Hurricane Pam Exercise Concludes.(2004 New Orleans Disaster Prediction)

U.S. Government FEMA news release ^ | July 23, 2004 | FEMA

[Polybius]

Hurricane Pam Exercise Concludes

Release Date: July 23, 2004
Release number: R6-04-093

BATON ROUGE, La. -- Hurricane Pam brought sustained winds of 120 mph, up to 20 inches of rain in parts of southeast Louisiana and storm surge that topped levees in the New Orleans area. More than one million residents evacuated and Hurricane Pam destroyed 500,000-600,000 buildings. Emergency officials from 50 parish, state, federal and volunteer organizations faced this scenario during a five-day exercise held this week at the State Emergency Operations Center in Baton Rouge.

The exercise used realistic weather and damage information developed by the National Weather Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the LSU Hurricane Center and other state and federal agencies to help officials develop joint response plans for a catastrophic hurricane in Louisiana.

"We made great progress this week in our preparedness efforts," said Ron Castleman, FEMA Regional Director. "Disaster response teams developed action plans in critical areas such as search and rescue, medical care, sheltering, temporary housing, school restoration and debris management. These plans are essential for quick response to a hurricane but will also help in other emergencies."

"Hurricane planning in Louisiana will continue," said Colonel Michael L. Brown, Deputy Director for Emergency Preparedness, Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness. "Over the next 60 days, we will polish the action plans developed during the Hurricane Pam exercise. We have also determined where to focus our efforts in the future."

A partial summary of action plans follows:

Debris

The debris team estimates that a storm like Hurricane Pam would result in 30 million cubic yards of debris and 237,000 cubic yards of household hazardous waste The team identified existing landfills that have available storage space and locations of hazardous waste disposal sites. The debris plan also outlines priorities for debris removal.

Sheltering

The interagency shelter group identified the need for about 1,000 shelters for a catastrophic disaster. The shelter team identified 784 shelters and has developed plans for locating the remaining shelters.

In a storm like Hurricane Pam, shelters will likely remain open for 100 days. The group identified the resources necessary to support 1000 shelters for 100 days. They planned for staff augmentation and how to include shelterees in shelter management.

State resources are adequate to operate shelters for the first 3-5 days. The group planned how federal and other resources will replenish supplies at shelters.

Search and Rescue

The search and rescue group developed a transportation plan for getting stranded residents out of harm's way. Planners identified lead and support agencies for search and rescue and established a command structure that will include four areas with up to 800 searchers.

Medical

The medical care group reviewed and enhanced existing plans. The group determined how to implement existing immunization plans rapidly for tetanus, influenza and other diseases likely to be present after a major hurricane.

The group determined how to re-supply hospitals around the state that would face heavy patient loads. The medical action plan includes patient movement details and identifies probable locations, such as state university campuses, where individuals would receive care and then be transported to hospitals, special needs shelters or regular shelters as necessary. Schools

The school group determined that 13,000-15,000 teachers and administrators would be needed to support affected schools. The group acknowledged the role of local school boards and developed strategies for use by local school officials.

Staffing strategies include the use of displaced teachers, retired teachers, emergency certified teachers and others eligible for emergency certification. Displaced paraprofessionals would also be recruited to fill essential school positions. The group discussed facility options for increasing student population at undamaged schools and prioritizing repairs to buildings with less damage to assist in normalizing operations

The school plan also calls for placement or development of temporary schools near temporary housing communities built for hurricane victims.

The Hurricane Pam scenario focused on 13 parishes in southeast Louisiana-Ascension, Assumption, Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. James, St. John, St. Tammany Tangipahoa, Terrebonne. Representatives from outside the primary parishes participated since hurricane evacuation and sheltering involve communities throughout the state and into Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas.

On March 1, 2003, FEMA became part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. FEMA's continuing mission within the new department is to lead the effort to prepare the nation for all hazards and effectively manage federal response and recovery efforts following any national incident. FEMA also initiates proactive mitigation activities, trains first responders, and manages the National Flood Insurance Program and the U.S. Fire Administration.

[Polybius]

For years, LSU Hurricane Center and the Federal Government scietists had predicted the nightmare scenario now unfolding in New Orleans.

The levies surrounding the New Orleans flood basin, designed decades ago, were never designed to cope with anything above a fast-moving (less rain that a slow-moving) Category 3 Hurricane.

The hypothetical "Hurricane Pam" was modeled as: "a hypothetical, slow moving, Class 3 storm used as a worst-case scenario for New Orleans."

New Orleans and Hypothetical Hurricane Pam Interactive Map

Katrina was predicted as a Category 5 and hit as a Category 4.

Note that the 2004 Hurricane Pam Excersise news release published by FEMA in 2004 states:

"....in the New Orleans area. More than one million residents evacuated and Hurricane Pam destroyed 500,000-600,000 buildings."

Everybody got that?

"EVACUATED"

Past tense.

First "residents evacuated" and then "Hurricane Pam destroyed destroyed 500,000-600,000 buildings".

The "Hurricane Pam" scenario called for the evacuation of New Orleans BEFORE New Orleans was destroyed and FEMA's job was to then come in and clean up the mess.

However, in spite of LSU Hurricane Center and U.S. Government scietists predictions of catastrophic damage in the New Orleans flood basin by only "a slow-moving Category 3" hurricane in a FEMA exercise conducted in 2004...............

in spite of the fact that Katrina was predicted as a Category 5 Hurricane...............

...........the Democrat Governor of Louisianna and the Democrat Mayor of New Orleans did nothing, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to plan for the evacuation of New Orleans' low-income population before a predicted Category 5 hurricane although hundreds of city-owned buses remained neatly parked in city-owned parking lots.

Yes, Jesse Jackson, the Superdome did look like "the hold of a slave ship".

An incompetent Democrat Governor and an incompetent Democrat Mayor left them stranded there like drowning rats.

[Echo Talon]

[eurocon]

Sorry...don't yet know how to post hot links but, if you copy & paste, there is a good "pre-hurricane" time-line here;

http://www.americandaughter.com/timeline.html

[spinestein]

To those who are now complaining about the local, state, or federal government's response to the disaster of hurricane Katrina, I offer this rebuttal:

No one could have prevented this natural disaster or lessened its severity by any amount. The wind damage, flooding, and subsequent mass homelessness of hundreds of thousands of people, and the shortages of drinking water, food, electricity, fuel, sanitation and medicine, along with the presence of vermin, disease and lawlessness was inevitable with any large hurricane to hit New Orleans. The nature of the city's isolated environment and the way development expanded human habitation in a vast region near the ocean, nearly all of it below sea level was literally a disaster waiting to happen.

The fact that it has been known for years that the city was vulnerable to this exact tragedy does nothing to allow for a government solution where no solution is or was possible.

When there are so many people living in such a prosperous and comfortable and secure country as we do, then it's also inevitable that people come to expect that this standard of living is an entitlement, somehow guaranteed by the government, and that just by being a citizen of The United States of America we are somehow above the ravages of nature that periodically afflict "lesser countries". How many times in the last few days have you heard something like "You expect this sort of thing to happen in some third world country, but not here in America"? Such arrogance reminds me of the commercial for a flu medication in which the afflicted person says "I'm too busy to suffer from this cold." As if a virus cares that somebody has an active American lifestyle and that cold symptoms might be inconvenient.

Those Americans who think this way should collectively learn a valuable lesson from this: life involves many risks as well as opportunities, and many undesirable consequences of our choices, such as failing to heed the warnings to evacuate in the face of an approaching hurricane, or even the choice to live in a place prone to natural disasters in the first place, cannot be mitigated by what too many believe is an all powerful, nurturing and protecting government.

[Itzlzha]

BUMP!

[KS Flyover]

1 YEAR AGO "Ivan exposes flaws in N.O.'s disaster plans" Mayor & Gov. fail to learn lesson

[longshadow]

"State resources are adequate to operate shelters for the first 3-5 days. The group planned how federal and other resources will replenish supplies at shelters."

I 've been screaming this ever since the mantra went up that the FEDS were somehow responsible for relief starting the minute the flood waters hit NO. Municipal and state gov't provide disaster relief in the first 3-5 days, during which FEMA scopes out the requirements and figures out the logistics to supply needed materials and goods starting around day 5, which is exactly when they showed up in force.

It's the state and municipal relief efforts that were virtally non-existent for the first 5 days that is responsible for the horror show we've all been watching unfold before our eyes on cable TV.

[cwb]

Thanks, I've seen that and noted how even the American Red Cross told the Mayor that they won't even set up shelters in his city if anything more than a Cat-2 comes through. This is also the article that has the ACLU warning the mayor that it is his responsibility to move the poor out of his city. This guy is an absolute failure...and it will be exposed.

[madison10]

Pam? What an insulting name for a hurricane. "Hillary" would be MUCH better.

[Polybius]

To those who are now complaining about the local, state, or federal government's response to the disaster of hurricane Katrina, I offer this rebuttal: No one could have prevented this natural disaster or lessened its severity by any amount.........

Of course you can't prevent the natural disaster but you can certainly minimize the human impact.

I lived in South Florida for 20 years and in South Carolina during the Hurricane Hugo era and my family has lived in South Florida for 45 years.

I know something about hurricanes.

I know that a strong building can cope with high winds just fine but that nothing that man can build can fully protect you from the brunt of a storm surge. A moving wall of water is one of the most destructive forces in Nature.

I know that where you live in Hurricane Ally determines if you can safely stay or if you must evacuate.

If you live in an area subject to storm surge, you need to get the hell out.

That is just Hurricane Basics 101.

My aunt lives in Key Biscayne. My brother has a condo in Key Largo. Other relatives live further inland in Miami.

If my brother hunkers down for a Category 4 Hurricane in Key Largo, he is guaranteed certain death. My aunt on Key Biscayne would not fare too well either. The folks further inland in Miami in sturdy cinder-block contruction houses do just fine.

Therefore, whenever a major hurricane barrels down on South Florida ALL of Key Largo is evacuated and my aunt leaves Key Biscayne to stay with family further inland in Miami.

You want to see what a major hurricane does to an unevacutated coastal area subject to storm surge?

Here it is. Florida Keys. 1935. :

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935...........In total, at least 423 people (164 residents and 259 veterans employed on the road project)(1) were killed by the hurricane. Bodies were recovered as far away as Flamingo and Cape Sable on the southwest tip of the Florida mainland.

Bottom Line:

You DO NOT stay in a storm surge area during a major hurricane.

New Orleans is below sea level in a storm surge area protected by levies designed for a Category 3 storm.

Katrina was predicted as a Category 5 and hit as a Category 4.

[Polybius]

Pam? What an insulting name for a hurricane. "Hillary" would be MUCH better.

I guess they chose "Pam" since P is so far down the alphabetical Hurricane Name list that it would not be confused with a real hurricane.

[jobim]

Amid all the commentary these days, your comments are very helpful and insightful. Thanks!

[sTXsunAggie]

Re: South Florida - life with hurricanes

I understand exactly what you're saying. We've lived in South Texas for about 33 years and we always board up and travel North whenever a hurricane, Level 3 or higher, looks like it's heading our way. We never know whether our home will be there when we return. Each time we evacuate, our drive takes DOUBLE the time it would normally take. It's not fun--in fact it's a pain--but we accept it as part of life and we just do it.

I guess some of the people in New Orleans couldn't drive out. I just find it so hard to believe that they have lived on the Gulf Coast for so long, in a hurricane zone, and never thought or planned ahead what they would do when a storm hit! I mean, there's SOME kind of planning the residents could have done. Perhaps they could have made arrangements with neighbors or relatives to carpool, or maybe the population of a parish could have organized an emergency evacuation plan that would involve having their school buses pick everyone up. There are a lot of scenarios. You HAVE to have a plan.

We don't have a lot of different routes out of our area (Corpus Christi), so we can't wait for someone to MAKE us leave. We have to plan when we're going to leave all by ourselves. Admittedly, it's a HUGE temptation to wait until the last minute to see whether the storm is going to hit us or not--and we've waited almost too late a couple of times--but that is no one's fault but ours.

Bottom line: The people in this disaster area are not stupid, but maybe they're uninformed. Even though they've seen this type of disaster happen all along the Gulf to other people, they apparently need more education about it.

If they decided to stay during Katrina, it was a decision they made on their own--for whatever reason. I hope it teaches all of us not to take chances with our lives.

[sTXsunAggie]

If they decided to stay during Katrina, it was a decision they made on their own--for whatever reason. I hope it teaches all of us not to take chances with our lives.

I know my "diatribe" doesn't take into consideration the people who are hospitalized or incapacitated, but I don't know what the answer to that is...I suppose the answer to that lies with the state and local governments.

[spinestein]

I want to clarify that when I said the extent of the disaster was inevitable, I was referring specifically to New Orleans and I don't think it applies to any other hurricane prone area of the country at all. The effects of hurricanes in Florida or Texas or South Carolina that you spoke of are possible to mitigate with current technology and established government procedures, but the city of New Orleans occupies a unique place.

[Polybius]

I want to clarify that when I said the extent of the disaster was inevitable, I was referring specifically to New Orleans and I don't think it applies to any other hurricane prone area of the country at all. The effects of hurricanes in Florida or Texas or South Carolina that you spoke of are possible to mitigate with current technology and established government procedures, but the city of New Orleans occupies a unique place.

I see your point.

What I am doing is making the distinction between people disasters and property disasters.

New Orleans, like Pompeii, was simply plopped down in a bad place. It's a disaster waiting to happen.

So is my brother's condo in Key Largo.

However, the tragedy is in the people killed and not in the property destroyed.

Take, for example, my brother's condo in Key Largo, just north of Islamorada. It's a great place to spend weekends at but he knows perfectly well that it can disappear on any given hurricane season.

You saw what that storm surge did to that train at Islamorada in 1935. That train had been sent from Miami down to the Florida Keys on the Flagler Overseas Railway to rescue 259 veterans working on the Florida Keys Overseas Highway construction as part of a Works Progress Administration (WPA) project.

The evacuation train, however, left Miami way too late.

It picked up the veterans, it started back for Miami and then the storm surge swept over Islamorada and swept that train off the tracks as if were a Tinker Toy.

All 259 veterans aboard that train died.

Every last trace of the 1935-era Islamorada is gone except for the Memorial commemorating the disaster.

Be that as it may, there is a new town of Islamorada and the Florida Keys are crammed end to end with condos.

However, everybody in the Florida Keys knows that they are on land that is only borrowed from Mother Nature and that Mother Nature can destroy every last piece of property on any given hurricane season.

However, any future disaster in the Florida Keys will be a merely a property disaster and not a human life disaster.

The lessons were tragically learned in 1935 and not a human soul stays in the Florida Keys when a major hurricane is coming.

[Polybius]

Re: South Florida - life with hurricanes ........ I understand exactly what you're saying. We've lived in South Texas for about 33 years and we always board up and travel North whenever a hurricane, Level 3 or higher, looks like it's heading our way.

as part of life and we just do it. I guess some of the people in New Orleans couldn't drive out. I just find it so hard to believe that they have lived on the Gulf Coast for so long, in a hurricane zone, and never thought or planned ahead what they would do when a storm hit! I mean, there's SOME kind of planning the residents could have done. ...........Bottom line: The people in this disaster area are not stupid, but maybe they're uninformed. Even though they've seen this type of disaster happen all along the Gulf to other people, they apparently need more education about it.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

It was about education.

I belive the levies gave the New Orleans low-income, poorly educated residents a false sense of security. The Governor and the Mayor failed them in regards to educating them otherwise.

I spit out a lot of facts about how the New Orleans levy system was predicted to fare in different Category hurricanes in my Post 1 but I did not know any of that a week and a half ago. I had to do a lot of Googling to research that and your average low-income resident is not going to be doing that.

The average low-income resident will takes his cues from Big Brother and Mayor Big Brother and Governor Big Brother had their heads so far up their rectums that they even had to have George Bush in Washington, DC give the evacuation request.

It was Bush that asked the Gov and Mayor to order a mandatory evacuation, NOT their idea at all.

See my last Post 17 about Islamorada.

If I were Governor of Florida, I would know enough about my own State not to have to have the President of the United States call me up to say, "Ummmmm.....Governor Polybius, considering that there is a Category 5 Hurrican heading straight for the Florida Keys, don't you think you need to order a Manadatory Evacuation of the Keys?".

If I were the Mayor of Islamorada, I would have a plan so that, if a hurricane were coming in 48 hours, the low-income residents who had no cars would riding out of the Florida Keys on Islamorada school buses right in front of my own car.

I would not be telling my low-income Islamorada residents from a TV studio in hurricane-safe Miami, "Well, now that you are stuck in Islamorada, why don't you all go to the City Hall Building. It's right next to the 1935 Hurricane Disaster Memorial."

[Cvengr]

Outstanding link.

[lepton]

State resources are adequate to operate shelters for the first 3-5 days. The group planned how federal and other resources will replenish supplies at shelters.

The local and state were responsible for the first 5 days. The Federal government was responsible not to run the shelters after that, but to resupply them. In fact, FEMA and Homeland Security have exceeded that.