Should conservative Angela Merkel sweep to victory in Sunday's elections, it could mean a fresh start for strained US-German relations, according to analysts. After dipping to new lows under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his center-left coalition, with differences over Iraq and the partnership linking Germany, France and Russia undermining ties, the relationship seems to have stabilized of late. But a victory by Merkel, an Atlanticist like her mentor Helmut Kohl, could make ties to Washington a lot friendlier. "What is happening in Germany is a catalyst for change," said Rockwell Schnabel, former US ambassador to the European Union and author of a new book on the EU and its contentious relations with the United States. Merkel appears to be "a closer friend of the United States and therefore would lead a policy that would be more pro-American and pro-Atlanticist," he added. Merkel's priorities. After riding a wave of anti-Bush sentiment to victory in 2002, Germany's miserable economic state has forced Schröder to focus on domestic issues in his uphill battle to re-election. Opinion polls show that Merkel, candidate for the Christian Democrats, has a good chance at becoming the country's first female chancellor. But up to 30 percent of the electorate remains undecided. Merkel, 51, has said that one of her priorities if elected would be mending the poisoned relationship with the United States, while still not sending troops to Iraq. Washington is also interested in her aggressive pro-free market agenda. Although Bush officials refuse to publicly comment on the outcome of the Sunday vote, privately they say a Merkel victory would be a welcome change. "If the administration representatives are honest they'll tell you 'Well this is a fresh start and Merkel's victory would be a good thing'," said Jackson Janes, director of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies. "We got a lot of leftovers with the Schröder team and we'll probably never be able to change that, so if we get a new team in Berlin it's an opportunity." Others warned, however, that if Merkel wins on Sunday, the Bush administration shouldn't rush to pop the champagne corks. "I don't think that we here in Washington should escalate our expectations that her parameters would be significantly bigger than Schröder's," Janes said. Dieter Dettke, executive director of Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which is close to Schröder's SPD, in Washington, said that while Merkel would certainly work hard to establish smoother lines of communication with Washington, in substance there could be little change under her administration as far as foreign policy is concerne. One likely contentious issue, Janes and Dettke noted, was Merkel's opposition to Turkey becoming a full member of the European Union which put her at odds with Washington. Nonetheless, analysts say, relations under Merkel are unlikely to be any worse than they have been with Schröder. "I think that (if Merkel wins) there's going to be much more of an effort to say 'let's see where we agree...'," Janes said. "In the case of Schröder, there was a great deal of concern that they were thinking more about differences rather than commonalities."
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Merkel is the best hope for Germany and perhaps good for future improved USA relations with DE.
She also is an extremely bright woman.
"Dieter Dettke, executive director of Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which is close to Schröder's SPD, in Washington, said that while Merkel would certainly work hard to establish smoother lines of communication with Washington, in substance there could be little change under her administration as far as foreign policy is concerne."
The thing is: Germany isn't a military superpower anyway: No aircraft carriers, few transport airplanes and so forth. What we have more than enough is tanks to defend Germany from a Russian threat that is no longer there.
The largest part of the army is made up of conscripts anyway. So the 5.000 - 10.000 German soldiers that already serve around the world in Afghanistan or on the Balkans, is probably the maximum number one can expect from a German government anyway.
What Merkel will probably not do is sending German soldiers to Iraq. That would be hugely unpopular - and Merkel has already announced that she will pass some other hugely unpopular laws during the first 100 days (one cutting back the German "Kuendigungsschutz", i.e. protection against dismissal and the other limiting the power of the unions). Merkel is aware that there might be politically motivated strikes in Germany, so she is not gonna bring the topic of Iraq on the table as well.
What the US can realistically expect from a Merkel government is two things:
1.) Merkel might be more open to an increase of the number of German soldiers stationed in Afghanistan and a change of the mandate of the NATO troops there, so the US can shift some more troops to Iraq.
2.) Merkel won't backstab - and that is for sure. Not only is her voter base more pro-american (or at least not anti-american), but she finds it important that the "west" speaks with one voice, e.g. to maintain pressure on Iran. Other than Schroeder who only poses in front of a TV camera and tries to play the tough guy, Merkel is far more pragmatic. Her approach would be: "Let's call Jack (Straw) and Condi and talk it over."
Sweet! (I think ...)
"Center-left???" I'd hate to see what they consider far left...