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The Congressional Budget Office released its annual Budget and Economic Outlook this week. Last year’s was a tragedy, but the new one is a horror story. The crushing burden of government debt and persistent unemployment – which, contrary to the carefully massaged statistics released for public consumption, has really been in double digits for years, when the collapsing work force is taken into account – will conspire with skyrocketing taxes after the expiration of the Bush tax rates, and leave us with only 1.1 percent projected GDP growth next year. That will leave us with one of the slowest economies...

China's Debt: You'll Grow Out of It By TOM ORLIK Objects in the rearview mirror are often closer than they appear at first. But in the case of the Chinese juggernaut, rapid economic growth means they are actually shrinking at a rapid rate. In 2011, China's gross domestic product came in at 47.1 trillion yuan ($7.4 trillion). That represented nominal growth of 17.5% from 2010, a blistering pace that makes many of the problems of debt and credit that trouble investors and hang over valuations for Chinese stocks appear a little more manageable. /snip Investors also worry about China's credit...

Paul Hoffmeister is the chief economist at Bretton Woods Research, LLC. According to the polls summarized by RealClearPolitics, Mitt Romney has been unable to win more than 25% of the Republican vote for the party’s presidential nomination for more than a year. This is because the former Massachusetts governor is not a pro-growth Republican. Instead, his economic platform reflects a man who is devoutly Keynesian, and who, as president, would not be able to reinvigorate the U.S. economy. A pro-growth Republican is a “supply-sider” who believes that stable money, low taxes, and limited regulation produce prosperity. And as Art Laffer...

In 2012 The Economy Will Be On 'Firmer, Albeit Unsteady, Footing' Peter Demirali, Cumberland Advisors Dec. 28, 2011, 4:51 PM The last twelve months have been quite remarkable in terms of volatility and absolute levels of interest rates. The bond market was whipsawed by events in Europe and Washington. Greece was the poster child for the debt crisis in Europe but it was merely the first country to feel the wrath of the capital markets. Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and ultimately Italy experienced difficulty accessing the cash markets to roll over debt. You can view the spreads on various European sovereign...

Newt Gingrich is planning to turn to a sharp "jobs and growth" message both on the airwaves and in over 30 appearances next week in the final run-up to the Iowa caucuses, according to campaign officials. Gingrich's campaign, acknowledging that they've seen his Iowa numbers erode under an intense assault, said the former speaker would use a new round of post-Christmas TV commericals and a bus tour across Iowa to draw an implicit but clear contrast between his economic plan and that of Mitt Romney. Gingrich aides are also prepping a round of endorsements from conservative economists and supply-side thinkers...

What Happens When World’s Economic Growth Engine Goes Kaput The Daily Reckoning Dec. 9, 2011, 2:53 PM Europe is the world’s biggest economy. It is menaced by bank and government debt defaults. It is growing old and has far more social spending obligations than it can afford. It is paralyzed by competing national governments and decentralized financial institutions. It can say ‘drop dead’ in 17 different languages. And if Europe goes into a deep or prolonged economic slump, the rest of the world follows. Because Europe is a big customer, not only for Asia, but for America too. The only...

As improbable as the moniker “Tim Tebow, starting NFL quarterback” once seemed, the U.S. economy, like Tebow, is showing signs of resurgence. News that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 9.0 to 8.6 percent in November (though due largely to job seekers exiting the market) is as surprising as Tebow's 6-1 record since becoming the starter. His late-fourth-quarter magic and four come-from-behind victories earned Tebow his teammates' trust, his coaches' confidence and the adoration of Broncos fans. If only America's private-sector “quarterbacks” were liberated to call their own plays and scramble like an unleashed Tebow, America could win the economic...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than originally estimated in the third quarter, mainly because companies reduced inventories and did not invest as much. The Commerce Department cut its estimate of gross domestic product to 2.0% from a first reading of 2.5%. Government’s second revision of GDP includes data not fully available earlier, such inventory levels and trade data. As a result, it paints a more accurate picture of U.S. growth. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the government to trim its estimate to 2.3%. Still, the 2.0% growth rate was the fastest since the fourth...

Economist Doug Elmendorf, head of the Congressional Budget Office, testified before the Senate Budget Committee that President Obama’s $800 billion “stimulus” package reduced rather than increased employment. “The elemental truth of the matter is that putting money into ventures that generate losses, as was the case for the bulk of the so-called stimulus spending, reduces the resources available to society,” Elmendorf explained. “As resources are reduced there is less economic growth and less demand for workers.” The CBO’s analysis was challenged by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. “The fact is, we put money into businesses that the private sector spurned,” Geithner...

Deutsche Bank Has A Super-Bullish Take On The Latest Economic Data Simone Foxman Nov. 18, 2011, 12:12 PM Image: babblingdweeb / Flickr Deutsche Bank economists Joseph LaVorgna and Carl Riccadona wax hugely positive about the U.S. economic outlook in a new note out this morning. Particularly convincing is that they made a prediction for today's release of leading economic indicators that came in right on the mark for a 0.9% increase. In fact, with LEI gains for 16 out of the last 17 months, nothing here suggests a recession: There have never been false upswings in the LEI from which...

You'll Never Guess The Only Part Of The Economy Not Growing Joe Weisenthal Nov. 7, 2011, 8:11 AM From Goldman... Image: Goldman Sachs

The United Nations estimates that the world's population reached 7 billion people this week, growing to 9 billion by midcentury. Lots of people think the more the merrier. That is anything but the case when it comes to the explosive rate of population poor Mother Earth is having to endure. How will we feed all these newcomers? To satisfy the world's food needs, production will need to rise between 70 percent and 100 percent, according to experts. This alone is a task of phenomenal magnitude considering climate change's impact on weather patterns, a destabilized agri-foods market and today's global economic...

In an announcement that is likely to deepen concerns over the U.S. economic woes the Federal Reserve has slashed growth and employment projections for 2011 and 2012. Data projections released by the Fed suggested that it had revised a measure of the average, or “central tendency,” for the U.S. economy's 2011 gross domestic product growth rate from the 2.7-2.9 per cent range to the 1.6-1.7 per cent range. Similarly, the central bank cut its 2012 projection for growth from the 3.3-3.7 per cent range to the 2.5-2.9 per cent range. Unemployment which in June the Fed projected would hover between...

The U.S. may face a prolonged period of stagnation. That's the warning from a Reuters op-ed written earlier this week by PIMCO CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian. He worries that the U.S. could be on a worse path than Japan was when it began its "lost decade." But he ends with a note of optimism, saying that policymakers have the power to avoid Japan's fate. Both their willingness and ability to do so should worry us, however. Why We Face a Lost Decade What has gone so wrong that the U.S. could be in for a decade or more of...

As the Federal Reserve downgraded its economic projections, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke admitted that the central bank's board was in the same distressing position as the average American family — frustrated by the slow recovery, limited in its options and largely reduced to hoping for the best. "I certainly understand that many people are dissatisfied with the state of the economy," Bernanke told reporters Wednesday when asked about the Occupy Wall Street protests. "I'm dissatisfied with the state of the economy." The Fed noted in its official statement after its two-day meeting that economic conditions strengthened somewhat from July through...

ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Drops Further By Doug Short October 21, 2011 The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has now posted 11 consecutive declines since early August. The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. The latest reading, data through October 14, is -10.1, down from the previous week's -9.7. On September 30th, the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st. Early last week, ECRI notified clients that...

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan will add $2 trillion to U.S. GDP, as well as create 6 million jobs, his economic advisor Rich Lowrie told Larry Kudlow Thursday. Lowrie also said under the plan, business investments will increase by one-third and wages will go up by 10 percent. “And if you fold all that growth together,” he said, “federal revenues go up by 15 percent.” Cain’s 9-9-9 plan would scrap the current tax code and replace it with a 9 percent tax on personal income and corporations, as well as a new 9 percent sales tax.

Rep. Issa: Regulatory Tsunami Impeding Economic Growth Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49) San Diego Union Tribune, Sep 30 - One of the greatest myths in American politics is that one person can create jobs. Sure, when the economy is strong, the person whose watch it is gets the credit. When the economy is struggling, they get the blame. But let’s be clear and honest, it’s not President Barack Obama who creates jobs. It’s not Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate. It’s not John Boehner, the Republican leader of the House. Job creation stems from the innovators and entrepreneurs in our...

As the headlines of Greek tragedy and Italian farce continue, one solid national performance has been largely overlooked. And that’s a pity because Ireland’s relative success seems to show that there is a way out for countries like Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain as they struggle with their debts. This is something we might expect the euro zone’s leaders to be trumpeting whenever they can. Of course, like Greece and Portugal, Ireland’s economy was bailed out, back in 2010, and had to promise some pretty harsh austerity to get its cash. But now, while Greek five-year credit default swaps are...

Among the colossal fallacies that keep our economy mired in unemployment, few loom as large as the notion that "creating" jobs leads to growth and prosperity, rather than the other way around. In fact, when jobs are treated as ends rather than means, the perverse effect of pursuing policies designed to artificially inflate employment figures only serves to make things worse. This conflation of cause and effect lies at the heart of entire schools of economics - a science made more dismal by the fact that whenever policy prescriptions fail to deliver their promised benefits, the proposed remedy is to...

THE END OF GROWTH Adapting to Our New Economic Reality (August 2011) Economists insist that recovery is at hand. Yet, unemployment remains high, real estate values continue to sink, and governments stagger under record deficits. The End of Growth proposes a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in our economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable natural limits. Richard Heinberg’s latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, explaining how and why it occurred, and what we must do to avert the worst potential outcomes. Written in...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Confronted with an economy that has decidedly underperformed this year, economists are scaling back their growth forecasts for 2011 and next year. In their latest forecast, top economists with the National Association for Business Economics predict that the economy will grow 1.7 percent this year -- down from the group's May prediction of 2.8 percent expansion. For 2012, the group is forecasting growth of 2.3 percent, compared to a May forecast of 3.2 percent growth. [Snip] The survey was done before President Barack Obama appeared before Congress on Thursday to unveil a new $447 billion plan to...

Republican staffers tell The Daily Caller that new tax cuts and regulatory reforms aimed at jumpstarting the economy will be on the agenda in the House of Representatives when it returns from recess after Labor Day. Staffers say no specifics have been locked in yet. But a significant tax reform package could come this fall, they say, because nothing is likely to be accomplished after the 2012 election cycle begins in earnest. The conservative House Republican Study Committee is also reportedly planning to supplement the Cut, Cap, and Balance plan with a “growth” element including tax cuts and regulatory reforms....

Deficits, unemployment, bad economy. Obama has tried many things, but nothing he does helps. Here is an answer: Seems our solution to jobs, deficit, and by extension, good economic conditions is growth. Stimulus wont do it. Shovel ready jobs wont do it. Spreading the wealth wont do it. Taxing corporate jetowners wont do it. There is one main obstacle to growth. And its name is Barack Hussain Obama. He and his policies are the biggest impediment to a business being willing to spend its own money on the future. They are reluctant to invest while not knowing what the hell...

Citigroup Downgrades Global GDP Growth For 2011 & 2012 Posted: August 25, 2011 at 8:02 amJohn C OGG Citigroup is downgrading the global growth targets for 2011 and 2012. The economic team there now sees the global growth Citigroup cut its 2011 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from a prior rate of 3.4%. More importantly, it is cutting the global GDP growth for 2012 down to 3.2% from 3.7%. This might not seem like much of a cut and might not sound recessionary. Technically it is not, but it just shows that maturing scale of the economy as China...

Appropriately, the core point of contention in political economy, the government’s size and role in society, will be at the center of election-year debate. With rioting abroad as a real-time reminder of what happens with loss of spending discipline, the U.S. economy now faces the near arrival of a long-developing fiscal reckoning, and how it is handled will determine what kind of country we have in the coming century. Stark facts underline the 2012 debate in the U.S.: Job creation and personal income growth are moribund. The U.S. has entered an alternative universe not seen since the 1930s: in the...

In 1850 sub-Saharan Africa had about the same GDP per capita as America. The difference between America’s average standard of living today and that of Burundi is a mere 0.9 percent of extra growth a year. If Presidents Lincoln through Reagan had put in place policies, taxes, or regulations that slowed economic growth a mere 1 percent of what it actually was, 99 percent of us would now be living in soul-crushing poverty. That is why America’s anemic 1.3 percent growth rate last quarter is worrying. Moreover, what was by comparison a sterling 1.8 percent growth rate in the...

Doin’ the Uptown Low Down? – On the Great Migration of Catholics in this Land and What it Means for ParishesBy: Msgr. Charles Pope The cities of the Northeast and upper Midwest were once teeming with Catholics. The city centers featured many and thriving Catholic parishes of various ethnic derivations. Catholics were uptown, down town and all around town. Some of the blocks in the older Chicago neighborhoods would even feature several parishes: there was the Polish Parish, the Irish, the German, and Italian, each of them little cities within themselves. Consider a description of old Chicago and other...

Does It Make Sense To Talk About The U.S. Economy Being In A Recession? Philip Greenspun, philip.greenspun.com Aug. 1, 2011, 6:25 AM Now that the world economy is so tightly linked, what does it mean for a single country to be in a “recession”? A recession implies that there is a business cycle within each country that inevitably expands and contracts. Thus if a country is “in recession”, without any changes in laws, education, tax rates, or attitudes, it will inevitably enjoy strong growth when the recession is over. The world economy has never been in better shape than right...

Spending Has Collapsed, The Economy Is Next Mac Slavo July 29th, 2011 SHTFplan.com We’ve been warning about it since the beginning of this crisis – that consumers are simply not interested in spending money they don’t have. In the first quarter of 2011 the government attempted to convince us that the economy was growing at a slow, but steady, rate of 1.8%. This was used as evidence the economic recovery had taken hold. President Obama and his administration specifically told us that a depression had been avoided: We can safely say that we are no longer facing the potential collapse...

Sometimes, you'll see numbers from the Obama Administration that just make your head wanna explode; and, this morning was no exception.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy slowed in the first six months of 2011 to its weakest pace since the recession ended. High gas prices and scant income gains forced Americans to sharply pull back on spending. The Commerce Department says the economy expanded only 1.3 percent in the April-June period. And it downwardly revised the January-March figures to show growth of just 0.4 percent, the weakest since the recession ended two years ago.

US economic growth is much weaker than first thought, government figures show. The economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. Economists had forecast growth of 1.8%. And in a surprise move, first-quarter growth was revised down sharply from 1.9% to 0.4%. This evidence of economic weakness increases the pressure on the government as it attempts to increase its borrowing limit. Slow growth makes it more difficult for the US to tackle its deficit. If Congress does not raise the debt limit by 2 August, the US government could face funding shortfalls...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for U.S. second-quarter growth to 1.5 percent from 2 percent, citing weak consumer spending. The downgrade follows last week's raft of weak reports on retail sales, manufacturing and consumer sentiment, which have raised concerns that some of the factors impeding growth are no longer of a temporary nature, as previously thought. "Some of this weakness is undoubtedly related to the disruptions to the supply chain -- specifically in the auto sector -- following the east Japan earthquake," said Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius in a weekly note to clients issued...

The day after Rep. Michele Bachmann announced her bid for the White House, one conservative group released a glowing review of the presidential candidate’s record. The Club for Growth, a group that promotes slashing taxes and government spending, released a statement praising Bachmann for her “nearly perfect pro-growth record.” In a press release, Club for Growth President Chris Chocola expressed satisfaction with the possibility of Bachmann as the nation’s leader. “After reviewing her record, we are confident that Congresswoman Bachmann would be a pro-growth president,” Chocola said. Specifically, the group praised Bachmann for her call to reform entitlement programs such...

Faced with the bruising headwinds of high unemployment, weak manufacturing and an otherwise listless economy, Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast for gross domestic product. The firm cut its second-quarter GDP outlook to 2 percent from 3 percent, a stunning blow for an economy expected to be well on the path to recovery following the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. From a policy standpoint, Goldman said it does not expect the subpar growth to change the Federal Reserve's plans to end quantitative easing later this month. However, Goldman economist Sven Jari Stehn acknowledged that "the deterioration in economic activity,...

Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty turned out a blockbuster economic-growth plan this past week, including deep cuts in taxes, spending, and regulations. It's really the first Reaganesque supply-side growth plan from any of the GOP presidential contenders. And he caps it all off with a defense of optimism as he charges ahead with a national economic growth goal of 5 percent. That's right: 5 percent. Pawlenty calls this target aspirational. Okay, fine. But deeper down, he's basically saying no to the declinists and pessimists who seem to populate the economic landscape these days. Big government doesn't work. Let's try something...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Employers hired far fewer workers than expected in May and the jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent, raising concerns the economy might be stuck in a painful slow-growth mode. Nonfarm payrolls increased 54,000 last month, the weakest reading since September, the Labor Department said on Friday. Private employment rose just 83,000, the least since last June, while government payrolls dropped 29,000. Economists had expected payrolls to rise 150,000 and private hiring to increase 175,000. The government revised employment figures for March and April to show 39,000 fewer jobs created than previously estimated. The job creation slowdown confirmed...

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. companies hired far fewer workers than expected in May and output in the manufacturing sector slowed to its lowest level since 2009, adding to concerns that the U.S. recovery is running out of steam. Economists slashed their forecasts for Friday's payrolls report, considered the best barometer of the world's biggest economy, after private-sector job growth tumbled to just 38,000, its lowest level in eight months. Wednesday's reports were the latest signals that economic growth remained sluggish in the second quarter after hitting a weak spot in the first months of the year. "It fits very...

A double-dip in home prices, pessimistic consumers and a slowdown in regional manufacturing raised concerns on Tuesday that the economy's soft patch could become protracted. "The question is, 'Is the softer data we're seeing transitory, or is it likely to persist throughout the remainder of 2011?' Right now, that's an open question that investors are trying to figure out," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.The U.S. economy grew at a tepid 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, and these fresh signs suggest the recovery is still struggling to...

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor turned the policy temperature down on austerity this week by rolling out a strong economic-growth agenda. Headlined by a 25 percent top tax rate for individuals and business, the Cantor package includes regulatory relief, free trade, and patent protection for entrepreneurs. It’s job creation and the economy, stupid. Sounds Reaganesque? Well, Eric Cantor has a lot of Reagan blood in him. Back in 1980, while Cantor was still in high school, his father was the Virginia state treasurer of the Ronald Reagan presidential campaign. So the apple never falls far from the tree. In fact,...

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor turned the policy temperature down on austerity this week by rolling out a strong economic-growth agenda. Headlined by a 25 percent top tax rate for individuals and business, the Cantor package includes regulatory relief, free trade, and patent protection for entrepreneurs. It’s job creation and the economy, stupid. Sounds Reaganesque? Well, Eric Cantor has a lot of Reagan blood in him. Back in 1980, while Cantor was still in high school, his father was the Virginia state treasurer of the Ronald Reagan presidential campaign. So the apple never falls far from the tree. In fact,...

PREPARE FOR THE “FALSE GROWTH SCARE” 26 May 2011 Cullen Roche Danske Bank has a nice piece of research out that provides the other side of the bearish view on all the recent economic data. They actually believe the data in the near-term will continue to be very weak. Specifically, they say the ISM data is likely to mean revert (something I wholeheartedly agree with). But they think it’s incorrect to get overly bearish because of this. In fact, they say it will result in a “false growth scare”: “We believe that we are going to see more signs of...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Economists have become less optimistic about the U.S. growth outlook but slightly more upbeat about the job market, though employment is still seen recovering only slowly from a deep slump. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's second-quarter survey of forecasters showed a median growth forecast of 3.2 percent for the current quarter, down from estimates for a 3.5 percent increase in the poll taken in the first quarter. The U.S. unemployment rate is now forecast at 8.9 percent for the second quarter, down from the previous forecast of 9.2 percent, according to the survey. The jobless rate was still...

As I traveled across Pennsylvania last year, I promised Pennsylvanians that I would dedicate myself to two key priorities in the United States Senate: restoring economic growth and private-sector job creation, and putting our federal government on a sustainable fiscal path. These two goals are inextricably connected. We cannot maximize economic growth without getting our government’s finances in order. And we can’t get our finances in order if we don’t have the courage to make serious and tough choices right now. Today, we are barreling toward a fiscal crisis like a downhill freight train. A few weeks ago, Standard &...

Economics: As the U.S. languishes, Chile posted a head-turning 15.2% yearly gain in GDP in March, and forecasts for the year are rising. Why can't we do that here? A year ago, Chile lay in rubble, victim of the world's fifth most powerful earthquake. So Chile's 15.2% growth is a big bounce from a bad setback. But it shouldn't be dismissed as an anomaly. It's a showy number, but not the only one. The same day Chile released its data, Goldman Sachs raised its 2011 growth forecast for the country to 6.4% from 6%. In its annual regional business index,...

The current economic debate in Washington has focused on how to constrain the federal debt through fiscal policy — that is, finding the right level of spending and taxes. But that discussion is far too limited. While holding down the debt would be a worthy accomplishment, it’s the wrong ultimate goal. The right goal is growth. We should be thinking about better fiscal policy as one means — among many — to increase growth, and we should be thinking about growth itself as the way to have less debt and unemployment and more opportunity and prosperity. Specifically, America’s new economic...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy slowed markedly in the first quarter and inflation accelerated, clear evidence of the double whammy on the economy from higher gasoline prices. In its first estimate Thursday, the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at a 1.8% annual rate between January and March, slower than the 3.1% pace in the prior three months. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a slightly weaker 1.7% growth rate. They blamed the slowdown on weather disruptions and higher gasoline prices, as well as a drop in defense spending. See our economic calendar with forecasts of major indicators....

The Census Bureau last week released county and city populations for the last of the 50 states from the 2010 Census last week, ahead of schedule. Behind the columns of numbers are many vivid stories of how our nation has been changing — and some lessons for public policy, as well. Geographically, our population is moving to the south and west, to the point that the center of the nation’s population has moved to Texas County, Missouri. That sounds like the familiar story of people moving from the Snow Belt to the Sun Belt, but that’s not exactly what’s happening....

North Dakota, the state with the nation's lowest unemployment rate, capped a decade of economic prosperity with dramatic population growth in its biggest cities. North Dakota's low unemployment rate and steady housing market helped towns like Fargo, pictured, grow dramatically. Fargo added nearly 15,000 residents to hit a record population of 105,549, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. Its fast-growing neighbor of West Fargo added an additional 11,000 residents to reach a population of 25,830. Fargo has seen steady growth over the decade — the housing boom missed it — to reach a size that surprised city officials. "Above 100,000? Wow....