Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Where the WMDs Went
FrontPage Magazine ^ | Nov. 16, 2005 | Jamie Glazov

Posted on 11/16/2005 5:49:34 AM PST by conservativecorner

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 121-139 next last
To: Robert357

bookmark


41 posted on 11/16/2005 7:38:51 AM PST by chaosagent (Remember, no matter how you slice it, forbidden fruit still tastes the sweetest!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: conservativecorner

bump


42 posted on 11/16/2005 7:45:23 AM PST by TASMANIANRED (Conservatives are from earth. Liberals are from Uranus.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: patriciamary
I have always felt Iraq had WMD's ,what I do not under is why the administration keeps saying we were wrong ,there was no weapons .It does not make sense.

It does if you are trying to build confidence in the Iraqi people. There are also numerous other consequences that could result from acknowledging their existence. If you acknowledge he had some, then the question is how many did he have ? Have all of them been found ? Where did they go ? Did Syria get some ? If Syria got some and we officially acknowledge that they could have gotten some, that act alone could provoke Syria into using whatever they did get. If we told Israel that Syria got Biological and Chemical WMD from Saddam while we were diddling with the UN, would not Israel consider a first strike to prevent their inevitable use on Israel ? If we acknowledge that some nasty WMD existed and that we may not have found all of them, what about Iran ? Would they be justified to invade to help us locate the Loose WMD ? What about if we know that terrorist got their hands on some of the chemical and biological WMD ? Would that not frighten a lot of people ? Perhaps it would be best to deny the existence of the WMD in the first place while we hunt down those terrorist. Not saying any of this happened or is happening, just illustrating some valid reasons to deny the recovery of WMD.

Personally I think the M1 tanks should have gone all the way to Baghdad after we destroyed Saddam's Kuwait invasion force. But as they say, hindsight is 20-20.

43 posted on 11/16/2005 7:46:41 AM PST by justa-hairyape
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: conservativecorner
Terrific interview!

Why doesn't the feckless GOP have this guy on all the Sunday Blab Shows?

44 posted on 11/16/2005 7:47:38 AM PST by Gritty ("Far too many Americans still think the dragons are at the far fringes of the map - Mark Steyn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: justa-hairyape
Personally I think the M1 tanks should have gone all the way to Baghdad after we destroyed Saddam's Kuwait invasion force. But as they say, hindsight is 20-20.

You and me and about 200 million other Americans always thought so. But supposedly the wussy coalition wouldn't stand for it, fearing that Iraq would break apart and destabilize the region.
45 posted on 11/16/2005 7:51:27 AM PST by George W. Bush
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: STFrancis

ping for later reading


46 posted on 11/16/2005 8:01:57 AM PST by STFrancis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: conservativecorner

great article. thanks for posting it.


47 posted on 11/16/2005 8:06:47 AM PST by sauropod ("The love that dare not speak its' name has now become the love that won't shut the hell up.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snowman1

More pics here: http://www.defendamerica.mil/photoessays/aug2003/p080603b1.html


48 posted on 11/16/2005 8:15:24 AM PST by GBA (I believe Congressman Weldon! MSM do your job.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: McGruff
NOW the EVILE Dums claim there were no WMD's when we got there. How convenient.
49 posted on 11/16/2005 8:22:41 AM PST by marty60
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: marty60

Saddam wasn't buying yellowcake from Niger, right?

Joe Wilson was going to Niger on BUSINESS.

What BUSINESS?

He owned a company that was in NIGER doing Business.

Doing what business?

The company is a BROKER.

What were they BROKERING?

Sale of Yellowcake between President of Niger and Saddam.

This is the ELEPHANT in the middle of the ROOM.


50 posted on 11/16/2005 8:44:17 AM PST by UCANSEE2 (I jez calls it az I see it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: George W. Bush
For instance, in the underground bunker where he *assumes* nuclear research was being conducted, enough to cause a technician to get sick from one day's exposure, there would certainly be residual radiation.

Um...do you have a remote grasp of Radioactive Chemistry? The soldier's exposure might not have been contact, but energy (Gamma ray).

This isn't MST3K when they had the AWESOME phrases from the Gamera episode...

(Scientists)"Don't go in there, there's Radiation!"
(Tom Servo)"And as everyone knows, it can only affect you if you touch it!"

Unless the radioactive elements actually escaped and physically touched surfaces, there would be NO contamination...contrary to popular myth, radioactive spills CAN be cleaned (google the word "DuPont Count Off") the only POSSIBLE remaining sign would be the effects on materials by radioactive energy bombardment...but the IAEA is run by an Islamazi, and I'm sure Saddam's scientists either removed or repaired over any damage areas.

Seriously, if the "lab" was self-contained"...only the lab would have evidence...outside of power/water/ventillation connections that a trained eye might be able to observe and connect to...but I have serious doubts the IAEA was interested in anything more than a Joe Wilson sweet tea party.

51 posted on 11/16/2005 8:54:21 AM PST by Itzlzha ("The avalanche has already started...it is too late for the pebbles to vote")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: UCANSEE2

Yes, I have always thought he was in Bed so-to-speak with Saddamn. That picture of Wilson and Saddamn probably has a place of honor in his Den at home.


52 posted on 11/16/2005 9:17:37 AM PST by marty60
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

later read


53 posted on 11/16/2005 9:19:06 AM PST by Mo1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: George W. Bush
Litigation depends on evidence, intelligence depends on indicators.

The Democrats understand the difference between the two concepts, but have no qualms about blurring the distinction for political gain. This is despicable. This has brought great harm to our nation’s credibility with our allies.

By demanding evidence on but one of 23 Congressionally-specified reasons for doing battle with Iraq (see Post 40), you publicly declare your shallowness and willingness to be duped by the anti-American Party (otherwise known as the Democrat Party).

The coin of national security is intelligence, not, unfortunately, fact. Given the state of intelligence that existed prior to the invasion of Iraq, the decision to bring down Saddam was prudent.

Note that the 'Rats, with the eager assistance of their mainstream media subversives, have succeeded in moving the goalposts far beyond the endzone--outside the stadium in fact. As Post 40 suggests, look at the Congressional Resolution and you'll see there is no mention of stockpiles of WMD, but rather a focus on WMD programs. After the invasion evidence of programs was deemed to be insufficient--evidence of stockpiles was instead demanded. But no official justification for invading Iraq has ever included the existence of WMD stockpiles.

54 posted on 11/16/2005 9:20:33 AM PST by PeoplesRepublicOfWashington (Dream Ticket: Cheney/Rice '08)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: theDentist
Now if only we could get a Republican to read it....

LOL... what good would that do? They won't react other than hide.

55 posted on 11/16/2005 9:22:52 AM PST by CommandoFrank (Peer into the depths of hell and there you will find the face of Islam...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Itzlzha
Seriously, if the "lab" was self-contained"...only the lab would have evidence...outside of power/water/ventillation connections that a trained eye might be able to observe and connect to...but I have serious doubts the IAEA was interested in anything more than a Joe Wilson sweet tea party.

I seriously doubt the Iraqis are organized enough to keep everything this clean. No other government has been able to do so. Including ours.

And I wasn't suggesting relying on the IAEA. I think we can muster independent scientists from UK, America and New Europe. But we still don't have the evidence.

I think there is evidence, certainly from Saddam's earlier program. The fact that the White House makes no real effort to muster such evidence and present it indicates to me that they don't consider the proof of WMD to be important to their policy objectives. Is it important to some people at FR and other conservative sites? Yes. But not, apparently, to them. What the WH does resist is that the intel which indicated WMD is questioned or reinterpreted or that Dims try to pretend that someone lied to them. But that is a political fight, not one about the substance of the WMD allegations.

It's hard to say that we've conducted an all-out search for WMD. For instance, Saddam's henchmen said that they poured the chemical weapons on the ground. Why not go test for it? If they didn't allow it to disperse in the atmosphere, it should leave some traces in the soil. Heck, the EPA could probably discover if some evil corporation ever so much as farted upwind of Iraq. Detecting the mass dumping of chemical weapons anywhere in Iraq should be something we can discover and document.

Given how many research labs and storage areas Saddam had, there has to be some traces of the work that was done. Simply collecting that information would be helpful. And yet, no real effort has been made.

A lot is made of the aluminum tube found in the garden of Saddam's chief nuke scientist. It is supposed to be the precision-machined aluminum tube used to make a centrifuge. Yet we know it takes thousands of centrifuges to produce enough material for a bomb in a five to ten year period, assuming enough electricity is available (live TVA in WW II). So, assuming that part is a prototype, where are all the rest of the machines? Where are the materials to be used to make them?

This kind of thing is why we don't see the Bush WH making claims for WMD. There probably is proof of WMD, certainly of the old programs before Gulf War I. But they just aren't interested in finding and presenting it. Or they believe that the antiwar types will be just as opposed if they do finally prove WMD.
56 posted on 11/16/2005 9:26:30 AM PST by George W. Bush
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: George W. Bush

George W Bush (liberal masked as man of reason or SOS)

What's disingenuous is to present claims of WMD activity without any proof to back them up. I'm asking for evidence. A WMD find comparable to those we got when Libya surrendered their program to us. Or a large number of credible witnesses (scientists, technicians, transport people, government officials) who can put together a picture of how they acquired the WMD materials, how and where it was processed, how it was disposed of or evacuated.

Facts are pesky things but otherwise you end up with wishful thinking. I gave up on that a month after we invaded when every WMD claim turned out to be nothing

XXXXXXXXXXX

Many articles exist and you as an expert in this filed of denial should be able to search out the truth. Here is how you do it. You google WMD stories and cross check. Until then you are only an opinion and everyone has one.

Here is just one of many reports of WMD's. What is most interesting it is a complaint by the IAEW (UN controlled) we stolen yellow cake from the poeple of IRAQ. Just how SOS can you be?? Get off your dead A$$ and do the research. For every story you can find that is valid I find 2 that counters your position.


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The Uranium Joe Wilson Didnt Mention july 2005
NewsMax ^ | 7/17/05 | Carl Limbacher
Posted on 07/17/2005 4:21:36 PM CDT by wagglebee
By April 2003, when the U.S. invaded Iraq, Saddam Hussein had stockpiled 500 tons of yellowcake uranium at his al Tuwaitha nuclear weapons development plant south of Baghdad.

That intriguing little detail is almost never mentioned by the big media, who prefer to chant the mantra "Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction" while echoing Joseph Wilson's claim that "Bush lied" about seeking more of the nuclear material in Niger. The media's decision to put the Wilson-Plame affair back on the front burner, however, may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for President Bush - giving his administration a chance to resurrect an important debate they conceded far too easily about the weapons of mass destruction threat posed by Saddam Hussein.
First, the facts - from a reliable critic of the White House - the New York Times, which covered the story long after the paper announced it was tightening its standards on WMD news out of Iraq.

"The United States has informed an international agency that oversees nuclear materials that it intends to move hundreds of tons of uranium from a sealed repository south of Baghdad to a more secure place outside Iraq," the paper announced in a little noticed May 2004 report.

"The repository, at Tuwaitha, a centerpiece of Saddam Hussein's nuclear weapons program until it was largely shut down after the first Persian Gulf war in 1991, holds more than 500 tons of uranium," the paper revealed, before insisting: "None of it [is] enriched enough to be used directly in a nuclear weapon."

Well, almost none.

The Times went on to report that amidst Saddam's yellowcake stockpile, U.S. weapons inspectors found "some 1.8 tons" that they "classified as low-enriched uranium."

The paper conceded that while Saddam's nearly 2 tons of partially enriched uranium was "a more potent form" of the nuclear fuel, it was "still not sufficient for a weapon."
Consulted about the low-enriched uranium discovery, however, Ivan Oelrich, a physicist at the Federation of American Scientists, told the Associated Press that if it was of the 3 percent to 5 percent level of enrichment common in fuel for commercial power reactors, the 1.8 tons could be used to produce enough highly enriched uranium to make a single nuclear bomb.


And Thomas B. Cochran, director of the nuclear program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told the Times that the low-enriched uranium could be useful to a nation with nuclear ambitions.

"A country like Iran could convert that into weapons-grade material with a lot fewer centrifuges than would be required with natural uranium," he explained.
Luckily, Iraq didn't have even the small number of centrifuges necessary to get the job done.

Or did they?


The physicist tapped by Saddam to run his centrifuge program says that after the first Gulf War, the program was largely dismantled. But it wasn't destroyed.
In fact, according to what he wrote in his 2004 book, "The Bomb in My Garden," Dr. Mahdi Obeidi told U.S. interrogators: "Saddam kept funding the IAEC [Iraq Atomic Energy Commission] from 1991 ... until the war in 2003."
"I was developing the centrifuge for the weapons" right through 1997, he revealed.

And after that, Dr. Obeidi said, Saddam ordered him under penalty of death to keep the technology available to resume Iraq's nuke program at a moment's notice.

Dr. Obeidi said he buried "the full set of blueprints, designs - everything to restart the centrifuge program - along with some critical components of the centrifuge" under the garden of his Baghdad home.

"I had to maintain the program to the bitter end," he explained. All the while the Iraqi physicist was aware that he held the key to Saddam's continuing nuclear ambitions.
"The centrifuge is the single most dangerous piece of nuclear technology," Dr. Obeidi says in his book. "With advances in centrifuge technology, it is now possible to conceal a uranium enrichment program inside a single warehouse."

Consider: 500 tons of yellowcake stored at Saddam's old nuclear weapons plan, where he'd managed to partially enrich 1.8 tons. And the equipment and blueprints that could enrich enough uranium to make a bomb stored away for safekeeping. And all of it at the Iraqi dictator's disposal.

If the average American was aware of these undisputed facts, the debate over Iraq's weapons of mass destruction would have been decided long ago - in President Bush's favor.

One more detail that Mr. Wilson and his media backers don't like to discuss: There's a reason Niger was such a likely candidate for Saddam's uranium shopping spree.

Responding to the firestorm that erupted after Wilson's July 2003 column, Prime Minister Tony Blair told reporters:
"In case people should think that the whole idea of a link between Iraq and Niger was some invention, in the 1980s we know for sure that Iraq purchased round about 270 tons of uranium from Niger."


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


57 posted on 11/16/2005 9:29:15 AM PST by CHICAGOFARMER (concealed carry)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: PeoplesRepublicOfWashington
By demanding evidence on but one of 23 Congressionally-specified reasons for doing battle with Iraq (see Post 40), you publicly declare your shallowness and willingness to be duped by the anti-American Party (otherwise known as the Democrat Party).

Well, a slur on me aside, this thread is about WMD and where it went. Not the other issues. You may as well criticize the interviewer for failing to deal with the other issues as well. Is he also shallow nad willing to be duped by the anti-American Democrats?

Note that the 'Rats, with the eager assistance of their mainstream media subversives, have succeeded in moving the goalposts far beyond the endzone--outside the stadium in fact. As Post 40 suggests, look at the Congressional Resolution and you'll see there is no mention of stockpiles of WMD, but rather a focus on WMD programs. After the invasion evidence of programs was deemed to be insufficient--evidence of stockpiles was instead demanded. But no official justification for invading Iraq has ever included the existence of WMD stockpiles.

It is the evidence of active WMD programs that is lacking. Not ambiguous evidence like pesticide plants which Saddam was entitled to operate. But when we invaded, no one was saying Saddam had a few known pesticide plants that *might* be used for WMD.

This is why Americans raced out, following DHS-issued emergency instructions, and cleaned the entire country out of plastic sheeting and duct tape. That was to protect from actual WMD. Not from mere 'programs'. Our troops went into combat in Iraq in hot restrictive NBC suits. Those too were to protect from actual WMD, not from 'programs'.
58 posted on 11/16/2005 9:38:30 AM PST by George W. Bush
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: George W. Bush
From David Kay:

What have we found and what have we not found in the first 3 months of our work?

We have discovered dozens of WMD-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations during the inspections that began in late 2002. The discovery of these deliberate concealment efforts have come about both through the admissions of Iraqi scientists and officials concerning information they deliberately withheld and through physical evidence of equipment and activities that ISG has discovered that should have been declared to the UN. Let me just give you a few examples of these concealment efforts, some of which I will elaborate on later:

A clandestine network of laboratories and safehouses within the Iraqi Intelligence Service that contained equipment subject to UN monitoring and suitable for continuing CBW research.

A prison laboratory complex, possibly used in human testing of BW agents, that Iraqi officials working to prepare for UN inspections were explicitly ordered not to declare to the UN.

Reference strains of biological organisms concealed in a scientist's home, one of which can be used to produce biological weapons.

New research on BW-applicable agents, Brucella and Congo Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), and continuing work on ricin and aflatoxin were not declared to the UN.

Documents and equipment, hidden in scientists' homes, that would have been useful in resuming uranium enrichment by centrifuge and electromagnetic isotope separation (EMIS).

A line of UAVs not fully declared at an undeclared production facility and an admission that they had tested one of their declared UAVs out to a range of 500 km, 350 km beyond the permissible limit.

Continuing covert capability to manufacture fuel propellant useful only for prohibited SCUD variant missiles, a capability that was maintained at least until the end of 2001 and that cooperating Iraqi scientists have said they were told to conceal from the UN.

Plans and advanced design work for new long-range missiles with ranges up to at least 1000 km - well beyond the 150 km range limit imposed by the UN. Missiles of a 1000 km range would have allowed Iraq to threaten targets through out the Middle East, including Ankara, Cairo, and Abu Dhabi.

Clandestine attempts between late-1999 and 2002 to obtain from North Korea technology related to 1,300 km range ballistic missiles --probably the No Dong -- 300 km range anti-ship cruise missiles, and other prohibited military equipment.

In addition to the discovery of extensive concealment efforts, we have been faced with a systematic sanitization of documentary and computer evidence in a wide range of offices, laboratories, and companies suspected of WMD work. The pattern of these efforts to erase evidence - hard drives destroyed, specific files burned, equipment cleaned of all traces of use - are ones of deliberate, rather than random, acts. For example,
On 10 July 2003 an ISG team exploited the Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) Headquarters in Baghdad. The basement of the main building contained an archive of documents situated on well-organized rows of metal shelving. The basement suffered no fire damage despite the total destruction of the upper floors from coalition air strikes. Upon arrival the exploitation team encountered small piles of ash where individual documents or binders of documents were intentionally destroyed. Computer hard drives had been deliberately destroyed. Computers would have had financial value to a random looter; their destruction, rather than removal for resale or reuse, indicates a targeted effort to prevent Coalition forces from gaining access to their contents.

All IIS laboratories visited by IIS exploitation teams have been clearly sanitized, including removal of much equipment, shredding and burning of documents, and even the removal of nameplates from office doors.

Although much of the deliberate destruction and sanitization of documents and records probably occurred during the height of OIF combat operations, indications of significant continuing destruction efforts have been found after the end of major combat operations, including entry in May 2003 of the locked gated vaults of the Ba'ath party intelligence building in Baghdad and highly selective destruction of computer hard drives and data storage equipment along with the burning of a small number of specific binders that appear to have contained financial and intelligence records, and in July 2003 a site exploitation team at the Abu Ghurayb Prison found one pile of the smoldering ashes from documents that was still warm to the touch.

CIA
59 posted on 11/16/2005 9:52:50 AM PST by ravingnutter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: CHICAGOFARMER
Instead of relying on your beloved New York Times, a discredited source for almost anything, why not just look at one of the key national security intelligence reports from the time? They're now declassified, you know. That is, after all, what the flap is about. This is the basic info that the Senate Intelligence committee had. It's reported that the daily presidential briefings contain much more material.

From Federation Of American Scientists:


FAS Note: The following excerpts from an October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate were declassified on July 18, 2003 and presented at a White House background briefing on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Key Judgments [from October 2002 NIE]

Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction

We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade. (See INR alternative view at the end of these Key Judgments.)

We judge that we are seeing only a portion of Iraq's WMD efforts, owing to Baghdad's vigorous denial and deception efforts. Revelations after the Gulf war starkly demonstrate the extensive efforts undertaken by Iraq to deny information. We lack specific information on many key aspects of Iraq's WMD programs.

Since inspections ended in 1998, Iraq has maintained its chemical weapons effort, energized its missile program, and invested more heavily in biological weapons; in the view of most agencies, Baghdad is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program.

  • Iraq's growing ability to sell oil illicitly increases Baghdad's capabilities to finance WMD programs; annual earnings in cash and goods have more than quadrupled, from $580 million in 1998 to about $3 billion this year.

  • Iraq has largely rebuilt missile and biological weapons facilities damaged during Operation Desert Fox and has expanded its chemical and biological infrastructure under the cover of civilian production.

  • Baghdad has exceeded UN range limits of 150 km with its ballistic missiles and is working with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which allow for a more lethal means to deliver biological and, less likely, chemical warfare agents.

  • Although we assess that Saddam does not yet have nuclear weapons or sufficient material to make any, he remains intent on acquiring them. Most agencies assess that Baghdad started reconstituting its nuclear program about the time that UNSCOM inspectors departed--December 1998.

How quickly Iraq will obtain its first nuclear weapon depends on when it acquires sufficient weapons-grade fissile material.

  • If Baghdad acquires sufficient fissile material from abroad it could make a nuclear weapon within several months to a year.

  • Without such material from abroad, Iraq probably would not be able to make a weapon until 2007 to 2009, owing to inexperience in building and operating centrifuge facilities to produce highly enriched uranium and challenges in procuring the necessary equipment and expertise.

    • Most agencies believe that Saddam's personal interest in and Iraq's aggressive attempts to obtain high-strength aluminum tubes for centrifuge rotors--as well as Iraq's attempts to acquire magnets, high-speed balancing machines, and machine tools--provide compelling evidence that Saddam is reconstituting a uranium enrichment effort for Baghdad's nuclear weapons program. (DOE agrees that reconstitution of the nuclear program is underway but assesses that the tubes probably are not part of the program.)

    • Iraq's efforts to re-establish and enhance its cadre of weapons personnel as well as activities at several suspect nuclear sites further indicate that reconstitution is underway.

    • All agencies agree that about 25,000 centrifuges based on tubes of the size Iraq is trying to acquire would be capable of producing approximately two weapons' worth of highly enriched uranium per year.

  • In a much less likely scenario, Baghdad could make enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon by 2005 to 2007 if it obtains suitable centrifuge tubes this year and has all the other materials and technological expertise necessary to build production-scale uranium enrichment facilities.

We assess that Baghdad has begun renewed production of mustard, sarin, GF (cyclosarin), and VX; its capability probably is more limited now than it was at the time of the Gulf war, although VX production and agent storage life probably have been improved.

  • An array of clandestine reporting reveals that Baghdad has procured covertly the types and quantities of chemicals and equipment sufficient to allow limited CW agent production hidden within Iraq's legitimate chemical industry.

  • Although we have little specific information on Iraq's CW stockpile, Saddam probably has stocked at least 100 metric tons (MT) and possibly as much as 500 MT of CW agents--much of it added in the last year.

  • The Iraqis have experience in manufacturing CW bombs, artillery rockets, and projectiles. We assess that they possess CW bulk fills for SRBM warheads, including for a limited number of covertly stored Scuds, possibly a few with extended ranges.

We judge that all key aspects--R&D, production, and weaponization--of Iraq's offensive BW program are active and that most elements are larger and more advanced than they were before the Gulf war.

  • We judge Iraq has some lethal and incapacitating BW agents and is capable of quickly producing and weaponizing a variety of such agents, including anthrax, for delivery by bombs, missiles, aerial sprayers, and covert operatives.

    • Chances are even that smallpox is part of Iraq's offensive BW program.

    • Baghdad probably has developed genetically engineered BW agents.

  • Baghdad has established a large-scale, redundant, and concealed BW agent production capability.

    • Baghdad has mobile facilities for producing bacterial and toxin BW agents; these facilities can evade detection and are highly survivable. Within three to six months [Corrected per Errata sheet issued in October 2002] these units probably could produce an amount of agent equal to the total that Iraq produced in the years prior to the Gulf war.

Iraq maintains a small missile force and several development programs, including for a UAV probably intended to deliver biological warfare agent.

  • Gaps in Iraqi accounting to UNSCOM suggest that Saddam retains a covert force of up to a few dozen Scud-variant SRBMs with ranges of 650 to 900 km.

  • Iraq is deploying its new al-Samoud and Ababil-100 SRBMs, which are capable of flying beyond the UN-authorized 150-km range limit; Iraq has tested an al-Samoud variant beyond 150 km--perhaps as far as 300 km.

  • Baghdad's UAVs could threaten Iraq's neighbors, U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, and if brought close to, or into, the United States, the U.S. Homeland.

    • An Iraqi UAV procurement network attempted to procure commercially available route planning software and an associated topographic database that would be able to support targeting of the United States, according to analysis of special intelligence.

    • The Director, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance, U.S. Air Force, does not agree that Iraq is developing UAVs primarily intended to be delivery platforms for chemical and biological warfare (CBW) agents. The small size of Iraq's new UAV strongly suggests a primary role of reconnaissance, although CBW delivery is an inherent capability.

  • Iraq is developing medium-range ballistic missile capabilities, largely through foreign assistance in building specialized facilities, including a test stand for engines more powerful than those in its current missile force.

We have low confidence in our ability to assess when Saddam would use WMD.

  • Saddam could decide to use chemical and biological warfare (CBW) preemptively against U.S. forces, friends, and allies in the region in an attempt to disrupt U.S. war preparations and undermine the political will of the Coalition.

  • Saddam might use CBW after an initial advance into Iraqi territory, but early use of WMD could foreclose diplomatic options for stalling the US advance.

  • He probably would use CBW when be perceived he irretrievably had lost control of the military and security situation, but we are unlikely to know when Saddam reaches that point.

  • We judge that Saddam would be more likely to use chemical weapons than biological weapons on the battlefield.

  • Saddam historically has maintained tight control over the use of WMD; however, he probably has provided contingency instructions to his commanders to use CBW in specific circumstances.

Baghdad for now appears to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or CBW against the United States, fearing that exposure of Iraqi involvement would provide Washington a stronger cause for making war.

Iraq probably would attempt clandestine attacks against the U.S. Homeland if Baghdad feared an attack that threatened the survival of the regime were imminent or unavoidable, or possibly for revenge. Such attacks--more likely with biological than chemical agents--probably would be carried out by special forces or intelligence operatives.

  • The Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS) probably has been directed to conduct clandestine attacks against US and Allied interests in the Middle East in the event the United States takes action against Iraq. The US probably would be the primary means by which Iraq would attempt to conduct any CBW attacks on the US Homeland, although we have no specific intelligence information that Saddam's regime has directed attacks against US territory.

Saddam, if sufficiently desperate, might decide that only an organization such as al-Qa'ida--with worldwide reach and extensive terrorist infrastructure, and already engaged in a life-or-death struggle against the United States--could perpetrate the type of terrorist attack that he would hope to conduct.

  • In such circumstances, he might decide that the extreme step of assisting the Islamist terrorists in conducting a CBW attack against the United States would be his last chance to exact vengeance by taking a large number of victims with him.

State/INR Alternative View of Iraq's Nuclear Program

The Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research (INR) believes that Saddam continues to want nuclear weapons and that available evidence indicates that Baghdad is pursuing at least a limited effort to maintain and acquire nuclear weapons-related capabilities. The activities we have detected do not, however, add up to a compelling case that Iraq is currently pursuing what INR would consider to be an integrated and comprehensive approach to acquire nuclear weapons. Iraq may be doing so, but INR considers the available evidence inadequate to support such a judgment. Lacking persuasive evidence that Baghdad has launched a coherent effort to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program, INR is unwilling to speculate that such an effort began soon after the departure of UN inspectors or to project a timeline for the completion of activities it does not now see happening. As a result, INR is unable to predict when Iraq could acquire a nuclear device or weapon.

In INR's view Iraq's efforts to acquire aluminum tubes is central to the argument that Baghdad is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program, but INR is not persuaded that the tubes in question are intended for use as centrifuge rotors. INR accepts the judgment of technical experts at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) who have concluded that the tubes Iraq seeks to acquire are poorly suited for use in gas centrifuges to be used for uranium enrichment and finds unpersuasive the arguments advanced by others to make the case that they are intended for that purpose. INR considers it far more likely that the tubes are intended for another purpose, most likely the production of artillery rockets. The very large quantities being sought, the way the tubes were tested by the Iraqis, and the atypical lack of attention to operational security in the procurement efforts are among the factors, in addition to the DOE assessment, that lead INR to conclude that the tubes are not intended for use in Iraq's nuclear weapon program.

Confidence Levels for Selected Key Judgments in This Estimate

High Confidence:

  • Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding, its chemical, biological, nuclear and missile programs contrary to UN resolutions.

  • We are not detecting portions of these weapons programs.

  • Iraq possesses proscribed chemical and biological weapons and missiles.

  • Iraq could make a nuclear weapon in months to a year once it acquires sufficient weapons-grad fissile material

Moderate Confidence:

  • Iraq does not yet have a nuclear weapon or sufficient material to make one but is likely to have a weapon by 2007 to 2009. (See INR alternative view, page 84).

Low Confidence

  • When Saddam would use weapons of mass destruction.

  • Whether Saddam would engage in clandestine attacks against the US Homeland.

  • Whether in desperation Saddam would share chemical or biological weapons with al-Qa'ida.

[NIE page 24]

[...]

Uranium Acquisition. Iraq retains approximately two-and-a-half tons of 2.5 percent enriched uranium oxide, which the IAEA permits. This low-enriched material could be used as feed material to produce enough HEU for about two nuclear weapons. The use of enriched feed material also would reduce the initial number of centrifuges that Baghdad would need by about half. Iraq could divert this material -- the IAEA inspects it only once a year -- and enrich it to weapons grade before a subsequent inspection discovered it was missing. The IAEA last inspected this material in late January 2002.

Iraq has about 500 metric tons of yellowcake1 and low enriched uranium at Tuwaitha, which is inspected annually by the IAEA. Iraq also began vigorously trying to procure uranium ore and yellowcake; acquiring either would shorten the time Baghdad needs to produce nuclear weapons.

  • A foreign government service reported that as of early 2001, Niger planned to send several tons of "pure uranium" (probably yellowcake) to Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of yellowcake. We do not know the status of this arrangement.

  • Reports indicate Iraq also has sought uranium ore from Somalia and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

We cannot confirm whether Iraq succeeded in acquiring uranium ore and/or yellowcake from these sources. Reports suggest Iraq is shifting from domestic mining and milling of uranium to foreign acquisition. Iraq possesses significant phosphate deposits, from which uranium had been chemically extracted before Operation Desert Storm. Intelligence information on whether nuclear-related phosphate mining and/or processing has been reestablished is inconclusive, however.

    1 A refined form of natural uranium.

[...]

[NIE page 84]

Annex A
Iraq's Attempts to Acquire Aluminum Tubes

(This excerpt from a longer view includes INR's position on the African uranium issue)

INR's Alternative View: Iraq's Attempts to Acquire Aluminum Tubes

Some of the specialized but dual-use items being sought are, by all indications, bound for Iraq's missile program. Other cases are ambiguous, such as that of a planned magnet-production line whose suitability for centrifuge operations remains unknown. Some efforts involve non-controlled industrial material and equipment -- including a variety of machine tools -- and are troubling because they would help establish the infrastructure for a renewed nuclear program. But such efforts (which began well before the inspectors departed) are not clearly linked to a nuclear end-use. Finally, the claims of Iraqi pursuit of natural uranium in Africa are, in INR's assessment, highly dubious.



60 posted on 11/16/2005 10:01:24 AM PST by George W. Bush
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 57 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 121-139 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson