| By Gerald Butt Middle East analyst |
Syria is not the country it used to be: buttoned up and oblivious to changes in the world at large.
Under intense international pressure since the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri last February, cracks are starting to appear in the once solid shell around the regime in Damascus.
The Syrian leadership seems rattled.
The apparent suicide of the Interior Minister Ghazi Kanaan will not have helped matters.
| In his post as interior minister, Kanaan symbolized the awesome power of Syria's security and intelligence apparatus. His untimely death demonstrates a previously unimaginable vulnerability in that apparatus |
Whatever the circumstances of his death, the extra international attention that it has focused on a regime that for years has preferred to conduct its business behind closed doors will be unwelcome.
Even the way that the minister died is arousing further speculation about Syria's possible role in the assassination of Hariri - involvement that the government in Damascus has strenuously denied.
Syrian officials insist that Kanaan killed himself in an act of patriotic honour because of the slur on his reputation and that of his country.
Suspicions
Some sceptics, on the other hand, are suggesting that the interior minister decided to end his life because he knew he would be implicated when the results of the inquiry into Mr Hariri's death were published later this month.
Critics and opponents of the Syrian government go even further.
Mr Kanaan was killed, they say, in order that the blame for the assassination of the Lebanese prime minister could be pinned on him alone.
| President Assad faces a monumental challenge in keeping his regime together under these various pressures - and in the unwelcome spotlight of international attention |
They back their argument by pointing out the manner in which the news was released - the time, place and circumstances of his death, encapsulated in an uncharacteristically speedy and informative bulletin from the state news agency.
In the end, it matters little which version one chooses to believe.
The real damage is the fact that a very senior member of the Damascus regime, a man who for two decades orchestrated Syria's policies in Lebanon, has gone.
In his post as interior minister, Kanaan symbolized the awesome power of Syria's security and intelligence apparatus.
His untimely death demonstrates a previously unimaginable vulnerability in that apparatus.
Syrian 'drifting'
But even before Kanaan's death, there were signs that Syria, under the leadership of its young and relatively inexperienced president, Bashar al-Assad, was losing its way.
For example, Mr Assad's promises of political reform have largely evaporated after facing stiff opposition from leading members of the ruling clique in Damascus.
On the regional and international stage, too, Syria seems to be drifting - managing neither to live up to its previous image of the leading Arab state confronting Israel, nor to follow the path of many of its neighbours in liberalising its economy and developing closer links with the West.
The withdrawal of Syrian troops and security services from Lebanon after Mr Hariri's assassination was a further setback - coming against the background of strong American criticism of Damascus' alleged role in failing to support the war on international terrorism and in allowing insurgents to cross into Iraq.
Syria's persistent rejection of these allegations has done nothing to stop them.
Leadership must adapt
President Assad faces a monumental challenge in keeping his regime together under these various pressures - and in the unwelcome spotlight of international attention.
Those pressures, of course, will intensify if - as is being widely speculated - the UN report into Hariri's assassination implicates senior figures in Damascus.
Having said all this, it would be wrong to suggest that the long-entrenched regime in Syria is in a state of collapse.
But if the country is to ride out the storm, then the Damascus leadership will need to adapt to new realities.
Keeping the country buttoned up and oblivious to the world - a policy that served President Assad's father so well for decades - is today no longer an option.
