[Skylab]

Is that a prophetic utterance, a hunch, or something you heard on from a weather person?

I read it here: Hurricane RITA Strike Probabilities

40% of hitting 27.8N 92.4W (that's Louisiana)
39% of hitting GULF 28N 91W (Louisiana)
34% of hitting GULF 28N 93W (Louisiana)
29% of hitting 29.2N 93.8W (Louisiana)
...and so on

Galveston, TX 26%
PORT ARTHUR, TX 26%
Freeport TX 24%
New Orleans, LA at 15%

All of the most likely landfall points are in Louisiana.

[james_f_hall]

Gulf is not landfall. Those are points expected to be 65NM from eye.

[NautiNurse]

That table doesn't predict landfall. It predicts that the storm will pass within 65nm of a point within a certain time. It is driven by geographic location of the storm at the point in time when the table was generated.

[Dog Gone]

All of the most likely landfall points are in Louisiana.

Um, that's the coming within 65 nautical miles of those points, not landfall, and it's currently south of Lousiana, as it approaches shore it will defintely get closer to Louisiana, thus fulfilling your prophecy, sort of, but not really.

[ex-Texan]

Thanks for the links, Skylab. I predicted Rita would hit Louisiana last night. Based on my research this afternoon, it's better for our economy this way. Texas has the most oil refineries. Our economy would take too much of a hit if Rita trashed the oil rigs and refineries in and near Texas.

[grwcfl537]

All of the most likely landfall points are in Louisiana.

Looks to me like Iberia Parish is a likely strike point. Rita seems to be riding the 1008mb isobar and many storms veer a little east on landfall.

[Torie]

 40% of hitting 27.8N 92.4W (that's Louisiana)
39% of hitting GULF 28N 91W (Louisiana)
34% of hitting GULF 28N 93W (Louisiana)
29% of hitting 29.2N 93.8W (Louisiana)

Those areas are wet enough for south Louisiana; in fact they are so wet, that they are in the Gulf, in fact beyond the 3 mile state limit. The most likely area to be hit is between Galveston and Port Arthur. That is where the percentages are highest. The percentages are within 65 miles of the eye by the way.