China: 77 Avian Flu Patients Dead in Liaoning Province...Victim's Name Published on Internet

Daily China ^ | 11/21/05

[bitt]

TLR - finest work.

[Dog Gone]

A slow rate in the spread of infection is the best possible case. If it's slow enough, a pandemic can be controlled, perhaps even prevented.

If it's highly contagious, we're going to be in a world of hurt.

[television is just wrong]

they live with their chickens and catch the stuff.

[television is just wrong]

lol clicked onthat article. it is all in chinese...

[fatima]

Thank you TigerLikesRooster.

[2ndreconmarine]

A slow rate in the spread of infection is the best possible case. If it's slow enough, a pandemic can be controlled, perhaps even prevented. If it's highly contagious, we're going to be in a world of hurt.

That is precisely correct.

[Palladin]

What saint do we pray to, to keep this plague away?

[Judith Anne]

I have a reservation about your conclusion...For one thing, there are unusual cases of diseases spreading for instance in India...tests are done on a few people, antigens to possible pathogens are found, and the whole thing is chalked up to the first positive pathogen without further testing. (See, Erode, India for a shocking story.)

We have no way to discover the rate of speed of the spread, if H5N1 goes pandemic (or HAS gone pandemic). Big outbreaks of Japanese encephalitis or dengue or Coxsackie-B viruses are happening in the far east, with no actual certainty (except a few positive pathogen tests) that is what's happening.

For example: I have polio antibodies in my system, along with measles, mumps, and rubella since I have HAD all these illnesses. If I get a rash, and the doctor tests for measles and finds antibodies, he might conclude I have measles and ignore the possibility of an allergic reaction. See what I mean?

People in the far east may have had subclinical or mild viral infections and recovered from then, but test positive, while the real cause of the illness might be H5N1, with no accessible antibody formation yet...(forms first deep in the lungs, iirc).

Japanese encephalitis outbreaks are being diagnosed in some areas with no lumbar puncture, because "it" looks like Japanese encephalitis.

In some of these underdiagnosed outbreaks, the mortality rate is substantial. If even some of these outbreaks (which have similar clinical features to H5N1) ARE avian flu, the slow spread is already happening and we are substantially lower than 280+ days toward that first billion.........

[Judith Anne]

PS, I think ProMed is asking a number of locations for firmer diagnoses....

[Dog Gone]

I think the conclusion is correct. If it's slowly spreading, that's good.

What you're saying is that is that it could spread more quickly and remain undetected for some time. While that's true, and while that would be bad, that's a different premise.

[Walkingfeather]

can you document that story>?

[Judith Anne]

What you're saying is that is that it could spread more quickly and remain undetected for some time.

Or even spread slowly, and remain undetected for some time.

[genefromjersey]

Which story ? The translation ? I didn't post it, and am not sure where rooster gets his Boxun edition.

[Domestic Church]

"I'm shocked, and speechless. The implications are staggering."


I'm not shocked...but the implications are beyond staggering. We're dealing with a Machiavellian communist country and this might be more than just the nasty avian flu we've been watching. At high levels in China, in private this will be viewed differently. It will be seen as setting a stage.


If China loses half it's population it will still thrive, but we would be hurt very badly if we lost one third.

[Judith Anne]

...this might be more than just the nasty avian flu we've been watching.

I don't think so, just remembering back to the initial outbreak of H5N1 in (iirc) 1997 in Hong Kong, when 18 people caught the disease and 6 died. And ALL, every chicken in Hong Kong, no exceptions, was killed.

I think it was likely in the wild bird population at that time, in small numbers, and that's how the initial human cases occurred-- wild birds to chickens to people. That's only a guess, but it's my best guess. Considering the Great Plague, volcanos, tsunamis, hurricanes, 1918 flu, blizzards, earthquakes, and all the other acts of nature that humans are subject to, the possibility that this is entirely natural seems most likely to me.

I cannot help thinking that if China has cooked this up to alter the demographics of the world, they've done a piss-poor job of it.

[Domestic Church]

China didn't cook it up but the government and military will recognize it as a brute force that can be utilized on certain levels. The left always respects brute force as a favorite tool, it is a modus operandi for achieving their goals.

[Judith Anne]

I finally understood what you were getting at. Yes, I agree. Sorry I'm so thick.