CA: Poll numbers clash on propositions

LA Daily News ^ | 10/22/05 | William Finn Bennett

[NormsRevenge]

All those polling numbers about ballot initiatives got you feeling dazed and confused? You're not alone. With the conflicting numbers shown in recent public opinion polls, many voters must be wondering just what is going on.

Check out one poll on Proposition 76, a state spending-cap proposal, and it appears that 58 percent of voters support the initiative while 36 percent oppose it.

Check out another poll and it appears that just the opposite is true, with 19 percent saying they support the measure and 65 percent saying they oppose it. Another recent poll shows similar numbers, with 63 percent of respondents opposing the measure, versus 26 percent opposed.

In the face of such discrepancies, who's a voter to believe?

Wording is key

In November's special election, voters will decide the fate of eight different measures. The state spending-cap initiative is one of the most controversial. It would limit state spending to prior year levels and the average revenue growth in the previous three years and would permit the governor to reduce state budgets, including for education, under certain circumstances.

Representatives with two polling agencies, San Francisco-based Field Research Corp. and New Jersey-based Survey USA, said the differences in opinion poll results about the ballot initiatives can often be explained by the words that are used in the questions.

The two company officials differ, however, on whether the wording should be a simplified version of what voters will see on the ballot or whether the description of the measure that is read to those being polled should reflect as closely as possible the wording on the ballot.

Survey USA editor Jay Leve said last week that ballot language is often misleading.

His organization tries to distill the wording down to its essence for clarity's sake and to improve the accuracy of the survey results, Leve said.

"There is an art to writing ballot language to make them as obscure as possible; our purpose is to get the election right," Leve said. "Election polls for us are not an (occasional) thing; we do it every day, and how we choose to word questions is a subject of great study here."

An official with Field Research Corp. said that using the language that voters will see on their ballot is essential for gauging how voters will decide on an initiative at the ballot box.

The two companies, which sell their services to media outlets and often compete head-to-head for business, each say their wording method is best.

"When you get (poll) differences that are 50 or 60 points, to me, it goes to the basic element of what you are reading to the voter," said Field's Mark DiCamillo, adding that by not reading the title of the measure to voters ---- which carries the words "School Funding Spending Limits" in bold-faced print ---- Survey USA committed an omission, skewing the results of their poll.

In responding to DiCamillo's assertion, Leve said: "Survey USA has the greatest respect for the Field organization; both companies are doing their best to get this election right."

He stressed that he stands by his company's record when it comes to what matters most: accurately predicting the outcome of elections.

The Survey USA poll that showed voters heavily in favor of Prop. 76 was published in early October. The Field poll, published in early September, showed voters overwhelmingly against the measure. Another poll, published by the Public Policy Institute of California in late September, also showed a significant majority of voters opposing the initiative.

The questions

Field Research and the Public Policy Institute of California, as well as most other polling agencies, have workers call random households and interview residents over the phone. Survey USA uses an automated system to call random households. The descriptions and questions are recorded by TV news anchors, and respondents answer by punching in a number to represent answers to the questions.

The Survey USA question that was posed to voters reads as follows:

"Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?"

Field poll respondents, meanwhile, heard the following: "As you know, Prop.76 is the 'State Spending and School Funding Limits' initiative. It limits state spending to prior year's levels plus the average revenue growth of three previous years. It also changes the minimum school funding requirements under Proposition 98 and permits the governor, under specified circumstances, to reduce budget appropriations of the governor's choosing. Fiscal impact: State spending would likely be reduced, due to the additional spending limit and the governor's new powers. Reductions could apply to schools and shift costs to other governments. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 76?"

The language in the questions asked by pollsters with the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute closely mirrors the wording that voters will see on the ballot.

A San Diego State University professor of political science questioned the wording in the Survey USA question on Prop. 76, saying that skewed results are almost inevitable if the question makes no mention of the measure's potential impacts on school funding.

"There is simply not enough information in that description to allow voters to give informed opinions," said Carole Kennedy, a professor specializing in campaigns and elections. "That is a particularly egregious example of not fully informing (the respondent)."

Polls' impact on vote

One of the potential consequences of poll results is that they can end up influencing some people's vote on a measure, Kennedy said.

"What we are talking about is something called the 'bandwagon effect,' " Kennedy said. "That will have an influence on (some) people to the extent that people like to go with a winner."

A UC San Diego political science professor disagrees.

"I don't think (polls) directly affect initiative elections," said Thad Kousser, who specializes in California politics.

"What they are important for is if you have an election with many candidates, they will tell you whether your candidate has a legitimate chance or not," he said, adding that in those cases, voters will often shift their vote if they see their candidate has no chance of winning.

Field Research's DiCamillo said he doesn't believe that poll results influence voters.

"That is an interesting theory, but there are just too many cases when that doesn't work," he said.

Proposition 73

In addition to the conflicting poll results on Prop. 76, questions on another initiative by the same three polling organizations yielded very different results.

Pollsters asked voters if they support or oppose Proposition 73, which is also on the November ballot. If approved, that initiative would require physicians to notify parents at least 48 hours in advance before performing an abortion on a minor.

The early September Field poll results showed 45 percent of respondents in favor of the measure and an equal number of respondents against it. The Public Policy Institute of California poll results in late September showed 44 percent in favor and 48 percent against the initiative. However, the Survey USA poll results from early October showed a very different picture, with 59 percent in favor of the proposal and 39 percent against it.

Again, however, the question posed to respondents in the USA Survey poll was a highly simplified version of what voters will see on the ballot and did not mention several key provisions in the measure. The Field Research and Public Policy Institute questions closely mirrored the ballot language.

The Survey USA question read as follows:

"Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were held today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?"

The question posed to respondents on the Public Policy Institute question read as follows:

"Proposition 73 is called the 'Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor's Pregnancy Initiative Constitutional Amendment.' It defines and prohibits abortion for an unemancipated minor until 48 hours after the physician notifies the minor's parent or legal guardian, except in a medical emergency or with parental waiver. It mandates reporting requirements and authorizes monetary damages against physicians for violations. The potential state costs would be several million dollars annually for health and social service programs, the courts and state administration combined. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 73."

UCSD's Kousser said he believes that using language that voters will see on the ballot is more likely to produce accurate poll results.

"The question is: What are people going to have in their head when in the voting booth?" Kousser said.

[Paleo Conservative]

Sounds like leftists are trying to use polls to shape opinion rather than measure it.

[Ma3lst0rm]

Haven't they always?

[seastay]

Oct. 18, 2005 KGTV San Diego

PROP 75: No Public Union Dues For Politics
Yes: 56%

PROP 76: Spending Limits
Yes: 54%

PROP 77: Redistricting Changes
Yes: 54%

Compare with poll released ~ oct 1 by the Public Policy Institute


Prop 75
Yes 32 %

Prop. 76
YES 26 %

Prop 77
Yes 33%


http://www.10news.com/politics/5120193/detail.html

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/10/05/BAG4AF2H471.DTL

[ExTexasRedhead]

My absentee ballot already mailed with a yes to all Arnold's propositions!

[MassachusettsGOP]

Which one is right?? Thats all i want to know

[Names Ash Housewares]

My God! We just might have to acutally have an election to find out the will of the people! LOL

[concentric circles]

For comparison, here's their numbers for the recall election:

Shall Gray Davis be recalled?
Final Vote..........Yes - 55.4%......No - 44.6%
Survey USA................57%.................43%
Field Poll.....................57%................ 39%

Who should replace Davis?
Schwarzenegger
Final Vote........48.6%
Survey USA.....46%
Field Poll..........36%

Bustamante
Final Vote........31.5%
Survey USA.....34%
Field Poll..........26%

Numbers from:
California Secretary of State
http://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/recall/00.htm
http://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/gov/00.htm
Real Clear Politics.com
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/California_Recall3.html

[CyberAnt]

"Sounds like leftists are trying to use polls to shape opinion rather than measure it."


So .. you were expecting something different that what they usually do ..??

[calcowgirl]

	S-H-KN	SurveyUSA	SurveyUSA	PPIC	PPIC	Field	Field
						09/05/05 &
	10/17/05	10/18/05	10/03/05	09/29/05	08/25/05	09/06/05	06/23/05
Proposition 73
Support	54	60	59	n/a	44	45	48
Oppose	46	38	39	n/a	48	45	43
Undecided/Don't Know	--	2	2	n/a	8	10	9
Proposition 74
Support	49	53	55	43	49	46	61
Oppose	51	45	44	47	42	37	32
Undecided/Don't Know	--	1	2	10	9	17	7
Proposition 75
Support	70	56	60	n/a	58	55	57
Oppose	30	42	37	n/a	33	32	34
Undecided/Don't Know	--	2	3	n/a	9	13	9
Proposition 76
Support	30	54	58	26	28	19	35
Oppose	70	41	36	63	61	65	42
Undecided/Don't Know	--	5	6	11	11	16	23
Proposition 77
Support	50	54	59	33	34	32	32
Oppose	50	41	36	50	49	46	46
Undecided/Don't Know	--	5	5	17	17	22	19
Proposition 78
Support	59	n/a	n/a	43	n/a	49	57
Oppose	41	n/a	n/a	38	n/a	31	26
Undecided/Don't Know	--	n/a	n/a	19	n/a	20	17
Proposition 79
Support	58	n/a	n/a	34	n/a	42	48
Oppose	42	n/a	n/a	40	n/a	34	33
Undecided/Don't Know	--	n/a	n/a	26	n/a	24	19
Proposition 80
Support	37	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oppose	63	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Undecided/Don't Know	--	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a