German conservatives, partner back over 50 pct-poll (Election on September 18th)

BERLIN, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Germany's conservative opposition and their likely Free Democrat coalition partners have rebounded from a recent poll slump and are once again on track to win a majority in a Sept. 18 federal election, a survey showed on Friday.

An Electoral Research Group (FGW) poll for ZDF television found the CDU and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, would win 43 percent -- up one point from a week ago.

The FDP were steady at eight percent in the Politbarometer poll, giving a CDU/CSU and FDP alliance a total of 51 percent. The coalition that ruled from 1982 to 1998 had slipped several points below 50 percent in a number of August polls.

The Politbarometer poll found Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) would win 29 percent, unchanged from last week, while their Greens coalition partners were also steady, at nine percent. The Left party slipped one point to eight percent.

The CDU/CSU were hurt in recent weeks by blunders from their chancellor candidate Angela Merkel, who confused gross and net wages in two interviews, and controversies over remarks by other conservatives that offended some east Germans.

RockinRight wrote:

"Are the Germans starting to "get it?""

That remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure: Interesting time lie ahead of us. Angela Merkels choice of Paul Kirchhof, who although no member always had strong ties to the FDP (Free Democrats) also shows that Merkel intends to push through with the "great tax reform" more or less along the lines that already the FDP proposed. Whether in the end this will be a flat-tax model with a maximum tax of 25% or whether there will still be a distinction between business taxes (15%, 25%) and income taxes (15%, 25%, 35%) is still up in the air.

However, Merkel has so far managed to marginalize Stoiber, and Merkels supporters in the CDU already call for Stoiber to remain in Bavaria (after all, Juergen Ruettgers of Northrhine-Westfalia is just as important a state governor (prime minister here in Germany) as Stoiber of Bavaria). Stoiber and his CSU, which is somewhat more to the left in economic matters, would be a major internal obstacle for Merkels reforms.

Also the German public is completely weary of Schroeder's maneuverings, Schroeders stance on Iran has been greeted with universal indifference so far. There is much more discussion about for example how tired Schroeder looked in a TV interview yesterday and his ominous last answer to the question "What will you do on September 19th?", which was "I will be happy!". Most commentators agree that Schroeder meant: "I will be happy because it's over!".

If Stoiber simply shuts up, and Merkel toss Schroeder during this one debate (which is expected)...then the 51 percent point will be easily made. And the weak point for the SPD...is that the new Left party will likely take 18 percent of the vote in the end, and this will really chew up the situation for the next 6-8 years. The sad part is that nothing will likely change in terms of the economic situation. Germans have to solve the tax situation and thats practically impossible. I'm sitting here...paying almost 52 percent of my entire salary here in Germany...to some form of taxation. By the time you get to the 16 percent tax, the $6 a gallon cost with taxes included, the tv tax, and the income tax...it starts to become a joke. Everyone is buying cheap or doing repairs themselves...cutting out any potential infusion of money into the economy. And towns keep building more and more infrastructure...which simply adds onto more cost in the outlying years. This merry-go-round...can only go in a circle...and its going slower and slower.

"...is that the new Left party will likely take 18 percent of the vote in the end, and this will really chew up the situation for the next 6-8 years."

In this case, I think you vastly overestimate the "Linkspartei" (left party). IMHO, they won't get more than maybe 8% in the end, because by September 18th the media frenzy around Lafontaine and Gysi will have completely died. And I'm pretty sure that after the elections tensions in the Left party will begin to grow. Lafontaine has managed to wreck every party over which he presided, why should it be different with the PDS?

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