U.S. Loses Key Base in Central Asia

Karshi-Khanabad air base in south-eastern Uzbekistan, which the US has been given six months to leave, has played a key role in supporting US operations in Afghanistan since 2001. Its location in a secure area, a short journey from the border with Afghanistan, makes it an ideal logistical centre outside the field of military operations.

Known by US troops as K2, it is used as a landing base for humanitarian goods, which are then taken by road into often inaccessible areas of northern Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan's authoritarian President, Islam Karimov, initially courted Washington as a counter-balance to the traditional regional power, Russia.

But relations have plummeted since the Andijan killings in May, when Uzbek troops fired into crowds of demonstrators to crush an anti-government protest.

The Uzbek authorities restricted flights into Karshi-Khanabad after the US backed calls for an independent inquiry into the incident, described as a "massacre" by aid agency Human Rights Watch.

The eviction notice from the Uzbek government came days before a senior US official was to travel to Tashkent for talks about Andijan, human rights and political reform, according to The New York Times.

"To say that the US leadership and the Uzbek leadership don't see eye-to-eye with one another today is an understatement," Martha Brill Olcott, a Central Asian expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the US press.

The US has one other base in the region, in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, but it has no road access to Afghanistan.

During a trip to Kyrgyzstan earlier this week, Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld shrugged off suggestions that US operations would be hurt if the Uzbek government denied them use of K2.

Fiona Hill, a Russia expert with the Brookings institute in Washington, told the BBC that the US military would have prepared for this.

"Even before the events in Andijan, there was a great deal of discussion... about the fact that Uzbekistan was increasingly a strategic liability rather than an asset," she said.

However, the base's closure - and the loss of the jobs and money it brings to the area - would be another blow to the struggling Uzbek economy, a major source of simmering discontent in an increasingly unstable country, says the BBC's Ian MacWilliam.

The Islamist forces that attacked Uzbekistan after the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan were led by Qari Saifullah Akhtar. Akhtar was educated at the Banuri mosque outside of Karachi which has been much in the news lately. He became head of the Harkat al-Jahad al-Islami movement, and helped the Taliban seize power, and served as an advisor to Mullah Omar. Akhtar's men then served as the spearhead for the aborted invasion of Uzbekistan, an invasion that was supported by Al Qaeda. Later, it was thanks to the US and its presence in Uzbekistan after 9/11 that the country was somewhat stabilized. It was also thanks to the US that Akhtar was traced to the United Arab Emirates; arrested in Dubai in October 2004, he was returned to Pakistan where he was jailed.

Thus it would seem that Uzbekistan seems ungrateful for the US effort. However, the nation itself has joined with Russia, China, and the other "stans" to form an anti-terrorist alliance directed at the region's Islamists. That it has chosen a path separate from the US probably did not surprise anyone with knowledge of the region and its politics.

Killing His Last Chance

Uzbek President Islam Karimov demanded from the USA to remove its military base from Khanabad. By doing so, Karimov not only lost hundreds of millions of dollars that Americans were paying for the base usage, but he killed his last chance to stay in power.

In the end of 2001 Karimov made a right move and gave a permission to set up the US military base on Uzbek territory. This move guaranteed Uzbek president his unlimited stay at the power. In exchange for his loyalty to Washington, Karimov was not only getting American financial help and support, but he also could rely on Washington’s promise not to shake up his regime.

This scheme, which suspiciously looked like a deal, worked fine until recently. The troubles appeared in last several months. The alarm signals started to come to Karimov one after another. First, Americans did not make a move to help Askar Akakev to hold the power in Kyrgyzia. Akaev, by the way, also gave US permission for a military base. After the massacre in Andijan Washington put the full blame on Uzbek authorities. And that, of course, meant Islam Karimov before of all. The warning of the analysts about a new US goal to replace Central Asian regimes started to come true. Akaev was able to transfer himself quietly in category of political retirees. Karimiov would not be able to do the same after Andijan.

Uzbek President made his choice. He challenged US and practically gave his political fate (and not only political one) into the Moscow’s hands.

The US will balance the Khadabad loss with increased presence in Kyrgyzia and Tajikistan. The agreement with both heads of states was already made. However, Karimov risks of loosing a lot if not everything.

One doesn’t have to be Central Asian expert to predict: the US will put all its efforts to replace current Uzbek president and to bring him to the court. Thus, Karimov’s fate looks pretty gloomy.

And even Moscow will not able to help him. The Kremlin, of course will try to block all possible sanctions against Karimov’s regime. However, it is doubtful that Moscow would be able to stop from coming a velvet revolution and replacement of today’s government.

In decisive moment, when Kremlin will be facing choice –either confrontation with the US or Karimov’s defense at any cost- it looks like that Uzbek president will end up on the losing side.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.