 18 day e-folding time.
3. The present growth rate is about 20 new cases / week and is appearing roughly linear. However, that could EQUALLY be as well fit by an exponential with a long time constant early in the curve.
4. The growth clearly continues. After the initial slowing down, basically as of April 1, the new growth HAS REMAINED CONSTANT. For example, the ratio D_c/I_c = 255/275 = 92% has remained constant since April 1. Moreover, the number of active cases (reported by WHO in Angola only) is 20, which has also remained constant at 20.
My interpretation of the data is that before April 1, we had fast exponential growth. Now, after significant isolation began, we have slow growth. However, we still have growth, therefore, this is not contained. Moreover, the growth rate has remained remarkably robust; it has not stopped. Indeed, it has remained constant since about April 1.
If the cases outside of Angola or the large number of active cases reported two days ago prove true, then we have an entirely different situation. Indeed, that would be the breakout scenario.
Thanks.
However, it's not been enough to declare it "contained" unless it is meant in the most general terms.
It does appear to be isolated within Uige Province although we have to be concerned with "possible" cases elsewhere.
But as long as it's spreading even only within Uige, it's not contained by any measure we'd be happy with.
Marburg ping (sorry for duplicates)
Agreed, on all points.
Diary from Angola's front line: Part III
I don't have the ping list, so I'm sure a lot of people got left off. Sorry 'bout that.
Interesting graphs.
I guess we'll know for certain in about 30 days...
I remain very concerned about two, as yet, unexplained items.
(1) Cabinda City WHO maps.
-Cabinda was annexed by Angola at the time of independence and there seems to be a lot of animosity between those in Cabinda and the rest of Angola. Given that, Angolan health officials may have political reasons for downplaying any virus in Cabinda. Cabinda is the only other city, besides Uige, to have a WHO map up on the UNOSAT site.
http://unosat.web.cern.ch/unosat/
(2) The lack of updates on the suspected cases in the Conog. There was a suspected case as of 21 April, yet no information has been provided about that case. The other cases, are as of 28 April, 1 week after the first case.
Not looking good. And with a few screwed up reports, a few unreported cases, a few escapees, ...
It appears to be slowing according to published info but the WHO admits that people are dying in their homes and being hidden from officials so I think that makes all the numbers they circulate obviously low and the worst case scenarios seem to be occuring ...
Houston we have a problem...
er, I mean you do ...the non-stop Luanda/Houston flights on sonair...I cannot believe anything reported by people who would have me believe there are no direct flights, either they are knowingly lying or they don't check their facts at all!!!
I am not sure that the numbers aren't at the extreme because of the unknown cases even with all the effort esspecially when I hear that the hospital remains an obvious source...which reminds me of Drs. returning home unquarantined...now that more Drs. and nurses are being infected again...mrsx
As much as we would like to think that the powers of modern medicine would stamp out this disease, the above behavior is possibly pretty effective, if primitive.
There is probably a spreading primitive realization that the patients are doomed and never emerge alive from the hospital. The next best thing is for the sick to hide themselves from the community so they won't be discovered and taken away to die. By now the "grapevine" must have gotten the word out that coming into contact with the sick is also a death sentence. So the sick drag themselves off to die alone, or their families warily wait for them to die. And their neighbors hopefully shun the families -- whether out of realistic fear of disease or "evil spirits" doesn't really matter.
Perhaps primitive superstition is as effective a countermeasure to epidemics as modern medicine. It may just take a little longer to work.
I agree. I am sad for everyone there...the reality of it is too awful to dwell on. I hope it ends soon.
mrsx
Thanks for all your input and work on these threads. Your effort is appreciated.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.