Posted on 08/19/2005 6:48:25 PM PDT by Termite_Commander
Health experts claim bird flu is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. Initially, it was seen as a few isolated cases in South-East Asia, may now be the beginnings of a global pandemic. The virus is spreading rapidly and has already reached as far as Russia. The World Health Organisation too has warned of the possibilities of a worldwide avian influenza outbreak. With no vaccine ready for commercial use, countries across the world have started stockpiling what limited drugs are available.
The world first heard of bird flu when it hit Hong Kong in 1997. The H5N1 strain of the virus caused severe respiratory problems for 18 people of which an alarming one-third died. Rapid destruction of Hong Kong’s entire poultry population reduced the chances of further direct transmission to humans and a possible epidemic. February 2003 saw 2 more cases of H5N1 avian influenza, which resulted in one death. But it was really the outbreak that came later that year which has culminated in the state of affairs today. Between December 2003 and now, more than a hundred human cases of bird flu have been reported across four countries in Asia - Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand - the last two being among the worst hit. Fatalities have occurred in over half the infected patients. The total number of human infections seems insignificant given the time period. However, it is a series of factors related to these outbreaks that is causing concern. To date, there has been no evidence of human-to-human transmission - a development that could very quickly give rise to a pandemic.
However, many experts have expressed a fear that it may only be a matter of time before the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu combines with the human influenza virus and mutates into a form that can be transmitted among people. And the H5N1 variety has already demonstrated a propensity to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animals like pigs.
Furthermore, despite the low level of human fatalities, tens of thousands of fowl have been infected. In most cases this has resulted in the relevant governments culling millions of birds to control the spread of the disease. Unfortunately, in some instances action was either delayed or not taken at all.
At the end of June this year, more than two hundred migratory geese tested positive for the H5N1 strain in Qinhai Lake in North Western China. But Beijing did not cull the infected birds claiming they were a rare and protected species and vaccinated them instead. However, birds that survive the infection excrete the virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faces, facilitating its further propagation. No more cases of bird flu have been reported in China since. But given the country’s track record, in particular its cover-up of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), it is plausible that the true extent of the problem has been kept under wraps - a potentially explosive situation.
In the following six weeks, fowl in Siberia, Kazakhstan, Tibet, and Mongolia tested positive for avian influenza. Migratory birds, possibly from China, are being cited as the culprit. But the outbreak has been steadily moving westwards. Most recently it struck Chelyabinksk a major industrial region in the Ural Mountains in Russia, which separate the European and Asian parts of the country.
These birds in Russia will soon leave to winter in warmer climates which will expose the Middle East, Africa, Australia, the West Coast of the US and of course India to the threat of bird flu. So far, human casualties have been limited both in terms of numbers and geographic scope.
But a broad geographical distribution of H5N1 increases the likelihood of dual infections leading to recombination that can produce a pandemic version of the virus that can be transmitted from human-to-human.
The situation is further complicated by the absence of a commercially viable avian influenza vaccine for humans. Currently, the only known treatment is the flu drug oseltamivir which Roche produces under the name Tamiflu. This can protect against infection but not treat those who are sick.
The fact that several Western countries have started stockpiling the drug is testament to the fact that the world is taking the threat seriously. The US has enough Tamiflu to treat 2.3 million people and is working to acquire more. Britain, France, Finland and Norway are placing orders that would cover up to 40% of their populations. The World Health Organisation is in talks to build a reserve of drugs for poorer countries.
Epidemiologists predict a flu pandemic will emerge three or four times every hundred years. Two of the last three global pandemics have originated in Asia. Outbreaks of the Asian flu in 1957-58 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968-69 killed over a million people. Spanish flu killed 40 million people world wide in 1918-1919.
Time to close off the borders--to birds.
I think we've come a long way since 1918.....in cleanliness, hygiene, prevention, etc......
Time to close off the borders to Asians!
Scary. A pandemic or global epidemic is an outbreak of an infectious disease that affects
people or animals over an extensive geographical area.
Influenza that caused several waves of pandemic in 1918–1919, resulting in ...
Medical definition of Spanish flu
More and more epidemics...pandemics...whatever--scares the heck out of this girl!
According to someone interviewed on CNN just about a half hour ago, they have come up with a vaccine that appears, at first glance, to work. The only problem is that so much of it is required to protect an individual that the entire amount being delivered to the US government will only protect a few hundred thousand people.
(This doctor was discussing both vaccines and treatments, so I might be confusing the vaccine with the treatment. I'll have to wait until the Newsnight transcript is posted tomorrow morning to be sure.)
a little factoid here. During the Spanish Flu Pandemic,Two questions:
1) What were health/hygiene practices like back then?
2) What are the health/hygiene practices like in South-East Asia?
Okay.....guess it's another reason for my hubbie and I to take off for the hinterlands......away from the big cities, which, I'm sure will be hardest hit. And, I'm not one of those who likes to get shot up with the latest virus du jour.....I'm still not convinced the flu shot pushed on people every year really helps....having a STRONG immune system, however, would seem to help in ANY situation like this.
Hmmmm.....sounds like Muslims would be hit hardest.....
That is the info I just received for in a newsletter I've been getting the past 10 years from a homeopathic doctor,(DR. David Williams).Here is an excerpt:
Protection from this form of flu boils down to having a healthy immune system and using such supplements as vitamin C and selenium and essential oils(tea tree and eucalyptus) in vaporizers.
I believe more info can be found at his web-site (drdavidwilliams.com)
Here's a link all of you might be interested in perusing:
Avian Flu Preparedness Project
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1453571/posts
Lots of ideas there about flu prevention and related topics.
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