"Their first ballistic missile system is not expected to 2010"
Hugh, I'm not sure where you got that info but it is incorrect...they also have Sunburn supersonic cruise missiles from Russian that have the potential to sink carriers in the Straits. They are making serious attempts to downsize and focus on quality and technology. They have bought Su 30s and other aircraft that are on a par with all of our air inventory save the F-22 Raptor. They are buying the best ships the Russians can buy for a growing blue-water navy too.
In 10-15 years many see them challenging us in the Asian theater.
Have to apologize, I meant to say their first SLBM is not expected to 2010, I was having another conversation with someone on this subject and it was implied in my response they new I was talking about submarine launched missiles.
They do have land launched ballistic missiles the quantity and quality of which are open to debate.
As to the sunburn, they can only be launched by the Hangzhou
Type 956 destroyer which is what they have bought from Russia (it was their Sovremenny class destroyer). They only have 2 of them. They do plan to get another 2 and may get them by 2010. They only carry 8 sunburns. One Arleigh Burke destroyer has 96 VLS launch cells, capable of a wide variety of missiles.
As to the sunburn itself, it is not considered state of the art. It has also never been in combat so it has no record. As a former EW I can tell you it's nothing something that would scare me. Respect it yes, but let it intimidate me, no. For the sake of reference did you see the article posted here about 2 CIWS Phalanx guns brought to Iraq? Same gun as the USN uses for CIWS. It's there because it can hit mortars in flight.
As to the SU-30 our F-15s and F-18s can handle them. Our AMRAAMS and AWACS are second to none. The Chinese by the way have no AWACS. So they will not have any "help" when they try to take us on. They will not have the ability to vector aircraft correctly for maximum benefit. They are also about 15 years behind us in EW.
If I might add -
"In 10-15 years many see them challenging us in the Asian theater."
Where we be by then? Couple hundred F-22s, a 747 laser based system, at least 4 SSGNs, a few hundred JSFs, the
X-45 and X-47 UAVs will be in service. The "Tango Bravo" sub will probably be in business. The THAL will be in use.
The Navy will also have about 40 or so LCS vessels which are perfect for fighting in the PacRim. The USS George Bush will be out there.
And finally the ABM system should be fully up and running.