Posted on 07/23/2005 5:52:12 AM PDT by Semper Paratus
The world could at any time be faced with a massive flu outbreak like those in 1918 or 1968 that killed tens of millions of people, the World Health Organization warned, urging countries to be prepared.
"History has told us that no one can stop a pandemic. The question is: when is it going to happen?" WHO spokeswoman Margaret Chan told reporters.
"I don't think anybody has the answer to it. We have to be on the lookout for any time, any day," she added.
Deadly avian influenza, which has killed 55 people in Asia since resurfacing in 2003, has the potential to become a major human pandemic if the virus were to mutate and allow human-to-human transmission, Chan said.
The HN51 strain of bird flu, which has killed hundreds of thousands of birds, constitutes one of several "warnings from nature" -- the first since 1968, according to Chan, Hong Kong's director of health from 1994 to 2003.
"We collectively, particularly national authorities, have to take a very conscientious decision: if you are given early signals and if you are not prepared, you have a very difficult case to answer if indeed it happens," she said.
"Our experience is that if you are prepared for a pandemic, you get less impact in terms of mortality, morbidity, social and economic disruption."
Chan admitted that preparation for a possible flu pandemic could divert resources from other health emergencies like the fight against AIDS or polio, but said such measures would improve the tracking of life-threatening diseases.
After Indonesia earlier this week announced its first human deaths from bird flu, and cases were reported in Siberian poultry, Chan warned that "the scope is getting wider and wider".
The WHO's greatest fear is that human influenza and bird flu could somehow combine to unleash a pandemic on the world.
"With winter coming, we need to enhance our vigilance," she said.
She reminded countries struck by bird flu to limit contact between humans and live poultry, as well as contact between different species in live markets.
Such rules were implemented in Hong Kong when bird flu first appeared in 1997, and no cases -- either in animals or humans -- have been reported there since, Chan added.
The expert said the Geneva-based WHO was still awaiting samples taken from migratory birds in China, 6,000 of which have died in Qinghai province since May.
Chinese researchers believe the strain afflicting their birds could be even more deadly than the HN51 strain.
"We have impressed upon them the importance of sharing these specimens. We will not give up our effort: we owe it to the world, it's a global health security issue," Chan told reporters.
I loved the WHO. Greatest band ever. Especially when they flew through time in that phone booth.
This warning is nothing to sneeze at!
We are important, really important, send us lots of funding and we will protect you from the flu. Remember we are right, be afraid, and send lots of money to us.
ping
I think you summed that up quite nicely.
This whole thing kinda reminds me of West Nile Virus, and Mad Cow Disease. Yes, if there is a virus killing animals it does have the potential to kill people but only 50 people have died in the last year (if i read that correctly). On the other side of the coin perhaps the animal kingdom is just on the verge of an aids outbreak within the various species due to the massive human population that is infected with aids in africa.
Is it time for someone to say "survival of the fittest"??
Basically terrorists without the nerve to do their own bombings, in other words.
More like professional worriers who want to recognized and paid handsomely.
So could globas warming.
WHO is asking for more money. Anytime they run low on funds that threatens their lifestyle, they create a health scare.
Hey WHO, get a real job like the rest of us.
I love it when they throw out lines like 6,000 birds have died already. Who counted those birds? Did they autopsy them? Just more scare mongering IMHO.
If this thing has legs, I'd short the Yuan.
Really? Just how many pandemic's has the WHO prevented thus far? I dare suggest: NONE! While it's POSSIBLE that a pandemic can break out, We also know how to prevent it from speading. Whether we are willing to implement those actions are another thing. Those that ignore the rick factors will be more likely to become victims, while those that guard themselves will be less likely to become victims. I doubt we will ever see the numbers we did before we became more aware of how disease is transmitted. At least in the western world among those who live a normal lifestyle, not taking foolish risks. The Turd world? Oh well. Nature has it's ways.
It smells like extortion to me.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1448760/posts
That thread has a report from Recombinomics.com citing translated reports from China. Apparently, there is an outbreak of new human infections of the H5N1 virus in the western provinces. Scientists are convinced that the Bird Flu may have reached "Stage 6" in both China and Vietnam.
The Avian Flu may have also spread to Russia and rumors have reported it may be killing migratory geese and other water fowl.
Here is some Helpful Information to Underdstand this Article:
Pandemic Information (Including Stages)
Brief Excerpt:
Phase 5: Larger clusters (infections confirmed by scientific tests) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible. * * *
In other words, "substantial pandemic risk."
Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.
Time Line on Development of Avian Flu
Pandemic period
Brief Excerpt from Report dated June 20, 2005:
The pandemic moved to phase 5 at the beginning of 2005. There were reported outbreaks in birds in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. The reported human cases were limited to Vietnam and Cambodia. However, the demographics began to change within Vietnam. The southern cases had a case fatality rate approaching 100%, while the fatality rate in northern Vietnam fell to 10-20%. The cases in the north also covered a wider age range and the clusters grew larger. Transmission extended to health care workers and five members of a single family tested positive for H5N1, but all recovered.
The large number of reported human cases in Qinghai and the isolation of health care workers in Tacheng would signal phase 6, if confirmed. It is likely that the H5N1 would be carried to Kazakhstan and Russia by the migrating birds, although there have not been reports of H5N1 in the neighboring countries.
Thus, at this time it looks like H5N1 is moving from phase 5 to phase 6 in northern Vietnam, and may be doing the same in western China, if reports of human fatalities are accurate.
WHO warns a massive flu outbreak could happen at any moment
I dunno, who warns?
WHO
Dat's what I'm trying to find out.
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