No! Ha Ha! You're at an obvious disadvantage to assess the true situation as you are without the clarifying prism of American media and the keen insight of leftist American politicians. Oh boy, that's rich...
Posted on 06/22/2005 7:01:38 AM PDT by Valin
Your editor returned to Iraq in April and May of 2005 for another embedded period of reporting. I could immediately see improvements compared to my earlier extended tours during 2003 and 2004. The Iraqi security forces, for example, are vastly more competent, and in some cases quite inspiring. Baghdad is now choked with traffic. Cell phones have spread like wildfire. And satellite TV dishes sprout from even the most humble mud hovels in the countryside.
Many of the soldiers I spent time with during this spring had also been deployed during the initial invasion back in 2003. Almost universally they talked to me about how much change they could see in the country. They noted progress in the attitudes of the people, in the condition of important infrastructure, in security.
I observed many examples of this myself. Take the two very different Baghdad neighborhoods of Haifa Street and Sadr City. The first is an upper-end commercial district in the heart of downtown. The second is one of Baghdad’s worst slums, on the city’s north edge.
I spent lots of time walking both neighborhoods this spring—something that would not have been possible a year earlier, when both were active war zones, where tanks poured shells into buildings on a regular basis. Today, the primary work of our soldiers in each area is rebuilding sewers, paving roads, getting buildings repaired and secured, supplying schools and hospitals, getting trash picked up, managing traffic, and encouraging honest local governance.
What the establishment media covering Iraq have utterly failed to make clear today is this central reality: With the exception of periodic flare-ups in isolated corners, our struggle in Iraq as warfare is over. Egregious acts of terror will continue—in Iraq as in many other parts of the world. But there is now no chance whatever of the U.S. losing this critical guerilla war.
Contrary to the impression given by most newspaper headlines, the United States has won the day in Iraq. In 2004, our military fought fierce battles in Najaf, Fallujah, and Sadr City. Many thousands of terrorists were killed, with comparatively little collateral damage. As examples of the very hardest sorts of urban combat, these will go down in history as smashing U.S. victories.
And our successes at urban combat (which, scandalously, are mostly untold stories in the U.S.) made it crystal clear to both the terrorists and the millions of moderate Iraqis that the insurgents simply cannot win against today’s U.S. Army and Marines. That’s why everyday citizens have surged into politics instead.
The terrorist struggle has hardly ended. Even a very small number of vicious men operating in secret will find opportunities to blow up outdoor markets and public buildings, assassinate prominent political figures, and knock down office towers. But public opinion is not on the insurgents’ side, and the battle of Iraq is no longer one of war fighting—but of policing and politics.
Policing and political problem-solving are mostly tasks for Iraqis, not Americans. And the Iraqis are taking them up, often with gusto. I saw much evidence that responsible Iraqis are gradually isolating the small but dangerously nihilistic minority trying to strangle their new society. With each passing month, U.S. forces will more and more become a kind of SWAT team that intervenes only to multiply the force of the emerging Iraqi security forces, and otherwise stays mostly in the background.
Increasingly, the Iraqi people are taking direction of their own lives. And like all other self-ruling populations, they are more interested in improving the quality of their lives than in mindless warring. It will take some time, but Iraq has begun the process of becoming a normal country.
Karl Zinsmeister is the Editor-in-Chief of The American Enterprise.
But if any of the doom and gloomers are reading this, it might brighten their day. ;-)
No! Ha Ha! You're at an obvious disadvantage to assess the true situation as you are without the clarifying prism of American media and the keen insight of leftist American politicians. Oh boy, that's rich...
From CNN Money (below):
http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/10/pf/expert/ask_expert/
Stupid currency tricks: Iraqi dinar
Q: I'm considering buying Iraqi currency as an investment. Is that a good idea?
August 10, 2004: 10:13 AM EDT
By Walter Updegrave, CNN/Money contributing columnistNEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
I'm considering buying Iraqi currency as an investment. Is that a good idea? — Ray Hammond, Dayton, Texas
Judging by the number of pitches I see from Web sites flogging the new Iraqi currency, not to mention dozens of people on eBay, there are at least some people out there who think investing in the Iraqi dinar that was introduced last October makes sense.
My take is unequivocal. Given the difficulty of predicting currency movements, I'm not even a big proponent of investing in established currencies like the euro or the yen.
And when it comes to buying and selling the fledgling currency of a fledgling government in one of the most chaotic parts of the world, that goes beyond mere speculation. I'd call it gambling.
The main argument for buying the dinar, of course, is that Iraq has vast oil and natural gas reserves at a time when energy prices are climbing. If the country gets its political act together, it could profit in a big way.
I hope things work out that way, but it's a big, big if.
And even if it does, there's no guarantee it will be able to run an economy that keeps inflation -- a major risk for currency values -- under control.
Of course, where there's great risk and uncertainty, there's also the potential for great reward. But I'd be wary of some of the information out there.
One site I visited had a chart showing the historical value of the dinar from 1932 through 1982 fluctuating between just under $5 and just under $3 per dinar. Gee, the dinar is now worth only $0.0007. Could you imagine if it made it back anywhere close to its historical range? Why you'd make a killing! Even if the dinar climbed in value to just one cent, that would represent a 1,329% return!!! Surely, it can go up at least a penny.
Really? If that's a sane rationale for investing in a currency, then why not buy the Turkish lira, which trades at $0.0000007?
Fact is, it's the economic prospects for a country that determine the future value of its currency, not the price it trades at now or the price it traded at in the past. And no matter how low a value a currency reaches, it can always go lower.
One final thing to consider if you're still thinking about investing in dinars is liquidity.
At this point, there's not a particularly organized market for them. You can get an exchange quote for dinars by going to the currency section of Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance, but the rate you'll pay varies substantially from one seller to the next.
As for selling any dinars you buy, good luck.
Frank Trotter, an executive with Everbank, the online bank that offers small investors savings and money-market accounts denominated in a variety of foreign currencies (but not Iraqi dinars) told me that his trading desk surveyed several of the online dealers posing as someone who owned dinars and wanted to sell them.
"We received no bids," said Trotter. "We haven't seen a legitimate market in terms of trading it."
That could change, of course, but probably only if the political and economic situation stabilizes. So if you want to sell dinars, for now you're pretty much relegated to eBay.
My view is that if you want to spend a few bucks to acquire Iraqi dinar as a novelty item or you want to gamble with money you can well afford to lose, that's fine. Enjoy yourself. But you shouldn't even think of making something this iffy a part of your investment portfolio.
Walter Updegrave is a senior editor at MONEY Magazine and is the author of "We're Not in Kansas Anymore: Strategies for Retiring Rich in a Totally Changed World."
One of my favorite things is to read Michael Yon's website to read how things really are over there. A few weeks ago I enjoyed reading about a town that is very peaceful and people are starting to enjoy their new freedom. I read his blog to my children. They still want a soldier pen pal, though. LOL!
LMAO.
He is correct in what he says for the most part. However, I am speculating, not investing. Besides, he's from CNN so his mind is tainted.
Ha Ha, good point. BTW, I'm just curious, how do you respond to this:
One site I visited had a chart showing the historical value of the dinar from 1932 through 1982 fluctuating between just under $5 and just under $3 per dinar. Gee, the dinar is now worth only $0.0007. Could you imagine if it made it back anywhere close to its historical range? Why you'd make a killing! Even if the dinar climbed in value to just one cent, that would represent a 1,329% return!!! Surely, it can go up at least a penny.
Really? If that's a sane rationale for investing in a currency, then why not buy the Turkish lira, which trades at $0.0000007?
I don't know, perhaps you do speculate in all kinds of currency. Like I said, just curious. My bro-in-law is stationed in Bahrain and sent me an e-mail with the dinar opportunity a while back...
He probably has dinars stashed in drawers, knowing full well that gambling at these prices is more akin to cheap thrills in Las Vegas, with a greater likelihood of breaking even or of making money.
Of course, if he's from CNN, it may seem too patriotic to endorse speculation on Iraq's currency. I mean, that would mean Americans would be betting on Iraq's prosperous future.
Isn't this fellow the author of 'Boots on the Ground' - the story of the Battle of Bagdad? Great read, and he's a great interview, too.
Turkey is a relatively stable country compared to new Iraq, nothing to speculate on.
New Iraq is a unique situation, and I am betting that in 5 or 10 years it will be a stable country with a strong economy and the currency that I bought under the worst possible conditions will be worth more than I paid for it.
Worst case is I lose the money I paid, no more. I think it is a smart bet. He is entitled to think what he wants. Time will tell.
That is exactly what I am betting on - no more, no less.
Iraqi dinar will be a freely traded currency sooner or later. I'm a patient man :)
That's the guy.
Great, Thanks!
No they're not. New recruits are signing up every day.
Stop believing everything the media tells you.
I agree. These pompous economists are usually professors. I always wonder why, if they're such financial geniuses, aren't making the big bucks on Wall Street?
Look at what happened to the Kuwaiti dinar between 1990 (Saddam's invasion) and 1993. It paid QUITE a return for those who invested in it.
Yes, I got that post about a week or so ago. It generated one of the biggest laughs I've ever had on FR and I've laughed a lot at things on here.
I love your laugh graphic. ;-)
Ted Kennedy is so WRONG!
This article referenced by Belmont Club today.
Will need to scroll down....
Yes, he's just a big, fat sloppy drunk and why anybody would take him seriously is beyond me.
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