Posted on 07/24/2005 9:47:52 AM PDT by Mister Sophisticate
Departure likely to block Democrats' shot at district
Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham's announcement that he will not run for re-election next year did nothing to lift the spreading ethical cloud hanging over him, but it lifted a cloud of political angst over the Republican Party and touched off an instant scramble among ambitious Republicans.
The Rancho Santa Fe Republican is under investigation by a federal grand jury, the FBI and the U.S. Attorney's Office in Washington over his financial ties to defense contractor Mitchell Wade.
In announcing July 14 that he would not seek a ninth term, Cunningham, 63, maintained he is innocent but acknowledged that the investigations made a re-election campaign untenable.
"For Republicans, retirement spells relief," said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a one-time Republican congressional aide. "Had Cunningham stayed in the race, this would have been an unexpected target for the Democrats."
Cunningham's announcement put a host of San Diego and North County Republicans on a political collision course.
Escondido Mayor Lori Holt Pfeiler attended Cunningham's announcement at California State University San Marcos to lend moral support, and she declared her interest in succeeding him on the spot.
State Sen. Bill Morrow of Oceanside did likewise a couple of hours later.
Former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian of Carlsbad, who was visiting U.S. service personnel in Iraq, notified reporters by fax July 15 – the day after Cunningham's announcement – that he intended to run for the 50th District seat.
Three other Republicans – Assemblyman Mark Wyland of Del Mar, Assemblyman George Plescia of San Diego and county Supervisor Pam Slater-Price – all said they were seriously looking at the race. County Treasurer-Tax Collector Dan McAllister, who was regarded as a potential Republican contender for the seat, said he will run for re-election next year.
Cunningham's congressional career has been marked by erratic behavior and ill-considered remarks, but also growing influence as he has gained seniority on the House defense appropriations subcommittee.
That influence contributed greatly to the shroud of suspicion surrounding his dealings with Wade, founder of MZM Inc. Before 2002, Wade's company had never done business with the federal government. Since then, it has received $163 million in federal contracts with Cunningham's support.
Last month, an article in The San Diego Union-Tribune revealed that Wade bought Cunningham's Del Mar home in 2003 and sold it nine months later at a $700,000 loss.
When in Washington, Cunningham lived aboard Wade's yacht, called the Duke-Stir.
Three weeks ago, federal agents searched Cunningham's Rancho Santa Fe home and Wade's yacht and office in Washington.
Cunningham's defenders maintained he could have survived his troubles – a theory most Republicans would rather not have to test.
The 50th District, which stretches from northern San Diego to Escondido and San Marcos and then along the coast from Carlsbad to Del Mar, is 45 percent Republican and 30 percent Democratic in voter registration.
The numbers mean a Democrat stands little chance except under extraordinary circumstances, which Cunningham might well have provided had he hung in and ran.
"There will be a great Republican sigh of relief," said political scientist Gary Jacobson, who studies Congress at the University of California San Diego. "They can fight over the Republican nomination, and whoever gets it will be the odds-on favorite. If I were the Democrats, I'd be unhappy."
Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2006 elections. But the 2001 reapportionment resulted in more congressional districts than ever before that heavily favor one party or the other, making a double-digit shift from one party to another difficult.
"Like every seat in California, it's stacked to one side," said Pitney at Claremont McKenna. "If Democrats want to take control, they have to pick some high-hanging fruit."
Democrat Francine Busby, a member of the Cardiff school board, spent $200,000 in a campaign against Cunningham last year. Although Cunningham was one of only two California House members running for re-election to be held to less than 60 percent of the vote last year, he still defeated Busby by 22 percentage points.
When Cunningham's troubles surfaced, House Democratic campaign strategists said they intended to make the 50th District a top priority. Whether they still intend to – or in fact ever intended to – is unclear.
Busby has been actively campaigning for 2006 for months and is demanding that Cunningham resign immediately.
"She's a perfectly respectable candidate," UCSD's Jacobson said of Busby. "She's just in the wrong district."
Ron Nehring, chairman of the Republican Party of San Diego County, said the 50th District seat has never been in danger of going Democratic.
"My level of concern about losing this seat before the announcement was zero and it remains zero," Nehring said.
Jacobson made the same point with a slightly different spin.
"If there's enough baggage for a Democrat to take this seat, there's enough baggage for a Republican to take it away from him," he said.
Before Cunningham's announcement, rumors swirled that he was going to resign.
Had Cunningham resigned, a special election would have been needed later this year. That likely would have opened the floodgates for Republican elected officials throughout the district because no one would have had to give up a job to run.
With the 50th District seat being contested in the normal 2006 election cycle, some prospective candidates are going to have critical career decisions to make.
Morrow is barred from seeking re-election to the state Senate because of term limits. Slater-Price was re-elected to the Board of Supervisors last year and will be in the middle of her four-year term.
For Assembly members Wyland and Plescia, the calculation is more complicated because both would put their careers at risk by running.
Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, which analyzes state political campaigns, said running for Congress is a crapshoot for legislators in safe districts, but one worth taking because there are no congressional term limits.
"It is a solid Republican district and the one who wins the primary has the seat as long as he or she wants it, barring political scandal," Hoffenblum said. "That is something state legislators do not have, which makes it so tempting."
Wyland, who is completing his third term in the Assembly, appears to have a clear shot at winning Morrow's Senate seat, but he apparently is shifting his focus to the Cunningham seat.
"He's looking at the seat right now and making a determination," Chief of Staff Duane Dichiara said.
Plescia has more options. He can serve one more term in the Assembly and could run for the Senate if Wyland runs for Congress. But he, too, is focusing on Congress.
"Now that (Cunningham) is moving on, Assemblyman Plescia would certainly consider running for the seat," spokesman Brandon Waters said, "but he has yet to make an official announcement."
Geezus talk about a free for all. how the hell do so many people expect to raise money. I suspect some rich buisunessman will step in and take the seat if he can outspend the rest of his opponents who will be strapped for cash most likely.
i like kaloogian.
when he was in the california assembly i mailed him a map of mexicans crossing the border into the u.s. only this map was of the mexican claim to the u.s., so the mexicans were crossing into the northern u.s states looking for work.
the point was that even if mexico controlled their claim, it would impoverished.
he thought the map was funny! and wrote me a letter saying that he'd forwarded it to u.s. senator barbara boxer.
Don't count on it.
Everyone and their mamma and aunt tilli knew the Duke wasn't going to be around, most folks thought he would quit (or be indicted).
These folks have already got the financing needed in place and the organizations set up and ready to roll.
All anyone wanted was just the official annoucement, either way, he was probably going to get a primary challenge in the extreme unlikely event he didn't call it quits or declared he was going to run again.
I hope he is really enjoying his little boat.
So are Senator Bill Morrow, Assemblyman Mark Wyland, and Assemblyman George Plescia. It's not an easy choice.
Well even so, duke came in and won as an outsider because he spent alot of his own money and same for Issa whose the district right next door. I mean sure some of these guys might raise 100-200k but if some millionare comes along and dumps 2 million on the primary good chance he can take it as in primaries its usually the one who spends the most who wins becaus ultimately it gets that persons name out there to the primary voters.
I believe it's pronounced "File -er" or a close approximation thereof.
Yup, that's true. But I've worked for Howard in the past, I know his legislative record, and I'm more than willing to overlook those flashy ties he sometimes favors. Howard is da man to watch in CA's 50th.
I've worked with all four of them in the Legislature. I have my opinions on things like personality, style and intellect, but for now I will just say all four of them are good conservatives. Any one of them would make a Congressman that most Freepers would be happy with.
My concern right now is that there is one liberal GOP woman running who will capture the RINO vote, and four conservatives to split the sane vote.
Yea, i like wyland because of his work on illegal immigration, but the problem is alot of these del mar busuinessmen who hire tons of illegals will bankroll his primary opposition(i think wyland is independently wealthy) since wyland probably opposes their hiring of illegals.
Senator Bill Morrow, Assemblyman Mark Wyland, and Assemblyman George Plescia all sold out the conservatives in San Diego when they forced the endorsement of Steve Francis. Francis is a rich RINO. There is going to hell to pay because of this endorsement.
Wyland is the biggest RINO on the earth. He started Saveourlicense.com and then uses it to raise money for his consultants. Wonder why we never get anything done on immigration. His chief of staff is a expert at dirty campaigns against Republicans.
Morrow is a nut. He ran against ISSA for Congress and he made charges saying he was connect to terrorists.
Plescia is a puppet. He does what he is told to do.
Mayor Lori Holt Pfeiler backed (she did TV Commercials) Democrat Councilman Peters in his last run for the San Diego City Council. With republicans like her you don't need democrats.
Now that you know what is going on what do you think?
Thank you for that Republican-bashing screed.
What do I think? I think we'll never really know what's going on in your head. You sound like a wild-eyed ranting loon. Sounds to me like you are clawing for relevancy, or grinding some kind of ax. Did you or your Daddy run for office and these guys ignored you?
All three are good conservatives that I have had the pleasure of working with over the years. They all have perfect or near-perfect ratings from the NRA, Gun Owners of California, California ProLife Council, Howard Jarvis TaxPayers Association, etc. etc.
There are few enough elected conservative Republicans in this state. There simply isn't time or reason to go around bashing the good ones that we have. Grow up.
assume away
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.