Posted on 11/18/2005 8:52:20 AM PST by laz
000 WONT41 KNHC 181400 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
Can the season go into overtime?
What about the playoffs?
November named storms haven't been a stranger to the Atlantic Basin, however. Last year, Tropical Storm Otto flared in the open Atlantic Ocean the last day of November. A pair of tropical storms, Odette and Peter, spun up in early December 2003. U.S. hurricane landfalls in November, thankfully, are very rare. Since 1861, only four U.S. November hurricane landfalls have occurred, most recently 20 years ago when Category Two Hurricane Kate struck near Apalachicola, Fla. This was the only November U. S. hurricane landfall in the last 70 years.
Ha! That's a good one
Looks like TD 27 was a false alarm and this might be the real thing. I just checked the visible floater, and it certainly looks like rotation has formed. And the IR shows quite a bit of convection. If it develops and moves north, it could pass through the Yucatan Channel and into the GOM, then get recurved toward Florida.
Just great.....
I took down my storm shutters for the ZILLIONTH time this season.
This actually is TD 27.
Say hello to Tropical Storm Gamma...heads up Florida...again.
sh**!
...Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven re-generates...becomes Tropical Storm Gamma...
at 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...the government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of Belize. The government of Honduras has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from the Belize-Mexico border northward to Punta Allen. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Gamma.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 3 PM CST...2100z...the broad and poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 16.4 north... longitude 85.6 west or about 40 miles... 65 km...north of Limon Honduras and about 190 miles... 300 km...east-southeast of Belize City Belize.
Gamma is moving erratically toward the west-northwest near 5 mph ... 7 km/hr. This general motion should continue for the next 24 hours...although some erratic motion is possible as the center re-forms.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km to the north of the center. The government of Honduras has reported that tropical storm-force winds have been observed in the Western Bay islands of Honduras.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Tropical Storm Gamma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Belize...western Cuba...and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible over northwestern Honduras.
Repeating the 4 PM EST position...16.4 N... 85.6 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 PM EST followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM EST.
Forecaster Beven
you've gotta be kidding me.
Oh geez! They finally picked up the Wilma debree this morning from in front of my house. My lawn guy has been working on my yard for the last two days...the new palm was just planted yesterday!
If I hadn't posted it myself, I would have thought it was a sick joke.
Thanks for the ping.
I emailed my sister about this yesterday. She lives in northwestern mountains of Honduras, and yesterday they were warning Honduras and Nicaragua about heavy rains and possible mudslides.
In my wildest dreams, I never thought it might turn toward Florida.
We still ove you NautiNurse!
One last encore for the neverending story.
No. No more. Between Wilma, Rita, Katrina, and the Kentucky tornadoes from Tuesday of this week, Mother Nature obviously hates my family.
That's it, this baby is getting named Hurricane.
How about one of the actual names? Katrina? Wilma?
Yeah, they got the Wilma debris picked up from in front of my house just about 2 hours ago! I'm not much inclined to put my shutters back up either.
I wonder what the ocean temps. are now.
You might want to consider naming it "Global Warming". ;^) /
I am series, and don't call me Shirley :-P
Why couldn't Gorelick have kept her big yap shut?
Not good at all
AGNTSA!
Thanks for the ping.
We still have a pile of shingles sitting at the curb from Wilma, and this thing appears to be heading right at us. I sure hope the patches on the roof hold up.
I'm getting tired of my predictions coming true. I predicted Wilma would hit around Marco Island at Cat 3, and she did. I predicted we'd reach Gamma, and we have. Maybe I should predict Gamma will dissipate before ever reaching the GOM. Better yet, maybe I should predict there'll be no storms next year. ;)
I see NHC's track has its path across Florida just a little bit south of Wilma's track. Wonderful. At least they show it as a TS for the entire track... but their original intensity forecast for Wilma underestimated her.
I really don't give a f-ck anymore. I'm flying down to visit the parents in Boca for a week.
Most of mine are still up. I feel like I am living in a cave.
I was a bit afraid to click that link. I was expecting to see something in a toilet.
The Wilma debris on my street got picked up yesterday and Wednesday. And I got a visit from two FEMA guys yesterday about my roof. I lost about 75% of my shingles during Wilma, and my insurance company is so busy it took me over a week to get through to them. They told me they're too busy to send an inspector, and they instructed me to take photos of the damage and find a contractor to fix the roof and they'll pay for it. Finding a contractor right now is easier said than done, though. Everyone's incredibly busy. A friend of my aunt is a roofer, and he took time out to look at the roof last week. He told me it'll probably leak if there's a heavy rain.
So I went and applied for the Blue Roof program and signed the ROE. The guys from FEMA showed up yesterday and looked at the roof and agreed it'll probably leak, and they told me the engineers will be here in a few days to put on the tarp. Hopefully, I'll have the tarp before Gamma gets here.
Actually, the remnants of TD 27, which they were forecasting would merge with the larger low east of Nicaragua. I wasn't sure whether they'd give it a new designation. Looks like they kept it TD 27, which re-energized into Gamma.
Same here. I'm so happy right about now that we got accordian shutters. But, we just contracted with someone to come and do landscaping. Maybe we'd better wait a couple more months!
susie
What a wild ride this season has been.........SHEESH
I have an Aunt Wilma. She's in her 90s and still lives alone and about 5 years ago, she broke her arm. She fell off her roof fixing something. I think it's a great name!
susie
I'm not all that smart. Are those temps still warm enough to rev this baby up?
susie
Boca will still be here. And I gotta say, they got the debris up really quickly after Wilma. Can't have any old debris hanging around making Boca ugly!
susie
The forecast track indicates the storm will be moving very quickly once it makes the hairpin turn toward FL Sunday--too fast to gain much strength. Expected to remain a TS through FL landfall.
Not this ....again! Local Orlando news says it could be a minimal hurricane before hitting land. The news shows it being at 65mph Mon. at 1pm.
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