Posted on 10/08/2005 7:58:28 PM PDT by freedomdefender
The fear "is very much overdone, in my opinion," said Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor of immunology at New York Medical College, who has treated flu patients since the 1957 pandemic and has studied the 1918 flu.
The bird flu, he said, is distantly related to earlier flus, and humans have already been exposed to them, providing some resistance.
Scientists also say that the death rate may not be as high as it appears, because some milder cases may not have been reported.
Dr. Kilbourne and other experts also noted that when viruses become more transmissible, they almost always become less lethal. Viruses that let their hosts stay alive and pass the disease on to others, he explained, have a better chance of spreading than do strains that kill off their hosts quickly.
Moreover, he said, while much has been made of comparisons between the current avian flu and the 1918 strain, the factors that helped increase the flu's virulence in 1918 - the crowding together of millions of World War I troops in ships, barracks, trenches and hospitals - generally do not exist today for humans.
....medical care had improved greatly since 1918. Although some flu victims then turned blue overnight and drowned from blood, with fluid leaking into their lungs, many more died of what are now believed to be bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.
Although the death toll from that flu was high, the actual death rate was less than 5 percent.
In addition, more people now live in cities, where they have probably caught more flus, giving them immunity to later ones. "In 1918, you had a lot of farm boys getting their first contact with city folks who'd had these things," Dr. Kilbourne said.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
I feel much of this is scare and hype, but to what end?
One word: DDT
Well, after the way the media bashed Bush on Katrina, realistically he had no choice but to make a loud and clear cautionary statement and gear up the vaccine process. Otherwise, if bird flu were to hit the country, the MSM would eagerly seize the opportunity to blame him for being lazy and unprepared, and thus finish him off for good.
No one knows what the odds are of this getting loose. But if it did, it would be very serious indeed. I think it's only prudent to make some preparations for it.
Sad commentary, isn't it. It is awful how the media and the government have conditioned us to always look to government for the answers to our problems.
> I feel much of this is scare and hype, but to what end?
Just the excerpt posted is riddled with contradictions.
It reads like a defense of some Clinton malfeasance
hastily written by Sandy Bergler.
It's BS-laden poo-pooing, no doubt motivated by the fact
that GW takes the H5N1 threat very seriously, the NYT's
buddies, the ChiComs are withholding crucial information,
the medical and governmental infrastructue is woefully
unprepared for a 1918-class event, and the general public
is bumblingly unaware and unprepared.
FYI, and people would like to hear your thoughts. It is the NYT, after all...
1957 pandemic?
This threat is very real and deadly. CNN just told me all about it. It's only 8,000 miles away now and, if it breaks out all over Asia it would be here in only a month and half. We're not prepared because CNN showed us the NY Times article that says we're not. Fortunately, they told us the answer: nationalized health care. CNN is the network I trust for news. /SARCASM.
Ya know, we bounce from one catastrophe to another. It's like a weekly gameshow, What's My Catastrophe? Sheesh.
For the government and UN med types it is see how important we are!
Chicken Little is gonna get us back for laughing at him
It is still true that with what is known at this time there is way too much hype and scare going on. The bottom line is that there is no way to adequately prepare for a flu virus mutation that may or may not exist with a human to human vector mechanism. Vaccine cannot be prepared on short notice for specific genetic variants in large quantities, it is not manufactured through a chemical process like antibiotics or other medications. The best planning would include enforced quarantine of infected populations to keep the virus from spreading to other loci. If this is not done, there is nothing else on a large scale that could be done to protect the uninfected portion of the public. This type of infection has happened before and certainly will happen again. Will it happen this year with this viral strain? Too early to tell, but I am willing to bet the most likely vector into the U.S. will be over the southern border.
I talked to my brother this afternoon. I asked him if he was gearing up for avian flu. He is a pharmacist. He said he gears up every year at this time. He was very serious and said that even though the "gear up" occurs every year at this time, he is very concerned...that he is convinced that if not this year, the avian flu will eventually cause problems. He said, "Please get your regular flu shot."
I don't feel confortable with people digging up dead victims from the 1918 flu in order to duplicate the virus. Which is exactly what they did.
That's more scarier to me than the Bird Flu threat.
I kinda look at this like hurricanes here in FL; be very prepared and then press on with life. Eat well, take some vitamins, get enough rest, lower the stress and if you really need it medically, get the shot. We got bigger fish to fry...
PS - Don't forget your prayers!
The Feds are juicing up the Avian Flu thing to get us ready for an al-Qaeda bio-terror strike(s) and response(s) imho. Then they can say it is avian flu, we'll feel like we know what is going on, and...
Not only that, but we are due for an earthquake in California in October...Right when Batman is on vacation! POW! ZAP!
NYC subway. Any sport's stadium.
One thing that came through in separate articles was the fast spread of the 1918 virus that could not be attributed to the movement of people. But check bird migration and there is an easy connection. The good Doctor assumes human spreading of the virus. That may only be a part of the problem.
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