Posted on 12/05/2005 6:56:18 AM PST by 1rudeboy
IN THE next six months or so, the world has to agree on a new set of rules to reform global trade. Yet as trade ministers prepare for a critical meeting in Hong Kong next week, their ultimate choices could be between no reform at all, or reform that barely moves the goalposts.
That prospect might seem odd to Australians, who are used to governments promoting free trade regardless of public opinion.
But that is not the attitude of governments in most of the World Trade Organisation's 150 member countries. They approach trade negotiations as opportunities to gain market access, not to give it.
And so, after four years of talking, the WTO's Doha round negotiations have failed to bridge a chasm on the central issue of trade reform: how to cut tariffs on farm produce so that low-cost farmers in countries such as Australia get access to the high-cost markets of Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the US.
A valuable new book edited by World Bank economists Kym Anderson and Will Martin,
Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda , shows how unbalanced trade rules are now.
In the rich countries, tariffs on manufactures now average just 3 per cent, yet tariffs on farm produce average 22 per cent. On some, they are astronomical: 94 per cent on sugar to the US, 153 per cent on beef to Europe, and 693 per cent on wheat to Japan.
Export subsidies are banned in manufacturing, yet thrive in agriculture. OECD farmers receive a staggering $A320 billion a year in subsidies. Anderson, an Adelaide economist, and Martin estimate that almost two-thirds of all potential gains from full trade liberalisation would come in agriculture.
Removing all trade barriers, say Anderson, Martin and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, would lift the world's output by $US287 billion ($A385 billion), as resources move from high-cost producers to low-cost producers, allowing far more to be produced.
On their numbers, all countries gain, although the big winners would be countries scrapping high farm protection Europe, Japan, Korea and Taiwan as cheap imported food frees up money for consumers and governments to spend on other things.
Australia would be another winner, with a 1 per cent rise in national income. That's not much, but at least it's more than the 2.4 billion people in low-income countries would get.
John Howard, who keeps telling us trade reform is the cure for global poverty, might take note: the World Bank estimates that complete free trade would lift the incomes of the world's poor by just $A9 a head. It would give more income to the 24 million people in Australia and New Zealand than to the 720 million in sub-Saharan Africa. Of course, that's just modelling, based on assumptions that could be wrong: such as assuming that elderly European, Japanese and Korean farmers whose farms become unviable will find jobs doing something else.
Real-world outcomes can be very different from those in models.
The WTO's members are not flocking to the free trade banner. There has been real progress in some areas, but unless ministers can bridge the chasm on farm tariffs, that too could be lost.
There have been two big steps. The European Union independently reformed its farm subsidies so they do not act as price supports, began slashing its sugar and cotton subsidies, and offered to scrap export subsidies.
On tariffs, however, the EU's proposal would exempt up to 175 types of farm products from change enough, say Australian officials, to block any real market opening.
Second, key developing countries such as India and Brazil have flagged that they are willing to cut manufacturing tariffs if the EU, Japan and Korea agree to genuinely open their agricultural markets.
But EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson insists that he has offered everything he can under the mandate given him by the 25 EU governments. The EU right now cannot even agree on its budget. A second round of farm reforms could be beyond it.
Back when the WTO was known as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, it was seen as the only international body that worked. But that was so because the EU and US decided the outcomes, and everyone else had to accept them.
The WTO no longer works that way, as developing country ministers showed at Seattle (1999) and Cancun (2003), when they refused to be railroaded into supporting the developed countries' agenda.
The question now is whether the WTO can work at all. If not, the trade game now is every man for himself.
And China, with its undervalued currency, will keep winning.
Honestly, decreased, because I got wise to debt living, and live within my means now. As well as more and more income going to health care, energy and general inflation.. it has flatlined or declined since 2001.
You don't build wealth on debt... citing "standard of living" when its being payed for by debt is a fools errand. But, hey... enjoy the errand.
You realize all you're doing is proving my point, right?
And demonstrated by you in reply #15.
Point? You actually have one?
I suspect you're right. There's going to be quite a wild time in this country when we find we've been living beyond our means. I think of what happened to Japan when their real estate bubble burst and I shudder.
"I just love that mentality. Those cheap prices are great until our paychecks start dropping along with them."
Another poster said it very well: It's like watching someone cut their own throat in slow motion.
It's a reflection of our "don't worry about the future or R&D, just make a profit this quarter" business environment. We are so taken by instant gratification, that when the impact hits, people will be totally confused.
"That's right. Buying (unnecessarily) expensive stuff and a falling portfolio are not only ideals, but evidence of patriotism. /sarc"
I know you are anti-union, and somewhat confused. That's ok, I can be patient with the challenged.
And how will you weather the storm when your domestic customer base shrinks? Can you expand your markets to China where the average wage is a fraction of what it is here? I wonder.
You just wait 1 year; no, 5 years; no, wait, 10 years; no, really, in 15 years, Chief, that NAFTA agreement is really going to kill our economy and cause a massive loss of wealth and incredible unemployment. Then you preach to me the virtues of free trade.
That's is not what I meant at all. I meant that your reply #15 is a fair demonstration of the Alinsky Method.
Governments "redistribute" wealth (sad, but true). Individuals acting of free will do not.
Really? What part?
In a sovereign society the people who earn the money can do whatever they want to with that money. It's no surprise to me that you would want to attempt to control this from happening so that everything stays within the state.
My home in 1970
Parents income 40,000
Bought house in 67, 50,000. payment 400.00 mo. 15 years 12 left.
Bought new car 5,000, 1000 down, pmt 200 mo/24 mos.
major credit cards maybe 6. Zero balance carryforward.
2 color tv's paid for
furniture paid for
total outgo 30,000.
taxes 5,000 yr
5,000 per year added to savings.
Today
Income 200,000
House 1,200.000. mortgage 1,000,000 PITI 8,500 mo. 30 years 27 left.
car 35000 no down 800 mo.
2nd car 20,000 no down 500 mo.
major credit cards 6. 20,000 balance carryforward. 500 pmt
taxes 50,000 yr.
total outgo 139,600
savings 10,400.
Who is better off??
Again,
You confuse DEBT with wealth. Even with an income nearly 5 times the average household, you still are in debt up to your eyeballs.
On an income of 200,000 you only save 10k a year.. yet your parents who only made 1/5th of your income, put away 5k a year... let alone the real dollar difference in the 35 years.... Guess who's building wealth, and who isn't?
You are chasing a fools errand. DEBT living is not wealth creation.
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