I think the most vulnerable of large bases is Ft Knox.
Rock Island arsenal, Sierra Army Depot, should be on the block, and they are both in Blue States.
Leavenworth really has no purpose for existing anymore. They should be rolled into Riley.
Leavenworth is fast becoming the center for Army simulations, and based on the continued screw-ups of STRICOM, the speed of that process should be increased exponentially. There is also talk of the War College relocating here.
I agree with your assessment of Rock Island. One thing that works against RIA is that it is the logisitics support center for armaments. The R&D and project management is at Picatinny. Speculation is that one or the other will move to consolidate. Some even speculate that both will move.
I think Redstone Arsenal near Huntsville, AL will be a big winner gaining maybe 5000 jobs. It's in a low cost area, has plenty of area, is very pro-military, and in a high tech area.
I wouldn't be surprised if Picatinny, Rock Island, and the communications work at Fort Monmouth move to Redstone.
In the last BRAC, the Aviation Command moved to Redstone. This was very successful and demonstrates that Redstone can handle a relocation.