Posted on 09/03/2005 1:35:21 PM PDT by Polybius
The levies surrounding the New Orleans flood basin, designed decades ago, were never designed to cope with anything above a fast-moving (less rain that a slow-moving) Category 3 Hurricane.
The hypothetical "Hurricane Pam" was modeled as: "a hypothetical, slow moving, Class 3 storm used as a worst-case scenario for New Orleans."
New Orleans and Hypothetical Hurricane Pam Interactive Map
Katrina was predicted as a Category 5 and hit as a Category 4.
Note that the 2004 Hurricane Pam Excersise news release published by FEMA in 2004 states:
"....in the New Orleans area. More than one million residents evacuated and Hurricane Pam destroyed 500,000-600,000 buildings."
Everybody got that?
"EVACUATED"
Past tense.
First "residents evacuated" and then "Hurricane Pam destroyed destroyed 500,000-600,000 buildings".
The "Hurricane Pam" scenario called for the evacuation of New Orleans BEFORE New Orleans was destroyed and FEMA's job was to then come in and clean up the mess.
However, in spite of LSU Hurricane Center and U.S. Government scietists predictions of catastrophic damage in the New Orleans flood basin by only "a slow-moving Category 3" hurricane in a FEMA exercise conducted in 2004...............
in spite of the fact that Katrina was predicted as a Category 5 Hurricane...............
...........the Democrat Governor of Louisianna and the Democrat Mayor of New Orleans did nothing, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to plan for the evacuation of New Orleans' low-income population before a predicted Category 5 hurricane although hundreds of city-owned buses remained neatly parked in city-owned parking lots.
Yes, Jesse Jackson, the Superdome did look like "the hold of a slave ship".
An incompetent Democrat Governor and an incompetent Democrat Mayor left them stranded there like drowning rats.
Sorry...don't yet know how to post hot links but, if you copy & paste, there is a good "pre-hurricane" time-line here;
http://www.americandaughter.com/timeline.html
I 've been screaming this ever since the mantra went up that the FEDS were somehow responsible for relief starting the minute the flood waters hit NO. Municipal and state gov't provide disaster relief in the first 3-5 days, during which FEMA scopes out the requirements and figures out the logistics to supply needed materials and goods starting around day 5, which is exactly when they showed up in force.
It's the state and municipal relief efforts that were virtally non-existent for the first 5 days that is responsible for the horror show we've all been watching unfold before our eyes on cable TV.
Thanks, I've seen that and noted how even the American Red Cross told the Mayor that they won't even set up shelters in his city if anything more than a Cat-2 comes through. This is also the article that has the ACLU warning the mayor that it is his responsibility to move the poor out of his city. This guy is an absolute failure...and it will be exposed.
Pam? What an insulting name for a hurricane. "Hillary" would be MUCH better.
Of course you can't prevent the natural disaster but you can certainly minimize the human impact.
I lived in South Florida for 20 years and in South Carolina during the Hurricane Hugo era and my family has lived in South Florida for 45 years.
I know something about hurricanes.
I know that a strong building can cope with high winds just fine but that nothing that man can build can fully protect you from the brunt of a storm surge. A moving wall of water is one of the most destructive forces in Nature.
I know that where you live in Hurricane Ally determines if you can safely stay or if you must evacuate.
If you live in an area subject to storm surge, you need to get the hell out.
That is just Hurricane Basics 101.
My aunt lives in Key Biscayne. My brother has a condo in Key Largo. Other relatives live further inland in Miami.
If my brother hunkers down for a Category 4 Hurricane in Key Largo, he is guaranteed certain death. My aunt on Key Biscayne would not fare too well either. The folks further inland in Miami in sturdy cinder-block contruction houses do just fine.
Therefore, whenever a major hurricane barrels down on South Florida ALL of Key Largo is evacuated and my aunt leaves Key Biscayne to stay with family further inland in Miami.
You want to see what a major hurricane does to an unevacutated coastal area subject to storm surge?
Here it is. Florida Keys. 1935. :
Bottom Line:
You DO NOT stay in a storm surge area during a major hurricane.
New Orleans is below sea level in a storm surge area protected by levies designed for a Category 3 storm.
Katrina was predicted as a Category 5 and hit as a Category 4.
I guess they chose "Pam" since P is so far down the alphabetical Hurricane Name list that it would not be confused with a real hurricane.
Amid all the commentary these days, your comments are very helpful and insightful. Thanks!
Re: South Florida - life with hurricanes
I understand exactly what you're saying. We've lived in South Texas for about 33 years and we always board up and travel North whenever a hurricane, Level 3 or higher, looks like it's heading our way. We never know whether our home will be there when we return. Each time we evacuate, our drive takes DOUBLE the time it would normally take. It's not fun--in fact it's a pain--but we accept it as part of life and we just do it.
I guess some of the people in New Orleans couldn't drive out. I just find it so hard to believe that they have lived on the Gulf Coast for so long, in a hurricane zone, and never thought or planned ahead what they would do when a storm hit! I mean, there's SOME kind of planning the residents could have done. Perhaps they could have made arrangements with neighbors or relatives to carpool, or maybe the population of a parish could have organized an emergency evacuation plan that would involve having their school buses pick everyone up. There are a lot of scenarios. You HAVE to have a plan.
We don't have a lot of different routes out of our area (Corpus Christi), so we can't wait for someone to MAKE us leave. We have to plan when we're going to leave all by ourselves. Admittedly, it's a HUGE temptation to wait until the last minute to see whether the storm is going to hit us or not--and we've waited almost too late a couple of times--but that is no one's fault but ours.
Bottom line: The people in this disaster area are not stupid, but maybe they're uninformed. Even though they've seen this type of disaster happen all along the Gulf to other people, they apparently need more education about it.
If they decided to stay during Katrina, it was a decision they made on their own--for whatever reason. I hope it teaches all of us not to take chances with our lives.
I know my "diatribe" doesn't take into consideration the people who are hospitalized or incapacitated, but I don't know what the answer to that is...I suppose the answer to that lies with the state and local governments.
I see your point.
What I am doing is making the distinction between people disasters and property disasters.
New Orleans, like Pompeii, was simply plopped down in a bad place. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
So is my brother's condo in Key Largo.
However, the tragedy is in the people killed and not in the property destroyed.
Take, for example, my brother's condo in Key Largo, just north of Islamorada. It's a great place to spend weekends at but he knows perfectly well that it can disappear on any given hurricane season.
You saw what that storm surge did to that train at Islamorada in 1935. That train had been sent from Miami down to the Florida Keys on the Flagler Overseas Railway to rescue 259 veterans working on the Florida Keys Overseas Highway construction as part of a Works Progress Administration (WPA) project.
The evacuation train, however, left Miami way too late.
It picked up the veterans, it started back for Miami and then the storm surge swept over Islamorada and swept that train off the tracks as if were a Tinker Toy.
All 259 veterans aboard that train died.
Every last trace of the 1935-era Islamorada is gone except for the Memorial commemorating the disaster.
Be that as it may, there is a new town of Islamorada and the Florida Keys are crammed end to end with condos.
However, everybody in the Florida Keys knows that they are on land that is only borrowed from Mother Nature and that Mother Nature can destroy every last piece of property on any given hurricane season.
However, any future disaster in the Florida Keys will be a merely a property disaster and not a human life disaster.
The lessons were tragically learned in 1935 and not a human soul stays in the Florida Keys when a major hurricane is coming.
as part of life and we just do it. I guess some of the people in New Orleans couldn't drive out. I just find it so hard to believe that they have lived on the Gulf Coast for so long, in a hurricane zone, and never thought or planned ahead what they would do when a storm hit! I mean, there's SOME kind of planning the residents could have done. ...........Bottom line: The people in this disaster area are not stupid, but maybe they're uninformed. Even though they've seen this type of disaster happen all along the Gulf to other people, they apparently need more education about it.
I think you hit the nail on the head.
It was about education.
I belive the levies gave the New Orleans low-income, poorly educated residents a false sense of security. The Governor and the Mayor failed them in regards to educating them otherwise.
I spit out a lot of facts about how the New Orleans levy system was predicted to fare in different Category hurricanes in my Post 1 but I did not know any of that a week and a half ago. I had to do a lot of Googling to research that and your average low-income resident is not going to be doing that.
The average low-income resident will takes his cues from Big Brother and Mayor Big Brother and Governor Big Brother had their heads so far up their rectums that they even had to have George Bush in Washington, DC give the evacuation request.
It was Bush that asked the Gov and Mayor to order a mandatory evacuation, NOT their idea at all.
See my last Post 17 about Islamorada.
If I were Governor of Florida, I would know enough about my own State not to have to have the President of the United States call me up to say, "Ummmmm.....Governor Polybius, considering that there is a Category 5 Hurrican heading straight for the Florida Keys, don't you think you need to order a Manadatory Evacuation of the Keys?".
If I were the Mayor of Islamorada, I would have a plan so that, if a hurricane were coming in 48 hours, the low-income residents who had no cars would riding out of the Florida Keys on Islamorada school buses right in front of my own car.
I would not be telling my low-income Islamorada residents from a TV studio in hurricane-safe Miami, "Well, now that you are stuck in Islamorada, why don't you all go to the City Hall Building. It's right next to the 1935 Hurricane Disaster Memorial."
Outstanding link.
The local and state were responsible for the first 5 days. The Federal government was responsible not to run the shelters after that, but to resupply them. In fact, FEMA and Homeland Security have exceeded that.
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