Posted on 08/24/2005 6:20:56 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The twelfth tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season is named Katrina. The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
TD 12 Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I'll be trying to get home Friday night. That should be an adventure.
That GFS model track showing it bouncing off and following the FL coast to the north for a bit must have EOC's up and down the coast pulling out their hair waiting to see if a snap evac order must be given. I sense enough hurricane fatigue around here (Brevard) to guess that many will stay put for a "mere" category 1.
Down here they have the MTV crowd all over the news talking about how they will party through the hurricane. Can't wait to see them in 48 hours.
Many years ago another bunch of partiers decided to party thru a storm too. Remember?
If this girl stalls over the party, dumping rain on the MTVers for a couple of days, they may get cranky.
The EOCs have a tough job, especially in situations like this. It seems much easier to call the evacs when it is clearly a major storm.
...Katrina heading westward for South Florida...hurricane warnings in effect...
at 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Southeast Florida coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
I'm in Ft Lauderdale, it's headed straight for me....AHHHHH!
aka--they don't have a clue where this storm is headed...
This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future model runs.
Would you please add me to the hurricane ping list.
During Charlie Tom Terry (WFTV IN ORLANDO) was the first to say the storm would turn right where it did. He had "X"'s marking the center and was able to see any wobbles or changes early on. Who knows where this one will make its turn, but all should be ready.
The scary thing is the intensity forecast with a few of the models which have this blowing up to a Kitten 3 storm before landfall. Also,the UKMET and GFS have this criss crossing back from the gulf over north central fla on monday.
About 50 of my students are part of the MTV cast. Wonder how that's gonna pan out!
On the plus side, I just took the dogs for a walk and it is the most pleasant morning we have had in months. There's a nice breeze and I agree with what was said upthread, the humidity has been sucked out of the air.
This "mild at best" thunderstorm will certainly drop some rain on the southeast, but I am more concerned about how Katrina will affect the price of gas. If it goes out over the Gulf a bit, you KNOW the price will jump 25 cents a gallon due to "oil well disruptions".
...Katrina slowly getting better organized as it moves westward toward southeastern Florida...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Southeast Florida coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the east-central Florida coast from north of Vero Beach northward to Titusville ...Including all of Merritt Island...and for the middle and upper Florida Keys from the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge northward to south of Florida City. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for the Florida West Coast from Florida City to Englewood...including Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 6 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Katrina was located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 79.0 west or about 30 miles... 45 km...south-southwest of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and about 70 miles... 115 km...east of ft. Lauderdale Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hour. This motion should bring the center into the Florida Straits today...and near or over the southeastern Florida coast later tonight or Friday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible today and tonight... and Katrina could reach category one hurricane strength before the center reaches the southeastern coast of Florida.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km from the center. An automated observing station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph with a gust to 50 mph...and Freeport on Grand Bahama Island also reported sustained winds of 43 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.
Due to its slow forward speed...Katrina is expected to produce a significant heavy rainfall event over the northwest Bahamas...and South Florida... with total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...26.2 N... 79.0 W. Movement toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 7a
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 25, 2005
...Katrina slowly getting better organized as it moves westward
toward southeastern Florida...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Southeast Florida
coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northwest
Bahamas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the east-central
Florida coast from north of Vero Beach northward to Titusville
...Including all of Merritt Island...and for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge northward to
south of Florida City. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for
the Florida West Coast from Florida City to Englewood...including
Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within
6 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Katrina was
located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 79.0 west or about
30 miles... 45 km...south-southwest of Freeport Grand Bahama
Island and about 70 miles... 115 km...east of ft. Lauderdale
Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 24 hour. This motion should bring the center into
the Florida Straits today...and near or over the southeastern
Florida coast later tonight or Friday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is possible today and tonight...
and Katrina could reach category one hurricane strength before the
center reaches the southeastern coast of Florida.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
...110 km from the center. An automated observing station at
Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently reported sustained
winds of 43 mph with a gust to 50 mph...and Freeport on Grand
Bahama Island also reported sustained winds of 43 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.
Due to its slow forward speed...Katrina is expected to produce a
significant heavy rainfall event over the northwest Bahamas...and
South Florida... with total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10
inches and isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...26.2 N... 79.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
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