Posted on 12/07/2005 9:02:28 AM PST by areafiftyone
The most recent poll by Scott Rasmussen shows Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice moving up from 19 percent of the vote in the 2008 Republican primary to 24 percent. That moves her into second place, right behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who continues to lead the pack at 26 percent.
Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), who had previously been running second, slipped to 21 percent. Lagging behind were former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) at 7 percent and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.) at 5 percent. None of the others was above 5 percent.
It has been a good month for Rice, even as President Bush has run into a mass of troubles. Her favorability in the Fox News poll tops 70 percent, and her successes in negotiating an extension of American military bases in Central Asia and in working out an accord between Israel and the PLO on the Gaza Strip crossings demonstrated great effectiveness.
And, as Rice has been moving up, her potential competitors for the GOP nomination have been running into trouble. Giuliani now faces the possibility of an indictment of Bernard Kerik on allegations he took bribes during his tenure as Giuliani’s corrections commissioner, before the mayor named him to lead the Police Department. A high-profile scandal affecting the poster boy of the Giuliani administration will do the former mayor no good. Nor will Rudy’s support for choice on abortion, backing for gun control and support for gay civil unions help him much in the GOP field.
McCain, for his part, seems to be placing himself out of the mainstream of GOP politics, teaming with Virginia’s Sen. John Warner and South Carolina’s Sen. Lindsey Graham in demanding tough legislative controls over interrogation of terrorist suspects, much to the dismay of Vice President Cheney. Already, Rasmussen reports that the Arizona senator is the first choice of those who disapprove of Bush’s handling of the presidency, a poor base from which to seek the Republican nomination. Once again, McCain is proving that he would rather be right than be president and is demonstrating how to accomplish his goal.
Frist has not recovered from his loss of power to the Gang of 14 in the Senate or his overreaching in threatening to use the nuclear option of eliminating the filibuster of judicial nominees. His support of stem-cell research, while commendable, cuts across his efforts to court the religious right. Most of all, the basis of his financial world — his investment in hospital conglomerate HCA Inc. — has come under SEC scrutiny because the senator sold his shares one month before their price dropped 9 percent in one day, based on a warning from the company about potentially weakened earnings. Whether this sale turns out to smack of insider trading or not, the affair may sap his viability as a GOP contender.
And Allen has suffered a loss of prestige with the victory of Democrat Jerry Kilgore over Republican Tim Kaine for governor in his home state after the senator had vigorously backed the unsuccessful GOP contender.
All this inside baseball two years before the start of the campaign may mean little in the end, but it does go to show what might become the future dynamic of the Republican race: Non-candidate Rice scores diplomatic triumphs that raise her support and political attractiveness while the other contenders for the nomination are embroiled in the unseemly art of politics, facing the usual round of negatives, investigations and embarrassments.
Rice repeatedly denies any interest in running for president but may have to spend the next two years facing a boom in the demand for her to run. The looming threat of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Rice’s excellent performance as secretary of state are kindling a boom for her candidacy akin to those that animated Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1952 run and Robert F. Kennedy’s 1968 bid for the Democratic nomination.
Will Rice eventually be overpowered and convinced to run? I believe that this woman will do her duty to her country, as she always has. If it is clear that only she can defeat Hillary and the others who might be able to do so — Guiliani and McCain — falter early in the process, then she will run. If her supporters build it, she will run.
The best person for president wouldn't have the job.
He's selling his Condi vs. Hillary book.
To help sell his most recent book?
In politics, that's usually a sure sign that someone is interested.
"Giuliani now faces the possibility of an indictment of Bernard Kerik on allegations he took bribes during his tenure as Giuliani’s corrections commissioner, before the mayor named him to lead the Police Department"
That did make Rudy look bad. But I'm not sure Condi has been able to freely express her positions since she does such a good job of representing the President.
I put no credibility in these polls. What I do is to look at the betting line (Intrade) and McCain has a decided advantage. I think he will likely be the candidate although many here do not like him. In the end they will support him or learn to say President Hillary Clinton. (If he is the Republican candidate.)
Rice may yet wind up as the VP candidate but as president, I doubt it. Allen and Guilliani are the other two possibles. Warner and Bayh on the Democratic side. Warner would be the most dangerous. Hillary has too much baggage unless the Republicans sit on their hands which would be equivalent to cutting off our noses to spite our faces (like we did in 1992).
Don't count out Liddy Dole to run in '08 against Hitlery.
It should be a rule that family can only run for president twice if a member of that family won.
A Giuliani-Rice ticket would be unbeatable (especially after Condi has finished explaining the Second Amendment to Rudy).
That means the Kennedys could still run..........
She also said her parents once told her that she could be anything she wanted including President.
She said, "I believed them."
She's not running she said so - many times.Well then of course that means she's not running. When a politician says they're not running, they don't ever change their mind later and run.
If McCain is the Republican candidate I'll vote for the Constitution Party. McCain is a major RINO.
(If what I just wrote makes you sad or angry,
There are a lot of people who would vote for her for that reason alone.
One of the problems with politics these days is the personality type that seems to be irresistably attracted to running for office.
It explains why Washington, our state capitals and City Hall are filled with petty tyrants whose shortest path to orgasm is the passing of intrusive laws which affect every aspect of our daily lives.
W's new nickname for Condi is said to be "44"
LOL I really don't think she wants to go thru the scrutiny of running for president. Personally, I don't blame her.
Giuliani Rice
a winning ticket
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