You're right to chuck those models that don't perform well in the tropics. On the other hand, though, none of the models are very good five days out and we're basically just speculating at this point.
Texas definitely has a high pressure ridge over it for the first part of the week, but that's not the critical time period. Whether it moves or holds will make all the difference.
The worst case scenario, of course, is that Rita makes landfall just southwest of Galveston as Cat 4 or 5 storm. That would push the storm surge into Galveston Bay and knock out a huge percentage of the country's refining capacity. The best case scenario is that she slams into Mexico, although we get a lot of our oil imports from the Bay of Campeche, so even the best case isn't good.
I have a feeling it's going to be a long week, with a very active hurricane thread here at FR.
Most likely this hurricane will be further north. How far is the question...we'll know in the next couple of days...let's pray for it to hit THE KING RANCH...LOL...don't I always say that...
I've got stores at capacity and the Chevy is gassed up.
Belay stores at capacity, I need some more pistol ammo.