How do you see it playing out?
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
What will the final tally be?
I'll post my thoughts later. Just want to get a feel from fellow Freepers.
The recent numbers for santorum looked exceedingly grim.
Sure would be nice to unseat Byrd, I think it's possible.
Every close senate race except Colorado broke in favor of republicans last time.
There's NO race in Oklahoma...did you perhaps mean Ohio?
Democrats were hoping to knock off Mike "Gang of Seven" DeWine, but all their top-tier choices have passed, which means he probably is a strong favorite for re-election. Paul Hackett, however, is rumored to still be in contention.
Yes, Hoeven (not Hoevel) will probably run, and will be the prohibitive favorite to win if he does.
The GOP can and likely will take one of the Great Lakes States: Minnesota.
Ohio (not Oklahoma) would be in play if the Democrats had a highly visible candidate. DeWine may get a scare but is likely to win.
Santorum isn't dead and buried, but I wouldn't sign a long-term lease in Washington if I were him.
We are unlikely to pick up Florida, depending on the nominee. The nomination process has been horribly mishandled by the GOP and we're likely to come out of it with a badly battered and weakened Harris as a candidate. Pity; missed opportunity.
Jeffords's seat is almost certain to go to Bernie Sanders.
Byrd is not an inevitable winner; the state may be renamed after him but many West Virginians are honestly getting embarrassed by the old Klansman. Capito has a decent shot if she runs.
Yes, there is a dark horse race where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset: Maryland (Sarbanes open). As Mfume and Cardin duke it out with each other, Lt. Gov. Steele has an excellent chance if he runs, which I predict he will.
The final tally will be somewhere between a wash and GOP +2.
Any other questions?
There was a rumor that Lott might not run again...that would make Mississippi an open seat, but one the Republicans should be able to hold.
ping...
I think you meant Ohio.
I don't honestly think Ohio is in play. I think DeWhiner is relatively safe, assuming he doesn't step on his weenie between now and the election.
The Dems in Ohio are a perfect example of disarray. I mean Bubba Bob Taft got elected twice here.
Hoeven will not run, because serving in a do-nothing Senate under a weak president who will probably be succeeded by a Democrat isn't an attractive prospect.
Can the GOP take one from the Great Lakes states: Michigan, no. Wisconsin, no. Minnesota, yes, because there isn't an incumbent.
Oklahoma in play? God, I hope not. And I would guess not.
Santorum dead? No, but it will need to be a very well-funded and very aggressive campaign. And he'll still need some luck.
Florida trending GOP? I don't know. Can we beat Nelson? Yes, though it won't be easy and a bloody primary won't help.
Can we win Jeffords' seat? No.
Byrd an inevitable winner? No. At his age, some voters will seriously consider whether he can go another round.
He's also made quite an ass of himself. Finally, Bush did very well in W.Va. last year. Capito has a 1 in 3 shot if she runs against Byrd. In the unlikely event Byrd retires, Capito runs and wins.
Dark horse upset for GOP? Conceivable in New Mexico if Pfeiffer (sp.?) runs a flawless, well-funded campaign and hits HARD on immigration. Otherwise, no.
Final tally: GOP loses Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and probably Montana. Rats may, at best (for GOP), lose Minnesota, Florida and West Virginia. Best guess,
net GOP loss of 2. (Sorry.)
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play? NO
Is Santorum already dead and buried? YES
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?NO
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?NO
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?NO
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?WV
What will the final tally be?Do not know
Yes MN is possible. Real weak Democrat feild. Very strong probable challenge in Mark Kennedy
"Will Hoevel run in ND?"
I have no idea. If he does run, I expect he will unseat Kent Conrad by a slim margin.
"Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?"
The GOP is a slight favorite to take Minnesota, where Congressman Mark Kennedy will probably face Hennipen County District Amy Klobuchar. In Michigan, former Detriot Councilman Keith Butler is interesting and unconventional, but whether that amounts to competitive remains to be seen. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin looks to be safe.
"Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?"
I think you mean Ohio. Yes, it's in play because Senator Mike DeWine is posting dangerously low approval ratings. Luckily, no first-tier Democrats are interesting in running. Former Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who was almost elected Congressman from a heavily GOP district recently, is thinking of running.
"Is Santorum already dead and buried?"
Not yet, but if he keeps up his blundering, he will be. His bloopers include: claiming that employed mothers are motivated to work by laziness instead of economic need, claiming that the people of Boston were personally responsible for sexually abusive priests, supporting the crappy CAFTA treaty in a state with a history of protectionism, and implying that New Orleans disaster victims deserved what they got. The slogan "Apologize now, it will save time later" applies to him very well. Incidently, it's a mistake to say that his opponent, state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., is being mistaken for his father. In Pennsylvania, it's well known that Bob Casey, Sr. is dead.
"Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?"
Florida is remaining with the GOP rather than moving towards it. Bill Nelson can definitely be defeated, but whether Katherine Harris is the candidate who can do it is another question entirely.
"Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?"
With Governor Jim Douglas not running, only if Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie is the nominee. And it looks like he will run. However, even with Dubie as the nominee, it'll be difficult to defeat "Independent" Socialist Bernie Sanders.
"Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?"
Not if Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito runs. In fact, if she is the candidate, I predict she will win a narrow victory over the visibly aging Byrd.
"Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?"
I see a couple of possibilities. Michigan, which I've already mentioned, could produce a surprise. In New Mexico, I don't rule out Santa Fe Councilman David Pfeffer upsetting Jeff Bingaman. In New Jersey, growing Democratic infighting over Jon Corzine's successor once he's elected Governor gives RINO Tom Kean, Jr., the son and namesake of a beloved ex-Governor, a shot. And unless you count Sen. Lincoln Chafee as a Republican (which is questionable, in spite of his formal affiliation), Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey is worth watching.
"What will the final tally be?"
Too soon to say. Incidently, races in Washington state and Maryland also provide the GOP with pickup opportunities. A victory in Maryland by Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele would be cause for celebration even if Democrats do well in other races next year.
My guess is yes. I think the odds are 60/40 that he'll run.
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Minnesota is a pure toss up.
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
Not this election cycle, no. In part that's because there's no Senate election in 2006.
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
Yep..
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Yes, but probably not next year, and almost certainly not with Harris as the nominee.
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Yes, but it won't be next year. Governor Douglas could do it, but he's not running.
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
In my view, yes. But that's a minority view, especially around here.
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
Hmm.. Nebraska definitely. Also New Jersey.
What will the final tally be?
If the election were held today it'd be a wash. Dems pick up Pennsylvania and GOP picks up Minnesota.
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Hoeven will run, and I'm guessing will win by a close margin.
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Yes. We likely will win Minnesota. The MN GOP has already rallied around one very strong candidate, and the Dem primary is getting bloodier every day, and none of the candidates are first teir. Why this is the case, I couldn't tell you, but it is. Let's hope the dems don't get their act together. If they don't, we'll destroy them. If they do, then we'll probably still win, but it'll be tougher.
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
You mean Ohio? Since there is no race in Oklahoma? If you mean Ohio, no. DeWine will be easily re-elected. The Governor's mansion...that's a different story unfortunately. And in some ways, deservedly so.
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
No. He's still sitting on a pile of cash, and Casy Jr. has a glass jaw. But it's gonna be tough.
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Probably not. But I wouldn't write it off yet. I sure wish Galligher would run for Senate. If he could beat Harris the primary, he'd trash Nelson. I actually think Harris could have beaten him, but all the negavite publicity about people worrying about her isn't helping. Still, I wouldn't write it off, but I'd put it in the 'leaning Dem' category.
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Jim Douglas maybe, maybe could have won it. Now, it is possible, IF the D's run a candidate. Which actually is possible, from what I understand. But this is the equivilant of a triple bank shot. I wouldn't put money on it.
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be
renamed after him in the next ten years?
No. Heck, I think if we can even force him to run a real campaign, he might drop dead. I AM NOT WISHING FOR THIS, merely observing that he is really old, and not in great health. He might not run at all if Capito runs. And I think he'd be only slightly above 50/50 if he does.
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
Michigan. Butler, while he has no name ID and is given litte chance, is extremely charismatic, and has won as an R in the most D city in the country (Detroit). I wouldn't bet on it, but if there was an unexpected race to turn our way, this would be the one.
That is, assuming you consider Maryland with Steele a real contest and not a long shot, which I don't. I think it's 50/50.
What will the final tally be?
GOP +1, possibly 2 or 3 though. Worst case is -1. I'd say win ND, MN, lose RI (which wouldn't be a real loss, who'd really care?), Penn & one unexpected (such as Talent or Burns) is the worst realistic case. Best realistic case would be win at least 3 of WV, MN, ND, NE, FL, ML, and lose nothing.
Regarding Tennessee's open seat, there's a good chance the Senate could become more conservative with the election of Ed Bryant to replace the weak-kneed Bill Frist. The republican field is made up of Bryant (send illegal immigrants home, pro-life, etc.), Van Hilleary (also more conservative than Frist but probably less so than Bryant), and Bob Corker (CINO like Frist). The almost certain Dim nominee is Harold Fraud Ford, Jr., who comes from the most corrupt political-dynasty family in Tennessee. While Ford is slick, and gets a lot of free national media attention, I don't see him playing well outside of Memphis and Nashville. If Bryant does win the repub nomination and is willing to take the gloves off on Jr.'s record, Bryant should win this one hands down.