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Polls show Canada headed for minority government
Reuters ^ | 12/3/05 | Robert Melnbardis

Posted on 12/03/2005 9:52:03 AM PST by LdSentinal

MONTREAL (Reuters) - Canada is heading for another minority government, even though most voters want the winning party to take a majority of parliamentary seats in next month's national election, according to polls published on Saturday.

The Liberals under Prime Minister Paul Martin have the support of 33 percent of voters, while the Conservatives, headed by Stephen Harper, are at 31 percent, according to an Ipsos-Reid survey published in the National Post.

The left-leaning New Democratic Party is supported by 17 percent of voters.

The Ipsos-Reid survey found that 65 percent of Canadian voters would prefer a majority government, while 32 percent favor the prospect of a minority.

The Liberal minority was defeated on Monday in a no-confidence vote carried by the three opposition parties in the House of Commons.

A political party generally needs at least 40 percent popular support to win a majority in Canada's Parliament.

In power in Ottawa since 1993, the Liberals took a majority of House of Commons seats in the 2000 election when they won 40.8 percent of the popular vote. They slipped to a minority government in the June 2004 election while picking up only 36.7 percent support.

Dogged by a scandal over government advertising funds paid to Liberal friendly firms in Quebec for little or no work, voter support for the Liberals has eroded further.

A poll by Ekos Research published in the Toronto Star and Montreal's La Presse newspapers on Saturday had support for the Liberals at 34 percent, 5 percentage points lower than the previous week. It put the Conservatives at 27 percent, down two points for a week earlier.

The New Democrats were at 18 percent in the Ekos poll, up 1 point.

"Even if Stephen Harper and the Conservatives made headlines in the first week of the campaign, there is no indication that this brought them votes," Frank Graves, president of Ekos, told La Presse

But the next public opinion poll may indicate whether Harper's promise on Thursday to cut Canada's 7 percent valued-added consumption tax on goods and services, a levy little loved by consumers, will boost his popularity with Canadian voters, added Paul Adams, vice-president at Ekos.

"The race is too tight to pick a winner," Adams said.

In Quebec, the separatist Bloc Quebecois, which fields candidates only in that province of 7.4 million, continues to dominate the Liberals in popular support.

The Ekos poll put support for the Bloc at 58 percent in Quebec, compared with 21 percent for the Liberals and 11 percent for the Conservatives. The mainly French-speaking province, along with Ontario and its population of 12.5 million, will be key in deciding the election.

The Ekos poll surveyed 1,308 Canadians across the country November 28 to December 1 and has a margin of error of 2.7 points, 19 times out of 20. The Ipsos-Reid poll surveyed 2,450 Canadians from Tuesday, when the campaign began, to Thursday. it has a margin of error of 2 points.


TOPICS: Canada; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; canada; canadianelection; conservatives; elections; harper; poll

1 posted on 12/03/2005 9:52:04 AM PST by LdSentinal
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To: LdSentinal
A political party generally needs at least 40 percent popular support to win a majority in Canada's Parliament.

What is that, the metric system or something? How does a party get to run the show as the minority. Oh, wait......

2 posted on 12/03/2005 10:00:21 AM PST by kerryusama04 (The Bill of Rights is not occupation specific.)
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To: LdSentinal
..watching the post "no confidence" vote news conferences on C-Span was very interesting.

It has been charged that Mr. Harper has an angry man image to overcome. The man I saw last week was positive and upbeat, but not running away from pointing out that the Liberals are ruining Canada. You can do both and be successful--a page out of Ronald Wilson Reagan.

3 posted on 12/03/2005 10:16:53 AM PST by WalterSkinner
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: LdSentinal

Canadians need to get a grip (and jetison the lower part of Quebec).


5 posted on 12/03/2005 10:22:04 AM PST by Paladin2 (If the political indictment's from Fitz, the jury always acquits.)
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: kerryusama04

First past the post + parliamentary system = 40% of the vote for a majority government - usually.

You win a riding by winning the most votes in that riding. The party that wins the most ridings usually gets first crack at forming the government. If that party won less than a majority of ridings, it usually can't form the government on its own (unless the Governor General lets them try it until they lose a big vote, the government falls and new elections are held).


7 posted on 12/03/2005 10:32:03 AM PST by conservative in nyc
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To: William Creel
..not happy, but positive about the future with a vision for needed change.

The angry candidate attracts less support than the upbeat--ask Mr. Buchanan.

8 posted on 12/03/2005 10:40:42 AM PST by WalterSkinner
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Comment #9 Removed by Moderator

To: kerryusama04
What is that, the metric system or something? How does a party get to run the show as the minority. Oh, wait......

Well thats because canada has a superior political system dotcha know...........
10 posted on 12/03/2005 10:52:53 AM PST by festus (The constitution may be flawed but its a whole lot better than what we have now.)
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To: William Creel

"why are the Canadians so hateful of the BQ?"

cos canadians feels they are seperatists...i consider them ( BQ ) realists.


11 posted on 12/03/2005 10:55:01 AM PST by kajingawd (" happy with stone underhead, let Heaven and Earth go about their changes")
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To: William Creel
The only partnership I can see is BQ/Torie, or NDP/Liberal, why are the Canadians so hateful of the BQ?

Out of curiosity are you Canadian or do you just have a strong interest in their politics ?

Most freepers, self included, would have a hard time explaining the differences in the groups you named above much less the partnerships.
12 posted on 12/03/2005 10:57:41 AM PST by festus (The constitution may be flawed but its a whole lot better than what we have now.)
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To: William Creel
What is see in Germany with Merkel is a swing slightly back toward the conservative side of things.

But nobody can argue with your point about people loving to hear the smooth words, no matter how deceitful.

13 posted on 12/03/2005 10:58:49 AM PST by WalterSkinner
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To: WalterSkinner

correction , ..What I see in Germany...


14 posted on 12/03/2005 11:02:51 AM PST by WalterSkinner
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To: William Creel

"Ok, but why should anyone in Canada be happy, it's natural to be happy, especially when you keep on getting the shaft."

Canadians are very happy, bout 80% of Canadians have been lulled in a false sense of security , somewhat. Free healthcare( FREE???), and a welfare system, that, for the most part, is an enabler being sucked on by the glutons that we are. The states are right down there...WHAT ME WORRY??. We're just, pretty much keepin keeping on, just strolling ...in a daze.

Do you guys notice how energized and patriotic other countries are when it comes to elect a new Gov't??? In Canada, and in the states, we ( people ) just wait...wait for it all while the big wigs buy their times to entertain themselves while we( people ) have our minds made up on who we follow and who we vote for.

We need a revolution, in north america, full blown.


15 posted on 12/03/2005 11:04:54 AM PST by kajingawd (" happy with stone underhead, let Heaven and Earth go about their changes")
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To: kajingawd

The BQ are not realists. They want separation with privileges - like continued subsidization of their economy by the ROC. Realists also would recognize that less than 7 million francophones surrounded by 300 million anglophones are still going to have to learn English to survive economically.


16 posted on 12/03/2005 3:22:51 PM PST by instantgratification
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To: instantgratification

"...7 million francophones surrounded by 300 million anglophones are still going to have to learn English to survive economically"

it's more like 30 million.
And we francophones outside quebec have learned and applied english...
Still doesnt change the fact that Quebec is becoming , once again more separatist than unionist.


17 posted on 12/03/2005 4:45:59 PM PST by kajingawd (" happy with stone underhead, let Heaven and Earth go about their changes")
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To: LdSentinal
Its a dead heat. And barring a big break in the polls one way or the other - it looks like the Liberals will be returned to power in January.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

18 posted on 12/03/2005 4:47:57 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: WalterSkinner

The Conservatives suffer from the double standard. Its in overdrive and so blatant even non-political folks see it and take it for granted. The Toronto Star doesn't even hide its bias. Globe and Mail turns on the bias overdrive during elections. The National Post since the Aspers bought it isn't reliable like it once was. The Toronto Sun is on our side 100% and even I'm embarrasses how much they tear out of the LIeberals every day.


19 posted on 12/03/2005 9:42:21 PM PST by rasblue
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To: kajingawd

I was including the US (market of over 280 million, plus 23 million Anglophonees outside Quebec). The US is, and would remain, Quebec's primary economic market.

I am not suggesting Quebec is becoming more separatist. I don't know, either way. My point is that separatists cannot face economic realities.

Part of the reason separatists claim they need a separate state is to maintain Quebec's language and culture. That is more likely within Confederation than outside it.


20 posted on 12/04/2005 12:31:37 PM PST by instantgratification
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