Posted on 12/13/2005 5:34:16 PM PST by saganite
Looking at the last term of the Drake Equation, we see that it relates to the lifetime of technological civilizations how long they last as technological (meaning interstellar communicating) entities. The three biggest considerations for our civilization at the moment could be characterized as a) getting along with each other, b) getting along with the environment, and c) staying technologically alert for large-scale concerns from space. As an example of the last, the dinosaurs had over 200 million years to develop a comet deflector, but never did so. Some dinosaurs were bipedal, had opposable claws, and were pretty intelligentso why didnt they, for example, invent space travel? Well, thats a topic for another essay. Meanwhile, lets stick to a few of the things we might want to deal with "out there" at various times in the future, from a few thousand to a few billion years from now.
Magnetic Field Reversal
The Earths magnetic field is thought to be generated by a dynamo effect that is, the movement of charged particles in its huge iron and nickel core as it spins. Other planets have magnetic fields also, and there seems to be some relationship between the strength of the magnetic field with the size and spin rate of the magnetic core. Jupiter, with a huge core and a 10-hour rotation period, generates a massive magnetic field, for example, and spacecraft sent there have to be specially built to withstand this intense field. You may remember the science fiction movie Outland with Sean Connery stranded in a mining colony on Io, one of Jupiters moons. However, Io would be uninhabitable since the magnetic field of Jupiter causes a 5 million ampere electric current to flow through it.
However, magnetic fields can also be helpful. They can protect the inhabitants of the planet from high energy particles from, for example, the solar wind. When the high energy particles from the Sun encounter the Earths magnetic field, they are deflected toward the poles, causing beautiful auroral "curtains" of color as they hit the atmosphere. Without the magnetic field of the Earth, these high energy particles could do damage to biology on Earth.
When rocks containing magnetite cool from volcanoes or are baked (as in clay pottery), they record the direction of the magnetic field of the Earth at the time of cooling. It turns out, from examining rocks of various ages, that the Earth has reversed its magnetic field many times the last about 750,000 years ago (the average being about every few hundred thousand years). Recent measurements of ancient pottery and other evidence suggest that the Earths magnetic field may be declining perhaps getting ready for an overdue reversal. This could take place within the next couple of thousand years. If the Earths magnetic field is just beginning to reverse, it would certainly be important for us to protect ourselves from the high energy particles of the solar wind and of space. It would not be as devastating an event as, for example, a comet impact, but it does indicate that we do not have the luxury of indulging in another Dark Age over the next thousand years or so. If civilization is to maintain itself, we need to be on our technological "toes" pretty much from now on.
Moon Stabilizes Earths Rotation
The most popular theory for the origin of the moon is that it came from the Earth. We can calculate evolutionary histories of the moons orbit as it moved away from the Earth after formation. (It is still moving away due to the Earths tidal pull at about one inch per year. The majority of the tidal dragging comes from Earths rotational slowdown, with most being caused by waters dragging over the fairly shallow Bering Sea.) In doing some of these kinds of calculations for Mars, it was discovered that the direction of Mars rotational axis could flip rather suddenly. Now this is not the normal "precession" (as it is called) of a few degrees that changes, for example, our north star though the millennia. Mars was calculated to have flipped its rotation axis up to 90 degrees in as little as a couple of million years. This was a result of the orbital angular momentum, under certain circumstances, being transferred to the rotational angular momentum and causing a coupling that led to such a flip in rotation axis direction.
So why has this not occurred on Earth, whose axis has seemingly not flipped by more than a few degrees? The apparent explanation is that the Moon absorbs any transfer of orbital to rotational angular moment, preventing the flip.
Would such a flip be important? It could get very serious like the time a couple of hundred million years ago when all the continents were combined into one big continent called "Pangaea"if the Earths rotation axis flipped such that this one big continent became a polar continent like Antarctica. So, it would appear that a moon is required for a stable planet with life.
This was perhaps surprising news to folks that would like to see habitable planets widespread in the galaxy requiring, as it does, both an earthlike planet in the circumstellar habitable zone as well as a fairly large satellite. This would seem to rule out habitable planets being very common. However, additional research into the rotational histories of the planets shows that the Earth used to spin a lot faster. If the earth spins faster, that also acts as a protection against flipping of the rotation axis. So, perhaps if the moon had not come off the Earth, our world would still be spinning fast enough to stabilize itself against flipping. Thus there may be many other habitable planets without a large moon, but the inhabitants will have even fewer hours in their day than we do.
The moon, of course, is now perfectly placed to exactly cover the solar disk during eclipses. This perfect fit has allowed, for example, a test of General Relativity, the uncovering of the element helium, and the discovery of the solar corona. And clearly the moon has been a great stimulus and practice ground for our first efforts at space travel. However, moving out at an inch a year, in about 1.6 billion years the moon will no longer be able to stabilize our planets spin. Well have to be ready for a climatologically wild ride by then unless we figure out what to do. Eventually the Earth will have the same rotation period as the moons orbit (i.e., the day will equal the month) and then the moon may be expected to fall back toward the Earth, forming a ring perhaps not dissimilar to those around Saturn. It will, no doubt, be a great show.
Here Comes Andromeda
We could talk about many more interesting phenomena, but perhaps the most spectacular will be the merging of the Andromeda spiral galaxy with the Milky Way in about six billion years. Although no stars will likely touch (the spacing between stars is huge), this interaction will most certainly gravitationally affect every star in both galaxies. The Milky Way, in its 12 billion year history, has swallowed up many smaller galaxies, but such a merger will be a unique experience. Every star is thought to have a cloud (called the "Oort Cloud" in our solar system) that consists of about a trillion comets. As the two galaxies merge, these comet clouds will get scrambled, causing increased impacts onto each stars inner planets. Billions of stellar systems being tidally flung around may also cause instability in the orbits of the planets around them.
Nicolai Kardashev has suggested that there could be three classes of civilizationsType I controlling the resources of its planet, Type II the resources of its star, and Type III the resources of its galaxy. At the moment we are estimated to be about type 0.1 or so. A Type II builds such things as Dyson spheres (structures encompassing the star so as to capture all of its energy). Clearly, a Type III civilization would be needed to deal with the merging of Andromeda with the Milky Way.
So, there we have it some items on the agenda for the next few billion years. We have some time for planning, but its important that we stay alertwe really cant afford to indulge in another extended Dark Age, for example. And who knows, we might make it to Type III before Andromeda gets here. If not, perhaps some other species in the galaxy may have gotten it together enough to help us out.
Thanks for that update. I thought .1 was a little low!
Why is he so worried about Dark Ages ?
The precondition for a Dark Age is a wave of barbarian conquest triggered by the superiority of the barbarian horse archer over the peasant spearman. That ended with the invention of firearms.
I guess i have time to order Pizza delivered.
Whew - almost scared me to death! First time I read it, I thought it said 1.6 million years...
Good. Maybe I'll finally be able to take a nap after lunch.
"_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _." = "BoyBeenIced."?
"looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking."
That's a big problem for growing crops for food. 2 weeks of constant darkness, not to mention the utility bills for your house to compensate for cold nights and hot days!
Hey Lancey,
Tell me again your favorite line from the movie "The Cinncinati Kid". Please!
Lancey Howard: "Gets down to what it's all about, doesn't it? Making the wrong move at the right time."
Cincinnati Kid:"Is that what it's all about?"
Lancey Howard: "Like life, I guess. You're good, kid, but as long as I'm around you're second best. You might as well learn to live with it."
Same reason we gave it up - the kids discovered more interesting things to do than studying. ;)
Some dinosaurs were bipedal, had opposable claws, and were pretty intelligentso why didnt they, for example, invent space travel?
Well there was that one good Star Trek Enterprise episode where the sentient dinosaurs of old earth just decided to leave the planet before the asteroid hit. But then they forgot about earth altogether.
I am going to mark these dates in my dayplanner so they don't sneak up on me.
We're dead, Jim.
Right?
Antartica used to be a warm, tropical place. Fossils proved this. This fact was even mentioned in the latest film, "The March of the Penguins".
I would think that Antartica could have been victim of a "flip" eons ago.
That is why Antartica is one of many locations in where Atlantis used to be..
Looks like Uranus is "flipped" right now!
From the following link...
"Uranus is distinguished by the fact that it is tipped on its side. Its unusual position is thought to be the result of a collision with a planet-sized body early in the solar system's history. Voyager 2 found that one of the most striking influences of this sideways position is its effect on the tail of the magnetic field, which is itself tilted 60 degrees from the planet's axis of rotation.""
Collision? Perhaps not.
http://www.solarviews.com/eng/uranus.htm
Sounds like that intergalactic war a former Canadian politician was spewing about the other day.
In about 50 billion years. The Sun will have gone Nova long before this.
However, this is the cause of the leap second being accompished this month.
Ok, let us take a look at the Moon.
How was the Moon formed?
There were at least five major ideas that were proposed as to the formation of the Moon.
Fission The Moon split off from the Earth.
Capture The Moon was captured by the gravity of the Earth.
Condensation The Moon coalesced out of the same stuff the Earth did.
Colliding Planetesimals Formed from colliding Planetesimals during the early formation of the solar system.
Collision A body collided with the Earth causing a piece of the Earths crust to form the Moon from a resultant ring produced by that collision
The evidence points to the collision theory. First, the Moon does not have an iron core. This pretty much rules out that it coalesced from the same cloud of debris that the Earth did. Second, throughout the solar system, the oxygen isotopes have been found to be different. If the Moon were captured, it too would not match the Earths oxygen isotope ratio (which it does). Fourth, by looking at the angular momentum and energy required, the theory that the Moon spun off the Earth after the Earth formed does not hold up.
This leaves us with the Collision theory as the best model we have for the formation of the Moon. The resultant collision caused a ring of debris from the Earths crust to form outside the Roche limit. If it had not, tidal forces would have not allowed for the Moon we see today.
A more in depth discussion of tidal locking since the Moon is tidal locked to the Earth. The reason the Moon keeps one face to the Earth (Its rotation on its axis matches the period of its orbit) is it is tidally locked to the Earth. Here is a more in depth explanation. The total angular momentum of the earth moon system, which is spin angular momentum plus the orbital angular momentum, is constant. (The Sun plays apart also) Friction of the oceans caused by the tides is causing the Earth to slow down a tiny bit each year. This is approximately two milliseconds per century causing the moon to recede by about 3.7 centimeters per year. As the Earth slows down, the Moon must recede to keep the total angular momentum a constant. In other words as the spin angular momentum of the earth decreases, the lunar orbital angular momentum must increase. Here is an interesting side note. The velocity of the moon will slow down as the orbit increases.
Another example of tidal locking is the orbit period and rotation of the planet Mercury. What is interesting about this one is that instead of a 1:1 synchronization where Mercury would keep one face to the Sun at all times, it is actually in a 2/3:1 synchronization. This is due to the High eccentricity of its orbit.
There also can be more than one body locked to each other. Lets take a look at the moon Io. Io is very nearly the same size as the Earths moon. It is approximately 1.04 times the size of the moon. There is a resonance between Io, Ganymede, and Europa. Io completes four revolutions for every one of Ganymede and two of Europa. This is due to a Laplace Resonance phenomenon. A Laplace Resonance is when more than two bodies are forced into a minimum energy configuration.
And finally a look at the asteroid belt since there are many that are tidally locked to Jupiter as well:
The asteroid belt has an estimated total combined mass of less than 1 tenth of the Earths moon. Jupiter has a profound effect on the asteroid belt. Jupiter has a semimajor axis of 5.2 AU (1 AU is the distance from the Sun to the Earth) and it has an orbital period of 11.86 years. Since the asteroids are not all at the same distance from the sun, some of them will have an orbital period of one half of Jupiter. This puts that asteroid in a 2:1 orbital resonance with Jupiter. The result of this resonance are gaps called Kirkwoods gaps. So here is the rub; why did not these asteroids for a planet? The reason is the gravitational force of Jupiter. It perturbs the asteroids giving them random velocities relative to each other. Another effect of both Jupiter and the Sun on the asteroid belt is a group of asteroids that both precede and follow Jupiter in its orbit by 60 degrees. These asteroids are known as the Trojans.
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