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The Singularity Is Near
http://singularity.com ^ | September 22, 2005 | Ray Kurzweil

Posted on 11/19/2005 11:34:03 AM PST by Momaw Nadon

At the onset of the twenty-first century, humanity stands on the verge of the most transforming and the most thrilling period in its history. It will be an era in which the very nature of what it means to be human will be both enriched and challenged, as our species breaks the shackles of its genetic legacy and achieves inconceivable heights of intelligence, material progress, and longevity.

For over three decades, the great inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has been one of the most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his classic The Age of Spiritual Machines, he presented the daring argument that with the ever-accelerating rate of technological change, computers would rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now, in The Singularity Is Near, he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our own creations.

That merging is the essence of the Singularity, an era in which our intelligence will become increasingly nonbiological and trillions of times more powerful than it is today—the dawning of a new civilization that will enable us to transcend our biological limitations and amplify our creativity. In this new world, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine, real reality and virtual reality. We will be able to assume different bodies and take on a range of personae at will. In practical terms, human aging and illness will be reversed; pollution will be stopped; world hunger and poverty will be solved. Nanotechnology will make it possible to create virtually any physical product using inexpensive information processes and will ultimately turn even death into a soluble problem.

While the social and philosophical ramifications of these changes will be profound, and the threats they pose considerable, The Singularity Is Near maintains a radically optimistic view of the future course of human development. As such, it offers a view of the coming age that is both a dramatic culmination of centuries of technological ingenuity and a genuinely inspiring vision of our ultimate destiny.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: ai; borg; computer; cyborg; evolution; evolutionary; exponentialgrowth; fiction; future; futurist; genetics; gnr; humanity; intelligence; knowledge; kurzweil; longevity; look4god; lostandconfused; luddite; machine; mind; nanotechnology; nonbiological; raykurzweil; reaching; robot; robotics; science; singularity; singularityisnear; spike; technology; thesingularityisnear; transhuman; transhumanism; trend; virtualreality; wearetheborg; wrongway
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To: inquest
Momaw Nadon: First, I must say that humans or sentient robots will never be God.

inquest: Which is why they shouldn't try to play the part.

Momaw Nadon: Is it wrong to want to rid the world of disease and hunger? Is it wrong to want to put an end to human suffering? Is it wrong to want to live forever (or as long as we want to?

inquest: There's nothing wrong with wanting any of these things. Playing God in order to achieve them, on the other hand, is another matter.

King Prout: ah. so you ARE against medicine, high-efficiency food production, labor-saving technology, and any means of extending life. On religious grounds. In other words: A Luddite. very good: nice to know where an opponent stands.

inquest: Ah, so you CAN'T read. Good: nice to know when I don't even have to waste time with an opponent.

Before I bother to parse your posts in this subset of this thread, I will flatly state that I can read very well, and that the evidence provided above fully supports that assertion.

121 posted on 11/19/2005 5:44:09 PM PST by King Prout (many accuse me of being overly literal... this would not be a problem if many were not under-precise)
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To: King Prout
I will flatly state that I can read very well, and that the evidence provided above fully supports that assertion.

Fine by me if you want to write sentences like the one above that contradict themselves.

122 posted on 11/19/2005 5:51:38 PM PST by inquest (FTAA delenda est)
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To: Momaw Nadon

"I think it a point very certain, that
tho' the sober belief of good and bad spirits
is an essential part of every good Christian's faith,
yet imaginary communications with them, have been the
spring both of the worst corruptions of religion, and
the greatest perversions of justice. How many
miserable creatures have been hang'd or burnt as witches
and wizzards in other countries, and former ages?"

"An Historical Essay Concerning Witchcraft" 1720 by Francis Hutchinson, 1661-1739


123 posted on 11/19/2005 6:14:23 PM PST by PaxMacian
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To: inquest
ah... it seems I must now parse your posts. very well.

to recapitulate:

Momaw Nadon: First, I must say that humans or sentient robots will never be God.

inquest: Which is why they shouldn't try to play the part.

Momaw Nadon: Is it wrong to want to rid the world of disease and hunger? Is it wrong to want to put an end to human suffering? Is it wrong to want to live forever (or as long as we want to?

inquest: There's nothing wrong with wanting any of these things. Playing God in order to achieve them, on the other hand, is another matter.

King Prout: ah. so you ARE against medicine, high-efficiency food production, labor-saving technology, and any means of extending life. On religious grounds. In other words: A Luddite. very good: nice to know where an opponent stands.

inquest: Ah, so you CAN'T read. Good: nice to know when I don't even have to waste time with an opponent.

so:
inquest: There's nothing wrong with wanting any of these things. Playing God in order to achieve them, on the other hand, is another matter.
-becomes-
inquest: There's nothing wrong with wanting to rid the world of disease and hunger, to put an end to human suffering, or to live forever (or as long as we want to). Playing God in order to achieve ridding the world of disease and hunger, putting an end to human suffering, or living forever (or as long as we want to), on the other hand, is another matter.
-becomes-
inquest: There's nothing wrong with wanting to rid the world of disease and hunger, to put an end to human suffering, or to live forever (or as long as we want to). Playing God in order to achieve ridding the world of disease and hunger, putting an end to human suffering, or living forever (or as long as we want to), on the other hand, is NOT "nothing wrong".
-becomes-
inquest: There's nothing wrong with wanting to rid the world of disease and hunger, to put an end to human suffering, or to live forever (or as long as we want to). Playing God in order to achieve ridding the world of disease and hunger, putting an end to human suffering, or living forever (or as long as we want to), on the other hand, is wrong.

So...
As you have not yet defined what you consider "playing God", and are posting your opposition on a thread concerning technological modification of natural systems and limitations, the operational assumption a reader must make is that you consider doing ANYTHING which contravenes God's will (as expressed Biblically or in the natural order) in pursuit of the abovementioned objectives is wrong.

As this category of human endeavor includes medicine (particularly: gene-therapy, gene surgery, cybernetic prostheses, pharmacology, antibiotics, innoculation and vaccination, and corrective surgery, among others), cultivation and animal husbandry (particularly: genetic engineering of plants and animals, more conventional breeding programs, land-clearing, and strain-controlled cropping, among others), any and all environment control and labor-saving devices (covering technology all the way from powered closed environments through metallurgy and ceramics and other manufactured-materials technologies all the way down to the humble wedge, lever, and hammerstone), and -now- all artificial means of life-extension (from so-called "medical immortality" to such mundane things as CPR), the only conclusion which can be drawn from what you have posted is that you are a raving Luddite.

Now, had you instead said something along the lines of the following:
"Given the fact of human inability to comprehend more than the slightest and most proximal and obvious parts of the webs of causation and effect, for every human decision there shall always be more unintended consequences than intended or foreseen consequences. It would thus be unwise to widely implement, willy-nilly, technological innovations which fundamentally alter the basic factors of human life without pausing for serious consideration of the balance of net worth versus possible risks and overall importance of benefits versus losses."
I would not have taken you to task. I agree with such a sentiment.

However... you did NOT make such a statement. You instead harped on superstitious dread.

124 posted on 11/19/2005 6:21:03 PM PST by King Prout (many accuse me of being overly literal... this would not be a problem if many were not under-precise)
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To: King Prout
As you have not yet defined what you consider "playing God"

Actually, I did. If you're going to jump into an exchange making wild comments, it might help to at least follow it back a few posts first.

125 posted on 11/19/2005 6:27:11 PM PST by inquest (FTAA delenda est)
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To: inquest
Redefining "the very nature of what it means to be human", as per your introductory comments.

you call THAT a definition?

moving from nomadic life to agricultural life fits that bill... do you call that "playing God"?

126 posted on 11/19/2005 6:40:11 PM PST by King Prout (many accuse me of being overly literal... this would not be a problem if many were not under-precise)
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To: King Prout
moving from nomadic life to agricultural life fits that bill...

Uh, not quite. I'm pretty sure what the writer was saying is this: The "nature of what it means to be human", despite whatver variation in experience there's been over the centuries and over the globe, has always had some fundamental commonality of meaning - and that meaning's about to be radically changed.

Honestly, I don't know what it is you're trying to prove here. You largely don't even disagree with what I'm saying. Apparently you just have some sort of problem with the way I'm saying it. It's kind of a bizarre hangup.

127 posted on 11/19/2005 6:48:33 PM PST by inquest (FTAA delenda est)
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To: inquest

the only way to "change what it means to be human" in a manner which is distinctly different from the way technological innovation has always "changed what it means to be human" would be to substantially alter the human mind.

not the memory capacity, not the calculation speed, not the auxiliary assets: the mind itself.

The human mind is a mix of personality, reason, emotion, learned habit, and instinct. All hype aside, I don't see technology making any impact on any of the above any time in the forseeable future - with the faint possibility that technology will be used to either temprarily or permanently bypass the limbic system. Some might think that desirable. I suspect the unintended consequences would prove fatal to the modified organism.


128 posted on 11/19/2005 7:01:17 PM PST by King Prout (many accuse me of being overly literal... this would not be a problem if many were not under-precise)
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To: King Prout
The human mind is a mix of personality, reason, emotion, learned habit, and instinct.

All those things are already the target of mind-altering drugs (Ritalin, for example). If electronic modification starts to move in on those areas (first for the purpose of repairing damage or dealing with "psychological conditions"), that would only move us further down that road.

Also, if electronic modifications of the brain start to connect people into some kind of collective consciousness, would that also not alter the fundamental nature of being human?

129 posted on 11/19/2005 7:09:51 PM PST by inquest (FTAA delenda est)
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To: Momaw Nadon
One of the more informative reviews at Amazon:

   "Repent! The End is Near!"

If I saw a person holding up this sign on a street corner, I might think, "Poor fellow. Where has his mind gone? Too bad there are crazy people like this in the world."

Yet, in Ray Kurzweil's book "Singularity," his message is even more far out, but more like,
"Get Ready! The Beginning is Near!"

And yet, with Kurzweil, my response is, "Okay, I understand so far. Tell me more." Then I see the data. Then I see his inexorable logic. I would bet a lot of money on his predictions.

"Singularity" is the most startling book I have ever read in my life (and I have read a lot of great books).

Well before the year 2030 (within 25 years), if you are still alive, you will have the choice about whether or not you want to "live forever" (in THIS reality; not some "afterlife").

Well before 2030, there will be a computer that, by all measures, will be smarter than the smartest "regular human" (i.e. non-computer-enhanced human) on this earth. This computer will then be able to invent an even smarter computer, which will then be able to invent an even smarter computer, which....

The changes in the next 14 years will be as much or more than the changes since 1955 (the last 50 years). And double again. And double again. And double again....we are fast approaching the asymptotic infinity of change and "progress"!

And there is basically nothing we can do about it. It will happen whether we like it or not (and most of us will end up liking it).
We can "manage" it to some extent in order to provide a measure of protection against the end-of-the-world scenarios that could arise, either accidentally or intentionally, out of this run-away progress.

In his close-to-700-page manifesto, this is the essence of our future that Ray Kurzweil paints for us.

As an author myself ("Courage: the Choice that Makes the Difference-Your Key to a Thousand Doors"), I have a deep respect for what it takes to write a great book. The only other author that comes to mind whose breadth of knowledge and wisdom would compare with Kurzweil is philosopher Ken Wilber (although their writings are quite dissimilar).
In reading Kurzweil I am continually amazed by the breadth and depth of his insights and conclusions.

There is one issue that he addresses from many perspectives (will computers become conscious? - his answer is "yes") that I cannot get my mind around.
Even though his logic makes "sense" to me, I still can't quite accept it.

However, that is not a big issue for me (as it might be for others), since, for all intents and purposes, I can totally accept that computers will be able to APPEAR as fully human (should they "choose" to do so).

I noticed that some of the other reviewers of "Singularity" have faulted Kurzweil for his optimism. Although I can see their point, I think that neither optimism nor pessimism is most appropriate here.
Obviously we are facing an eventuality that holds the possibility of both the greatest promise as well as the greatest peril.
Creativity, intelligence, and courage are our best tools at this unprecedented time in the history of our solar system.

I give "Singularity" five stars. It ranks that based solely upon the "wake up call" it is for humanity.

Dwight GoldWinde
130 posted on 11/19/2005 7:17:12 PM PST by don asmussen
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To: inquest

Ritalin et alia add no capabilities - they are essentially (usually reversable) chemical lobotomies.

I don't like the way they are being used - in a state-sanctioned attempt to alter what it means to be a normal boy.

you have a point here.

I don't see how adding capabilities will alter the human mind, but I certainly admit that crippling it (via chemicals or electronics) surely can.

I don't believe "shared thoughts" will ever work. If it does, and if it leads to dilution of individuality, then this also will be a substantive alteration in the human mind.

point there, as well.
but that part really seems to be pure hype.


131 posted on 11/19/2005 7:23:16 PM PST by King Prout (many accuse me of being overly literal... this would not be a problem if many were not under-precise)
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To: King Prout
Ritalin et alia add no capabilities

I suppose that depends on whom you talk to. I've talked people who've said they were given it as kids, and it made them very focused and attentive, and able and willing to learn what they were being taught. It doesn't just sedate them.

I don't believe "shared thoughts" will ever work.

One thing that's already been developed is the ability to use thoughts to control the movement of a cursor on a screen (via EEG technology, mostly), and progress is being made on more complicated operations. And if thoughts can be used to electronically influence the outside world, how long before the reverse can be true? How long before some form of stimulation can directly engender thoughts within a person's mind?

132 posted on 11/19/2005 7:34:24 PM PST by inquest (FTAA delenda est)
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To: inquest

using thoughts and using re-routed motor nerve impulses or electro-encephalographic modulations are not the same thing.

there will have to be one hella MODEM for two brains to be able to directly communicate as if they were one brain with one united conscious synthesis.

As it seems quite possible that a substantially different MODEM would be required for each such link, I don't see tech cracking this nut.

any lesser communication would be nothing more or less than a novel source of stimulus or data for the mind to integrate into the individual conscious synthesis.


133 posted on 11/19/2005 7:41:51 PM PST by King Prout (many accuse me of being overly literal... this would not be a problem if many were not under-precise)
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To: Momaw Nadon

In very basic terms, evil.

Satan will someday mislead humans into believing "the lie".

I believe that "lie" will be the same as was in the Garden of Eden. That we, humans, can be like God. It is a very tempting proposition.

We were created to be creative. I have no problem with man demonstrating this capacity. I only have a problem with man thinking and believing that he CAN be like God.

That way lies the danger.


134 posted on 11/19/2005 8:52:53 PM PST by TruthConquers (Delenda est publius schola)
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To: Maceman

Hey! Hey! I used to have a Moog.


135 posted on 11/19/2005 10:49:19 PM PST by Jo Nuvark (The Koolaid can easily be avoided. It is RED!)
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To: Musket

Cool. He makes a great synth. Amazing how far we've come since the 70's.


136 posted on 11/19/2005 10:50:39 PM PST by Jo Nuvark (The Koolaid can easily be avoided. It is RED!)
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To: inquest
You're still not seeing the distinction. This isn't about what God supposedly intended. Playing God is something completely different. Even an atheist would be able to understand the problem with that.

I'm an atheist, and this is my question:

What if we create something we cannot get rid of?

137 posted on 11/20/2005 2:24:45 AM PST by Sir Francis Dashwood (LET'S ROLL!)
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To: inquest
No, I agree with Kurzweil, the only thing that can forestall the Singularity is a worldwide totalitarian dictatorship.

And you have absolutely nothing to back that up except your own bare assertions.

OK, I'll pose the question to you:

What, if anything, can stop exponential technological advances which will lead to the Singularity?

138 posted on 11/20/2005 4:16:46 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: TruthConquers
"We were created to be creative. I have no problem with man demonstrating this capacity. I only have a problem with man thinking and believing that he CAN be like God."

We [humans], can already fly, cure diseases and do many things that ancient people would consider "godlike".

At what point do we cross the threshold from being human to being "like God"?

I will also add this from my post #67:

First, I must say that humans or sentient robots will never be God. God is infinite perfection. The most we can do is advance ourselves to previously unimaginable heights. We can never be infinitely perfect.

139 posted on 11/20/2005 4:30:31 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: mrsmith
the most dangerous of all - the unlimited capability for mindless self gratification (wireheading)

Most people would want to go that route, if given the choice. Hedonism is quite trendy right now because of its "back to nature" connotations; there's a lot of nostaglia for the days when Otzi the Caveman did nothing but sleep, have sex, frolic, and eat.

On the other hand, it's hard to argue that we have any "core" that can be separated from our own physical body. Ask anyone who's ever had PMS or been on antidepressants.

I think we better make our minds up on what we value, and quickly. Not knowing what the hell we want is a sure recipe for failure.
140 posted on 11/20/2005 4:46:26 AM PST by Seamoth
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